Is Satan Claws finally here for Wall Street? I waited until 2:30ish to step in and I stepped in with vigor, 130% leveraged long and then I sold everything and then I bought for the overnight my typical blend of stocks near highs and hedged with TZA-UVXY. I closed +2.61% and now am green for December.
Believe me, it was tempting to just say fuck it and stay long and hope for the best. But, and this goes without saying, fuck this market.
On paper, we look good and should rally. If we rip in the morning, I will try my best to hold and close out my shorts. Either way, my bias is certainly long here, with 15% hedged short at 3x and 20% cash. The way I am positioned, I do not expect more than +35bps or -35bps in either direction and I am okay with that. Since Feb the market has been a mirage, a singular trick that continues to fuck with the minds of traders. I am content with extricating myself from that and sticking to a plan that works.
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At this point in the month I won’t pretend to know if December ends down. It was looking good for a bit there but dip buyers are conditioned.
Big picture though the Fed just pulled forward rate hikes by something like 12 months and are slamming breaks on bond buying. Is this something we actually “knew”?
In August did any of you know this was going to happen? Clearly not only a few of us saw this coming.
And that is Powells undoing now. After his presser, commodities are almost all green. Growth is slowing but we have plenty of space before we shrink.
The market isn’t getting talked down. Powell either acts or inflation rips higher. No one actually believes he’ll do it, so he’s getting checkmated into actually having to do it.
I can see a path for the first rate hike pulling forward into March from here.
This “dot matrix” is pretty stupid.
When it first came out several years ago I thought the Fed was talking about a printer from like 15 years ago.
Seriously, as an FOMC monetary policy forecasting tool I don’t think it has been accurate at all. It reminds me of Wack A Mole. A mole “pops up” and the Fed tries to whack it with a hammer before the mole hides.
If the FOMC is talking about raising rates a quarter of a point several times next year, they will always be behind the curve.
Paul Volcker (lFOMC Chairman late 70’s to late ’80’s) made more sense by just sitting at a clean desk smoking his cigar reading the WSJ.
Hah that’s probably true.
I always just assumed these things are low key for warning your friends what you’re about to do so they can get to safety and leave everyone else a bagholder.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1471055319161716736
greed
https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1471129677431554052
Eh maybe…MAYBE.
I find the feudalism reference interesting. When we had feudalism last we were on the gold standard. That’s a common money that can be moved across borders.
Side observation: Feudalism died and then we went to fiat.
The internet economy is strong but the physical economy is still essential to it. And at some point if ever country is being threatened by the internet they’re going to start cutting the undersea cables. Then what?
How’re NY & CA doing I wonder?
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/north_america/florida-accounted-for-one-third-of-us-job-growth-during-q3/
Commodities soar.
The NASDAQ just won’t behave. Is it a leading indicator here?
In 2000 the NASDAQ (-77%) quit almost 6 months before the S&P (-43%) decided to start it’s collapse.
What a “rally” you got. Whew.
Your Gartmanesque predictions used to be funny when there were more a few people here to banter. Now it just looks sad. Like, SAD!