I fought a hard war and consider myself to be just as brave and valiant as the US army in Afghanistan. I had went 95% cash just before the initial collapse, where markets dropped off a cliff and into a crevasse following the Fed minutes. Then I got back in, slightly, and found myself in the inextricable position of having to STOP OUT one by one into a collapse.
I set stops at -1.5% and ended up 95bps, down from +1.9%, with 68% cash.
My sense for tomorrow is chicanery. The market is complete shit and it might open up in the morning, at which point you’d be wise to sell. Should be gap down, you’d be wise to buy. Do not expect a grand happening, for that is reserved for either September or October. Expect to be frustrated. Expected loosely lower prices — because nothing is good anymore and growth is going to be zero soon. The economy is going to be bifurcated, VAXXED v NON-VAXXED and that is going to have a profound effect on margins and consumer spending.
Ultimately, online vendors win and win big. For now, we punch thru the sludge and try to extract whatever we can.
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Inevitable. But not a good week. Chinese saying, ‘Watch out Taiwan, look at Afghanistan your ally is made of paper’ and ‘The transition of power in Afghanistan was smoother than that of the US in January.’
The Chinese are being as douchy as us.
If the gloves come off, the Chinese have a population which has lower expectations and is more compliant, while our people expect and demand free stuff – much of which is made in China. And the entitled will hatchet you at the bank if not fully satisfied.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1427929346262642688