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Dr. Fly

18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.

Long Till Tax Day

I didn’t allocate any money, aside from a small purchase of HMC. I’ll wait until tomorrow to take a stab at the market. There’s some decent conviction in this market and tech is leading the way up. If AAPL could get going, the Nasdaq will take off.

I was going to buy ELLI on this dip, but opted to wait and see what sort of news materializes. Frankly, I am not in the market to buy dips. With the money that I’ve earmarked to invest, I want momentum.

XIV is probably going to be the best investment over the long term. You can’t go wrong betting against volatility. What a suckers bet going long the VIX.

I’m most bullish on Japan, holding both HMC and SNE. I believe TM is on the verge of conducting a “one hundred dollar roll” soon. Buy in now for a 6-10 point run.

Gold/silver bounced today, but the sector is utterly useless. There is no discernible edge going long any miner. They’re run by criminals with black teeth. Their workers are whipped with leather to work and kicked into holes 10,000 feet deep. If you are an idiot who believes in inflation, go buy GLD. I’d avoid any and all miners, not only because of the 16th century working conditions that persist in these middle earth hell holes, but because the stocks do not trade according to reason.

If we are to follow seasonal trends, the market is going up from here until tax day. However, I strongly suggest avoiding all earnings plays.

 

 

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The Bears Are at Zero

Facebook leads the way higher. All of a sudden, it is the top pick for Dan “ugly face” Niles, after being his top short. Every single person I know hates AAPL. They look at the iPhone and laugh at it, whilst texting perversion on their Samsung devices (traitors).

Early this morning, a Spanish bond auction went extremely well, solidifying the notion that the european crisis is over. If you think about all of the turmoil that continent endured, GDP growth can only get better in 2013, under a much more benign economic environment.

There are some big movers in the market today, like BBY, MY, NOK, YELP and VOXX–but it’s only a 65% breadth day. There is room for improvement here.

I’m bullish and will be allocating 20% of my cash today.

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Fly Buy: $HMC

I added to my HMC position.

Disclaimer: If you buy HMC because of this post, the next time you are driving on the highway, your brakes will stop working. And, you may lose money.

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Reckless Government Spending Stock Plays

I’ve been honing in on companies who suck milk from the government tit. Wouldn’t you rather own a business dependent on a stark mad, out of control, government, rather than a populous subject to instant-firing and subsequent impoverished state?

Thus far, I’ve identified the following names as beneficiaries to the larges of government.



PRSC

The Providence Service Corporation provides and manages government sponsored social services and non-emergency transportation services. It offers home and community based counseling services, which include home based and intensive home based counseling, substance abuse treatment services, school support services, correctional services, and workforce development; and foster care and therapeutic foster care services. The company also provides not-for-profit managed services comprising administrative support, information technology, and accounting and payroll services; intake, assessment, and referral services; monitoring services; and case management services. In addition, the company provides non-emergency transportation management services to state Medicaid programs, local government agencies, hospital systems, health maintenance organizations, private managed care organizations, and commercial insurers, as well as to individuals with limited mobility, people with limited means of transportation, people with disabilities, and Medicaid members. Further, it offers school transportation services to school children, including special needs students who are physically fragile or mentally ill. The company has operations primarily in the District of Columbia, United States; and British Columbia, Canada.

MMS
MAXIMUS, Inc. provides business process services to government health and human services agencies in the United States, Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom. It focuses on administering government-sponsored programs, such as Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), health care reform, welfare-to-work, Medicare, child support enforcement, and other government programs. The company operates in two segments, Health Services and Human Services. The Health Services segment offers business process and administrative support services, as well as consulting services for state, provincial, and federal programs, including Medicaid, CHIP, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, health care reform, Medicare, and Health Insurance British Columbia. This segment’s services include government health insurance program administration, health insurance program eligibility and enrollment, eligibility and enrollment modernization for government health benefit programs, health insurance exchange design and operations, application assistance and independent enrollment counseling, premium payment processing and administration, objective and evidence-based health appeals, independent medical reviews, health plan oversight, eHealth solutions with the Medigent product suite, Medicaid Management Information System planning and oversight, program consulting, and consumer outreach and education services. The Human Services segment provides various business process, case management, job training, and support services. This segment’s services comprise welfare-to-work services; child support case management, customer contact center operations, and program and systems consulting services; management tools and professional consulting services for education institutions; K-12 special education case management solutions; program consulting services; and tax credit and employer services

