My Birthday Gift to You

There are some things that offer inexorable upside with barely any downside. These investments are rare and only present themselves on rare occasions. My entire life has been marked with an everlasting race towards something I’m not sure what I was after. I once mentioned here that in one year I watched over 450 movies, read countless books, in a frantic attempt to “find truth.” The truth can be discovered in all sort of human creativity, the stories and the lessons passed on through generations, venerable facts of life.

In spite of being a learned man, I’ve also been blocked by a boiling rage inside of me and this has always been with me ever since I was a young boy. I recall using this anger to succeed, using this feeling inside of me as motivation to exact some bizarre revenge on enemies, both real and imagined. It’s a vindictive cycle that doesn’t real meld with living a happy life, replacing equanimity with consumerism and this false ideal of success.

At any rate, do me a favor for my 48th birthday, which is tomorrow, and watch this video starting at 2 mins.

I’ve just starting to meditate and feel somewhat of a fool for only now accepting that this could be a form of self control that is beneficial. I only post this in the off chance that it can help someone too. We all yearn for dynamic and eternal peace. This doesn’t mean we can’t fight for the things we deem as good and just, but perhaps it could remove some of the negative emotions that block our creativity.

In my next post I will make sure to discuss chopping off the heads enemies, to reinstate balance to this blog, otherwise you might think me soft.

There are some things that offer inexorable upside with barely any downside. These investments are rare and only present themselves on rare occasions. My entire life has been marked with an everlasting race towards something I’m not sure what I was after. I once mentioned here that in one year I watched over 450 movies, read countless books, in a frantic attempt to “find truth.” The truth can be discovered in all sort of human creativity, the stories and the lessons passed on through generations, venerable facts of life.

In spite of being a learned man, I’ve also been blocked by a boiling rage inside of me and this has always been with me ever since I was a young boy. I recall using this anger to succeed, using this feeling inside of me as motivation to exact some bizarre revenge on enemies, both real and imagined. It’s a vindictive cycle that doesn’t real meld with living a happy life, replacing equanimity with consumerism and this false ideal of success.

At any rate, do me a favor for my 48th birthday, which is tomorrow, and watch this video starting at 2 mins.

I’ve just starting to meditate and feel somewhat of a fool for only now accepting that this could be a form of self control that is beneficial. I only post this in the off chance that it can help someone too. We all yearn for dynamic and eternal peace. This doesn’t mean we can’t fight for the things we deem as good and just, but perhaps it could remove some of the negative emotions that block our creativity.

In my next post I will make sure to discuss chopping off the heads enemies, to reinstate balance to this blog, otherwise you might think me soft.

Apathy has officially gripped the minds of traders. We no longer cling to Hello Kitty’s $GME tweets, nor do we press higher off the back of better than expected results at $NVDA. We, instead, COLLAPSE into the fucking graveyard, down by 600 fucking Dow points, and a lot worse in the trenches.

High beta stocks got racked for 3.3% and breadth was abhorrent 15%. If you don’t mind, I’d like to roast myself, once again, and remind readers that it was just the other day when I declared “THERE WASN’T A BEAR CASE TO BE MADE”, good Sirs. If you must know, I wrote that blog under the influence of plenty of coffee and I wore a powdered white wig while doing it, as you would expect from a man in my station.

So what next? Well I don’t have any more magic tricks in my hat, as my bullish fervor, once displayed like a fucking peacock on a highway, has been Mack Trucked with my guts now splayed out across the earth.

I tried my best to stem the flow of blood from my trading account and managed to limit my losses to just 23bps. However little it might appear, I am mentally down 90% this month and although my losses are in fact less than 1% for May, it isn’t a consolation for a person, such as myself, who is not only accustomed to the rarefied air of success but in fact a person who creates his own environ.

I will need to meditate on these items and direct my energy into more profitable venues in the not too distant future.

In about a two days I will be turning 48, an abhorrent age and I’d be lying to you if I said “time just flew by.” Only idiots say that, who cling onto yesterday because tomorrow looks bleak. I have, in fact, a very bright future ahead of me, in spite of the obvious limited numbers of years, actuarially speaking, left in my timeline. Some of us die sooner than others and although my life, at times, seems to be filled with nothing but chaos and tumult, I sincerely give an effort to improve myself and the people I influence. I do not covet others and wish my fellow man well in his endeavors. However, that will not stop me from posting videos of black people stealing shit at Target, or discussing the cuckholds in our government who appear to be working at the behest of anyone but America.

