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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

93% of Stocks Are Up Today

If you have the unfortunate fate of owning a stock that is down today, you are starkly in the minority of only 7%. In other words, you’re part of an elite group of individuals, cursed from the top down, an investor extraordinaire of magnanimous and stupid occasion.

I’ll spare you the details of why or how this rally will fail and everyone buying today is a sucker. The fact is, stocks are up, so be happy about it and rejoice. There are many things that are imperfect about the economy and the market; but today’s isn’t one of them.

Today is a hugely important day in the big scheme of things. We’re either topping out now or about to embark on a new journey much, much higher. It’s not often that we get to enjoy 93% up days and when they happen it usually means something good has taken place. Our elected officials, as perverted and drug addled as they are, managed to strike a deal. It’s not the best deal, but at least it made Grover Norquist soil his pajamas.

I’m up more than 2% today, a terrific start of the new year and feel fortunate that I didn’t listen to the devils on Twitter who were so gallantly long FAZ an TZA into today’s “fuck you, you’re dead” trading session.

My top 3 positions are VHC, HMC and EXK. I own other stocks too, such as JRCC, AAPL, RS and FB. But my destiny, if there is such a thing, lies between the brief(ed) case of an aggressive barrister and the alloy of a katana.

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Fly Buy: $VHC

I added to my VHC position because I’m fucking nuts.

Disclaimer: If you buy VHC because of this post, you will fall down an idle manhole. And, you may lose money.

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A Red Hot Market Can Scald You

This market is on fire, so much so The PPT just registered its highest overbought reading ever. It remains to be seen if the score is a precursor to a significant top. But one thing is for certain: if you played this rally perfectly, reward yourself by taking some profits.

The first week of January is the most important trading week of the year. It sets the tone and everyone pays attention. Nevertheless, you’d have to be an idiot not to lock in some profits here.

As for me, I went into today with underwater positions, with investment time frames of beyond short term. I added to my HMC position first thing this morning, emails were sent out to PPT members, when the stock was up 65 cents. I’m not selling because I don’t think the stock is going higher; I know it is.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the year of the samurai, the year Japan kicks China in the face and cuts off the heads of overzealous Koreans because it’s fashionable. The yen is falling rather freely, which helps exporters dramatically. For the entirety of 2012, I am bullish on HMC, TM, NMR and MFG. Long shot plays that can do well too include SNE, CAJ and PC.

With today’s purchases, I am down to 25% cash.

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Fly Buy: $HMC

I added to my HMC position, making it 20% of assets.

Disclaimer: If you buy HMC because of this post, your only son will never become a true samurai warrior. And, you may lose money.

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The City Square Rumbles With the Sound of Medieval Machinery

The city square was buzzing with onlookers, as the dick-guillotines were dragged and pushed to the center of the city. One by one, short sellers of all kinds were rounded up by law abiding citizens and placed inside of ‘penis liberators’, all the while the good tax payers of the city threw cabbage, garbage and bales of hay at the accused.

I sat there with pen and pad, and nothing more than a cup of tea to keep me warm. The weather was furious, well below negative 40 degrees fahrenheit–but the crowd of city tax payers and members of the great working class union behaved with the same zeal as a vacationing pleb somewhere in the tropic of capricorn. It was mandated long ago by our leader, Benjamin Bernanke, that ‘any and all short sellers shall be castrated and pushed from fertile lands, outcasted by society and labeled pariah by all who are good and just.’

NOTE: A portrait of the days events can be seen here.

Top picks: JRCC, EXK, HMC

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A Fresh Start

I’m very ritualistic about the new year and make it a point to hit the ground running with winning picks. Truth is, I’ve taken all of my research and put it on the back burner until this fiscal cliff shit is over with. I ended up 11% for 2012, falling flat on my face in December, shedding almost 10% for the month. Had the year ended in November, I’d be a champion today. Instead, I’m a fucktard with an underperforming investment track record.

The gains that I enjoyed from 2006-2010 can no longer be referenced after underperforming the tape for two consecutive years (I was +6% in 2011). I don’t make New Year’s resolutions; I’ll leave that to the fat asses. But 2013 is a do or die year for me, in a variety of ways.