SWI
SolarWinds, Inc. designs, develops, markets, sells, and supports enterprise information technology (IT) infrastructure management software for IT professionals in various organizations in the United States and internationally. The company offers enterprise-class IT management products, including Network Performance Monitor, a server-based fault and performance management platform to minimize network downtime; Network Performance Monitor modules, a series of add-ons; network configuration manager to automate the processes of network device discovery, network inventory management, and network change management; user device tracker, a server-based switch port management tool; scalability engines to increase the scale of a number of the products; and enterprise operations console to provide web-based views of various instances of Network Performance Monitor modules and Application Performance Monitor. Its enterprise-class network and IT management products also comprise Application Performance Monitor, a server-based availability and performance management system for applications and server infrastructure; patch manager to automate the process of deploying, managing, and reporting on patches and configuration settings; and synthetic end user monitor to capture the user steps of any web application and monitor the end-user experience; storage manager that combines reporting, monitoring, and notification on the performance of storage resources; backup profiler to provide a consolidated view of the status of backup operations; virtualization manager to manage various aspects of virtual server infrastructure; and log and event manager to automate the collection and interpretation of logs. In addition, the company provides free tools, such as desktop, laptop, server-based, or internet-based applications; and tools and toolsets for specific solutions of routine and complicated tasks.

GMK
Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of corn flour, wheat flour, tortillas, and other related products. Its products include rice, oats, packaged tortillas, grits, snacks, hearts of palm, tortilla chips, corn chips, and potato chips, as well as flatbreads comprising pita, naan, chapatti, pizza bases, and piadina. The company also designs, manufactures, and sells machines for the production of tortillas and tortilla chips under the TORTEC and BATITEC names. Its brands include JUANA, TIA BERTA, DECASA, ROBIN HOOD, POLAR, MONICA, ROBIN HOOD, LASSIE, REPOSADA, PODEROSA, SELECTA, DEMASA, FLOR DE TRIGO, MISIÓN, MASECA, MISSION, GUERRERO, TORTIMASA, MASARICA, MINSA, TORTI RICA, TOSTY, RUMBA, and LA TICA. The company offers its products to independent distributors, supermarkets, wholesalers, bakeries, cookie and pasta manufacturers, small grocery stores, tortilla and tortilla chip manufacturers, snack manufacturers, mass merchandisers, independent stores, food processors, restaurants, food service distributors, schools, hospitals, and military, as well as to governmental social welfare and distribution programs. It operates in the United States, Mexico, Venezuela, Central America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.

I am sure there are many more government lackey plays. If you happen to know any, feel free to share. In case you’re wondering what I am up to, it is to expand my current investment universe to include new names through traditional research. I’d also like to address the lack of comportment taking place in the comments section. Understand something and know your place. “The Fly” has made money every single year since he’s been blogging here, on an annual basis, and many years prior. I have an expansive track record and history in navigating the markets and do not shy away from the down times.

“The Fly” will rise up and drive rail spikes through the heads of his enemies. Just wait and see.

 

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Some Names Worth Mention

I’ve narrowed down my list of stocks that conform with certain growth and fundamental attributes that I favor.

Thus far, I am impressed with AMBA (they own the hi-def market for cameras) and ELLI, mixed on ULTI and ALXN.

Have a listen to the ELLI call and see for yourself. Housing is back and these guys are killing it.

Back to listening to calls.

On deck: BCEI, NCT, ECL, ERII, FLT, MWIV, RTEC, SNTS and SWI.

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Say Hello To Your New Technology Market Leaders

Minimum market caps of $5 billion, most up over past 3 months.

Winners

Losers

So Facebook is now leading the market higher, as AAPL makes new lows. Do you see how difficult that trade was to pull off? Just 3 months ago, AAPL was riding high and FB was wallowing in misery. The lesson to be learned here is nothing lasts forever and try to avoid following the herds, for they are wrong, more often than not.