I am merely a ripple in a very large body of water with wild currents and storm systems overhead, manifesting my small piece of equanimity and success, in my remote corner of the world, reaching out to you now with the message to fuck yourselves and to clear the fuck out of my way, for my revenge is coming soon and my gains will be fantastical and all of you will regret making memes about my person (Stocklabs), for when I do achieve the elusive success I speak of, It will be ominous for you, for I will directly inflict bodily harm onto you (Minecraft) and make sure your hands are cleaved the fuck off and you’re never able to make memes again.

Have a pleasant evening.

Both the Dow and the Russell are off sharply and nearly 75% of stocks are DOWN today, which might come as a surprise to some of you rookie punks out there, especially since $NVDA posted great numbers. While great, you have to understand that what is good for $NVDA isn’t good for everyone else. Their success in AI is part of a broader increase in productivity and only a select few firms stand to profit from this AI proliferation directly. To clarify, AI will increase ALL margins for companies who deploy it; but only some make the chips and expand the server space and design the chips.

To be clear: $NVDA, $CDNS, $SNPS, $AMD, $MU, $AMZN, $MSFT, $TSM and $CLS are the best plays in AI.

Other than that, markets are merely continuing the path of least resistance, which is LOWER and this jives with the fact that I am or was very bullish to the point of expressing emotion. No worries, as I am back to behaving like a well oiled machine, +30bps for the session, hedge with some $TZA.

My general sense of things is bullish but perhaps not for today and maybe not for tomorrow. We have gains of nearly 12% on the NASADAQ this year, about midway through the year, and the economy seems to be doing fine alongside corporate profits. While it might chagrin some of you reading this to learn Pax Americana is not on the ropes, find solace in the idea that eventually it’ll all collapse.

But it’s not happening now. When it does, I will be the first to cry wolf.

Because he’s just like you and me, Bill took an Uber the other day and wanted to share his thoughts.

According to the cabbie who ferried Bill back to his penthouse apartment on the upper east side NYC, Uber steals his tips. In a fury, Bill took a picture of the ordeal, sent the photo to the CEO of Uber, who is busy running a global empire, and was chagrined when he was ghosted. So like any responsible fiduciary would do, he went to X and accused the company of defrauding poor cabbies. It sounds really bad and I’m sure some are very mad at what evil Uber is doing. Being one of the biggest and most influential hedge fund managers in the world, this was a serious charge to make publicly, a charge that should have been researched and confirmed as true because of the potential damage is might cause shareholders.

Instead of doing all of that, Bill wanted to express his dismay, a man of the people, taking cabs like normies and chatting up the help.

The only problem with the story, none of it was true, as indicated by the community note. Montauk Bill strikes again, depositing a check his body could not cash.

We have been waiting for the $NVDA numbers all day and they did not dissappoint.

NVIDIA prelim Q1 $6.12 vs $5.60 FactSet Consensus; revs $26.04 bln vs $24.59 bln FactSet Consensus

Like all things that become stylish and skyrocket, I once hated $NVDA too and dedicated many a blog to its eventual demise. But then a few years ago I threw in the towel and bought it in the low 100s and never sold it since. I wanted to sell it because I hate stocks that only go up. It felt too easy and things that are easy are often scams. However, it seems the new pejorative is to just buy high and hold it because it’s going higher and nothing can ever stop it and if, by chance, is does stop going up just buy more and wait for it to crest again.

Gone are the days when stocks collapsed and caused people to panic and worry about their futures.

Speaking of which, my future is looking pretty fucking grim right now. Whatever the reason or the cause, although I do suspect memes being created about me inside Stocklabs is of chief concern right now, I cannot find a salient in this tape. Every time I think I found it, BAM! my face crashes into the windshield and I break my fucking face. Today I shed 111bps in indecorous trade. I am down less than 1% for the month, crossed against the fucking market up more than 5%. This is an incredible chasm and it has been gnawing away at my soul each and ever day. I glance into the mirror to inspect my visage and feel the sudden urge to punch it. If I cannot trade well, I never want to do it.

Perhaps this is it for me. We all had a good run and great times on the internets since the early 2000s. Maybe it’s time for a younger generation of FUCKED FACES to take over and trade $GME back up to $400 and make the lot of you wealth in my stead.