First, I need to establish a very strong pimp hand early, in order to shut people up. That means I need to be right and often, preferably in grandiose fashion. After I make my gains, I need to keep them by utilizing a proprietary asset diversification plan that I concocted many years ago. I have no choice but to implement such a plan, since I can no longer trust my animalistic instincts to preserve wealth any longer.

Following yesterday’s romp in the markets, we are very close to overbought territory, not exactly an ideal time to invest money. However, a lot depends on the retarded deal coming out from Washington, which will most likely take the path of least pain. Meaning: prepare to see the dollar drop, precious metals rise and stocks do well.

I’m so fucking pessimistic right now I’ve chewed myself to the other side to optimistic. If the market wants higher, I’m not going to fight it.

NOTE: Since MAXIMUS had to resign from the interim tabbed blogger position, due to family concerns, Elizamae was appointed interim interim tabbed blogger.

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Reader Request: “The Fly’s” Top 15 Follows on Twitter

This will be in random order, as I am unable to quantify the true value of human beings at this time. It should be noted that the true utility of Twitter, for me, is to use it for real time news. To that end, I follow hundreds of news agencies and reporters. Howsoever, for sheer amusement, I do enjoy the following people to exercise the utility of laughter. NOTE: this list does not include the mandatory follows of the iBankCoin staff, which are located at the top of site.

@The_Real_Hmmm

@GapandYap

@KeithMcCullough

@Zerohedge

@TheStalwart

@Nouriel

@Jeffmacke

@EricJackson

@Urbanenglish

@SorenMacbeth

@Vcutrader

@Reformedbroker

@UpsideTrader

@BeccyMeehan

@Cr3dit

Under different circumstances I would offer a brief description of each person to help illuminate as to why I follow them. However, considering the fact that I am still drunk from last night, I am going to leave it up to your imagination.

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Goodbye 2012

Happy New Year’s everyone. Thank you for reading and supporting the site. I’ll see you fuckers in 2013.

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Hello Fellow Hostages

Since we’re all hostages of our government, with threats of imminent financial disaster looming, I thought now would be the appropriate time to play one of my favourite scenes of all time.

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Expecting the Worst Since 1976

I always expect the worst; therefore, whenever something good happens, it’s an upside surprise.

People can never disappoint you when you fully expect them to fuck up. The same goes for The Fiscal Cliff negotiations and everything that comes with it. I was going to dedicate tonight to making predictions, like some sort of sorcerer, foretelling the events of 2013. But I lost interest after reflecting upon how ridiculous it makes me look, considering the fact that nothing can be predicted in a country that is designed like a carnivale funhouse.

The mirrors are wacky and so are the patrons. This is the reason why I’ve thrown out all of my glorified ideas of ‘thesis trading’ and sticking with core fundamentals. It’s all a crock of shit, so I might as well acknowledge it and trade accordingly.

There is plenty of diversification in the ETF world and I will be using them a lot more in 2013.

In the meantime, I’m long an enormous amount of VHC, given to me by seemingly smart and connected folks. I’ve watched in sheer horror a +20% winner turn into a loss and there is nothing that I can do about it. The options market is illiquid, as well as the stock. People who are up are selling to lock in lower capital gains rates and the Cramer crowd are dumping for fear of losing their shirts. I imagine this is happening to many stocks right now. It’s best to reevaluate your investments after the New Year.

With regards to VHC, they have a court date on 1/15 and I find it hard to believe that anything coming out of that hearing will be negative for the share price. Shortly afterwards, in March, they are scheduled to beat CSCO over the head with clawhammers, claiming ‘willful infringement.’ There will be plenty of catalysts that will drive VHC higher in 2013. I have to remind myself that the trading  taking place now is nothing more than amateurish tomfoolery.

Regarding the cliff, as predicted, we’re going over it. I don’t think they will come to an agreement until late January, maybe even later. The reaction might be negative; but rest assured, like all other frantic crisis we’ve endured these last few years, it will be used to fuel the fire for a fanatical short squeeze and subsequent upside explosion in stock prices.

Until then, I am 35% cash.

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