I had two virus stocks on Friday, both sold today — BIMI for +33% and CODX for -4.1%. My Quantitative portfolio posted a return of +5.6% vs the SPY -0.16%. And my trading account — well, you be the judge. Here are all of my booked trades for 2020 so far. Presently I am 65% cash.
(TVIX -11.9%)
(AXGN -3.8%)
(PPC -4.4%)
(SQ -5.5%)
HMI +6.5%
DRIP +3.5%
DRIP +13.9%
(AUPH -7.3%)
GSX +5.4%
MDB +7.2%
ETSY +2.5%
(PDD -5.8%)
NVS +0.9%
HUYA +4.3%
SPT +2.3%
HUBS +9%
IIPR +1%
ZEN +4.2%
SAGE +4.5%
(NEWR -0.58%)
(JNUG -8%)
(SOXS -3.5%) x 2
TLRY +28.6%
MNK +34%
AAOI +16.8%
KRTX +8.9%
(LABD -8%)
(SOHU -9.5%)
FTSV +9.2%
MTCH +2.5%
NOAH +3.4%
SAIL +2.2%
NET – wash
BILL +5.7%
(JMIA -4.7%)
NFLX +0.9%
RPAY – wash
SPCE +9%
OSMT +18.8%
PRVB +9.7%
LK +0.6%
(BTAI -0.5%)
(PYX -6.8%)
FOSL – wash
ALT – wash
(APT -14.5%)
KMDA +1.5%
WATT +7.7%
(OSTK -6.66%)
(PRNB -7.9%)
(VRNA -4.8%)
(CALA -6.7%)
SILK – wash
(AXSM -2.9%)
(CARA -2.4%)
SE +12.8%
(KOD -6%)
(CLVS -11.8%)
AGIO – wash
NNVC +32%
NNVC +319%
CODX +28%
CODX +61.4%
VIR +25.9%
INO +50%
AHPI +48%
NVAX +11%
NVAX +28.9%
APT +29.3%
LAKE +17.5%
LAKE +25.2%
ZLAB – wash
(BCRX -3.8%)
(CDTX -2.3%)
AEMD +14%
LLIT +15.5%
(LK -8.9%)
(TWTR -2%)
(INMD -2%)
TVIX +3.6%
BIMI +33%
(CODX -4.1%)
SILK +3.2%
See pal, that’s who I am — master fisherman out there in the woods finding fish to kill. You might try to kill fish in the woods too and have a nice time finding fish in said woods, but you’ll never find them. You don’t know where they hide. I go into the market each and everyday and crushed helmets with my pike and when I’m bored of that, I develop quantitative systems that urinate on your financial advisor. After I’m bored with that, I create a ‘Best Ideas’ portfolio (coming soon) designed to relegate your FinTwit followers to the trash heap of history. While some of my comments might sounds brazen, even obnoxious to some, I challenge you to do better.
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Nice trades.
I see that you have avoided TSLA (either direction). Up another 10% today, on yet another analyst upgrading the stock for the second time in less than a month.
In awe. Sold at $720 this morning and I’m fighting the urge to re-buy.
Props to you. I’m just watching.
ARK’s optimistic scenario ($7000/share by 2024) is pricing in worldwide autonomous taxis. Here is their model:
2023
3M cars sold/year
$150B in vehicle sales revenue
taxi fleet (assumes technical and regulatory hurdles surpassed and 100% autonomous driving is achieved):
$116k in shared revenue per tax ($1 *116k miles)
1.14M taxis * $11.6k TSLA revenue/taxi in China
3.88M taxis * $35k in TSLA revenue/taxi rest of world
$150B in TSLA gross revenue from autonomous taxi service
I laughed at her last year and missed a lot of gains. Now I don’t know…
The calculations are sound, but the assumptions are the key (garbage in, garbage out).
Also, it is worth thinking how this woudl play out *even if the assumptionn are correct*.
1) At $116k annual revenue/taxi, this woudl be a VERY profitable business. The key is that with $0 driver cost, one of your second largest expenses is gone. Also, with free or heavily subsidized charging stations (there’s that socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor again), another major
expense is greatly reduced.
2) There woudl be soem small buisness that woudl just buy Teslas and create their own taxi service. Tesal may even decide to run their own fleet (higher amrgins + higher production numbers) instead of using customer cars.
3) The margins and costs of autonomus taxi service woudl drop below $1.
4) The margin and costs of Tesla vehciles woudl drop, due to the huge supply of used taxis and the reduced staus of owning waht is essentailly a common taxi cab.
What are the estimates for 2027?
Personally, I’ve always thought that if they can deliver on their promises of a fully autonomous, long-haul, 80,000lb GCWR semi, then that would be the game cahnger.
Now up 17%.
For those of you that are wondering, this is a 45.62% return on a full portfolio, considering a 5% allocation per position.
so basically he should have bought TSLA when he said it was the easiest trade ever at like $350 lolol
That’s about right.
Uncle Sam licks his lips
You know what isn’t up today? AAPL.and AMZN.
I rotated my crops out of CHAD, and replanted
You TSLA fans might consider throwing some gambling money at budding competitor NIO. Chinese are smart and many …and their government will throw anyone who bets against the company into a reeducation camp.
They’re not investors; it’s more of a cult. A rational long-term investor woudl be more liekly to sell when the price goes up. However, that’s now how stocks with low (or negative) earnings and high multiples work. The actual earnigns are so hard to predict, anything goes. Therfore, the recent stock price movement just furthers their belief in the company, so they don’t sell.
I would be really interested to know wht the actual float is, that is the net number of shares that were actually sold in the last 30 days. 20% is held by Musk and isn’t really on the market. How many others like him?
If that number is samll, then it woudl easier to squeez shorts, as the actual number of sahres availbe to buy (to cover) woudl be small. In fact, a large holder (ie, Wall St entity) could lend their shreas out to shorts, then demand them back, forcing the short to buy at high prices. Still it’s quite remarkable.
If the markets sahke of the coronovirus, it wouldn’t surprise me if the sahres hit $1000 this year – just because that is a pretty number. It was noteworthy (as i noted…) that TSLA shares were up on Friday when the market dropped. We’ll see waht happens when (if) the S&P drops to 3150
A corollary to this is that the larger the FED-juiced amrket gaisn have been in the past, the higher the expectaions of futuer gains are. The vast majority of investors and investment advisors don’t really believe that past returns don’t predict future results.