I will keep you all posted on what might be my retirement from this here bullshit.

I see no reason to take today very seriously. It’s evident to me that the market is merely fucking with people, ebbing in and flowing out of hot trades, such as silver and copper. More that that, most of the FANG stocks are lower, more than 1.2% in the aggregate, ahead of earnings from $NVDA.

Interestingly, this comes off a blog I wrote last night declaring there weren’t any bear cases to be made AT ALL and that stocks had a trajectory upward, based off the success of the FOMC and looming euro carry trade. I sometimes feel like saying things out loud like that, instead of the inside voice, manifests terrible things. It’s not to suggest that I am contrarian indicator. I know that I’m not, based off my results. However, I have been known to get quite excitable and my core strength lies in my adaptability, not some hard coded mantra that causes me to obstinately invest based off principle.

That said, I had reduced losses to 60bps via some proficient trading, went to the gym, and came back to COLLAPSE, as markets swooned lower so did my 100% long book, now off by 107bps.

Two schools of thought are coarsing though my mind now and I don’t want to be too rash, jumping in and out of positions based off hourly moves.

One thing is for certain, the entire commodity complex has been upended and is getting tossed into flaming barrels of garbage. I haven’t hedged because I endeavor to remain long and I’m long because I want to believe.

I got caught leaning into basic materials today and it rotated the fuck out, leading to, once again, losses of 90bps. The rotation out of metals and oils and into solar and alt energy is sort of evil, all things considered. The solar sector is +7% for the session and copper stocks are down 5%. What a chasm.

Anything gold, silver, or copper is being manhandled right now. There are areas of the market that are blessed, such as EV chargers, gene editing, alt energy and select retail. $TGT is now one of those select retail, down by 7%; but $TJX is and it’s up 7%. This is what trading does to you, drives you mad.

On the whole markets are fine; but I just got a little overweight into the exuberance and now that exuberance isn’t there and the difference is, I could have sold a long time ago.

One of the greatest misconceptions by financially illiterate political activists is to blame the FOMC on the inflation occurrence. They like to cite the “creation of money” as the impetus that caused inflation, which is false. The Fed had been printing money since 2008 and we only first saw signs of rapid inflation after 2021.

Why is that?

Did it ever occur to you the reason why inflation happened was due to the legislative and executive branches of govt, doling out over $5T in stimmy checks in order to satiate the poors? When you give money to the poorest people in America you are also, by happenstance, giving free money to the dumbest, in turn you run out of cars and semiconductors because they’re prone to spend 125% of whatever they make.

Under the auspices of fighting inflation, an inflation they did not cause, the Federal Reserve managed to bring rates to 5.25% while pinning stocks to record highs. I want to you to take a step back and acknowledge this achievement and then I want you to take a look at the USD/JPY cross and appreciate the magnitude of the Yen carry trade into the US and then I want you to look at Eurozone GDP and come to the understanding that they will move first to lower rates, thereby creating a Euro Dollar carry trade that will propel risk substantially higher.

To juice the forex returns, foreign central banks will concentrate on short term treasuries and diversify into equities, mostly large cap, and that might last another 2 to 3 years.

Societal collapse cannot be permitted to fester. They do not want that and they will do anything to buttress drops and create programs to continue the status quo, because for them things are good and they want it to stay that way.

Before I went to sleep last night I envisioned my portfolio up in the range of 2%. I had a very large $BITX position, alongside some $MSTR and $HOOD and things looked really good in the after hours. Bitcoin was surging and the fucking Chinese were sopping it up. And then pre marker trade started to deprecate everything around 8:30am. I’ve seen this happen to my dreams a thousand times trading, anti climatic fervor as a result of something very hot cooling down a bit.

I don’t want to look too deeply into this, as I am known to greatly exaggerate my plight. But I stand before you down 10bps. Although 10bps isn’t anything to be upset over; I’d be remiss if I didn’t relay to you the fact that it guts me to see it. I wanted success on a grand scale, chariots rumbling through the cobblestone streets running over my enemies with wheels made from swords, cutting their fucking heads off because I could. But now I am just like you, swimming against the current in the hopes of catching a break.

Trading is never easy, but there are occasions when layups are abundant and money is taken with ease. This is not one of those tapes, unfortunately.

I reduced my beta to 0.81 in an effort to slow things the fuck down and will soon begin, in earnest, a plan to get some of my money back.