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Hand in Your Guns For Solar Panels

Since the monumental win by Obama in November, solar stocks have ripped to the upside. If you take a look above, you will bear witness to staggering one month returns. I dare you to buy into the craze. You know they always last.

Separately, I’m awaiting an announcement regarding executive action against gun holders in America. Like it or not, the constitution isn’t being respected anymore. You cannot do anything about it. Let that sink in.

The government is going to protect you from criminals by stripping you of the tools that serve to defend you against them. The good news, post gun confiscation, is that gun crimes will plummet. Nevertheless, you will be forced to do mortal combat with your local burglar’s– hand to hand. I suggest taking some karate classes and get that creatine flowing into your bloodstream.

The demographics are changing and liberalism is attractive to an increasingly struggling and dependent populous. Feel free to leave if you don’t like it; but be careful of what country you’re moving to–as we might attack it later on.

I’m chilling, lamped up in my office 40% cash–looking for ideas. PPT members can view my immediate buy list for the stocks I am researching. I will be going old school on my next pick, having referenced the past 4 quarter’s conference calls before buying a share. It’s so important to hear the cadence of the CEO’s of these companies during calls to discern if they’re genuine.

HMC and VHC are my biggest positions–everything else is minor.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvobHRFWDrk

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My Legacy Positions Are Almost Gone

I sold out of EXK, effectively winding down all of my old, legacy positions sans VHC, FB and a few olde manned positions. The month of December was a very dark period for me and I am glad to move past it. I’m not proud to keep booking losses, but it’s better to get done with them instead of letting them fester.

As of right now, my #1 thesis trade is long Japan. Of course I am looking for new ideas and have missed out on plenty of superb ideas that have run past me, such as the recent cocaine gorilla run in casinos.

It appears Mr. Loeb took down a 9% stake in HLF, despite Bill Ackman’s 300 page report–panning it as a ponzi scheme. I am sure we will all find great entertainment in watching two spoiled rotten billionaires battle it out over a nefariously run multi-level marketing company.

Homebuilders are running higher and I’m pissed off for booking a quick gain in BZH. I am reexamining my options in the space.

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Time to Exit the Retard Zone

I’ve thought long and hard about this and have concluded that I need to eliminate yet another industry from my investment menu: precious metals. Perhaps it’s coincidence, or not, but ever since the gold/silver trade has withered away, Jakegint has been scarce. I do believe Jakegint was sent to this site from space aliens to promote the purchase of gold/silver, since that’s what aliens do, apparently. My sources have informed me that he and his clan have mined all they could and returned to their planet, which would explain his absence.

It’s time to let go of the idea that American inflation is something to protect against. We’ve seen the Fed’s balance sheet triple over the years, yet oil and everything else hasn’t budged.

I will be selling out of EXK today and moving on.

What is investable?

That’s the trillion dollar question of course. We can’t buy dollar stores, like Dollar General, since the poor people don’t have enough money to buy vending machine toys anymore. The only venue left for real, sustainable, investment is technology. Innovation will not be limited to our borders and wayward economy. If something is good, it will sell on a global scale.

Domestically, I like housing and construction materials, but would prefer to buy a dip rather than chase up here.

Banking analysts are banging their African drums, while dancing around in their dashikis, praising the fundamentals of Citibank. I must be in some sort of parallel universe where this is actually true. I cannot get myself to invest in banks. It doesn’t appeal to me.

Semiconductors have become a perverted joke. They are nothing more than trading vehicles with zero leverage and pricing power for the long term. Companies like AAPL squeeze them. Biotech is gambling, unless of course you know some Doctors who are participating in trials who can offer you free advice in the form of data. That data can be used to guesstimate if the FDA will grant approval for their prospective drugs.

Restaurant stocks? Should I buy DIN because fatties love panned cakes or SONC because they just expanded their menu? Frankly, the only fast food joints worth anything are PNRA and CMG. Maybe retail names have a future, considering the wealthy have an insatiable demand for luxury. I am sure KORS is a terrific long term hold.

Decisions need to be made. I haven’t figured out where I want to put money now, but I know where I want to divest– and that is, good sir, to sell the shares of EXK and write it off along with the grace and presence of Jakegint.

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