An Era of Extreme Decadence is Upon You

Heading into today I had 90% cash and a little hedge via LABD. I closed it out today for a 3.5% loss and started buying stocks again. Does it make sense to buy when the market is +350, after being up 30% for the year?

Absolutely.

There is a ravenous appetite for equities now and forever. Each and every time it looks as if stocks might breathe and head lower — we climb effervescently towards new lurid highs and crush the bears into dust and urinate on their graves. There is no future in being a pessimist. If you’re a negative thinking fellow, cut it out or kill yourself. There is not enough room on this crowded planet for the likes of you.

Early next week I will get around to allocating the balance of my money into stocks. Quite frankly, there isn’t a rush because any time is a good time to buy stocks. You can buy them now or Monday, or maybe even Wednesday. If busy, you can even buy them on Thursday. Just try to avoid buying too much on Fridays.

My advice to you pal is to drink the Kool-Aid. You see it there all cold and red and glistening with sugar. I bet if you picked it up and took a sip you’d like it. No point in fighting realities any longer. Trump is your Emperor. Russia is our greatest ally. And the stock market is going higher forever and ever and ever.

If you say “TOP” after reading this post, God will strike you down and kill you.

I read an article a few months ago about a Goldman BallSachs analyst warning investors that share buybacks would slow to “only” $700 billion for 2019 and how it might hurt stocks. I suppose this fellow thinks buybacks in the order of $1 trillion per annum is normal. Needless to say, he was wrong, naturally. Markets have soared, funneled through the prism of financial engineering — which is boosting profits for the sake of profit. Nothing else or more.

Take for example the case of Target, one of the few survivors in the wars against Amazon. The stock is up 90% in 2019. What is driving the stock?

Look at the shares outstanding, sinking every single quarter due to buybacks.

Revenues have inched up, good, but not worth +90% for 2019.

Dividends, thru the roof, courtesy of higher profits — thanks to SHARE BUYBACKS.

Earnings edged up.

So how did we get here? Cheap AF money. Apple has over $100 billion in debt, for no reason at all. The company can bootstrap any engineering they desire, at $13-15b per quarter in profit, but choose to borrow money because it’s cheap and because they want to buyback their shares, which reduces share count and increases EPS. It’s complete horseshit, but it won’t end until either the economy crashes or rates go up.

In Exodus 2.0 aka Stocklabs, all of these tools will be available to subscribers.

These are really annoying numbers. Unemployment is now 3.5% and the economy added 266k jobs during November, way ahead of the 187k expected.

How am I supposed to see an apocalyptic decline with the economy booming like this? Perhaps when they impeach and execute Trump, we might see the VIX rise a little. But aside from that, the China trade war is having ZERO affect on us, which makes me think about liars and how they sell stories to fit narratives.

The Chinese economy isn’t growing nearly as fast as they say and our dependence on them isn’t nearly as much as they say. The problem with liars is they always get caught. The issue for everyone else is it diminishes the structure upon which society has been molded around. With that goes confidence and adherence to the law. Dangerous stuff to play with.

Futures are up. The economy is ripping. Happy Friday.

The easy kills have been made in biotech. Let SAGE be a stark reminder to all of you. Tomorrow isn’t promised, even though you’re presently living in the halcyon days for investors — a period in time when financial engineering ruled over markets. People slaughtered and cast out into the cold to make way for efficinecies — auto-this and auto-that — paving the way for greater earnings which are then used to reduce the amount of shares outstanding to produce nothing at all but more profits. And the cycle continues. Meanwhile, all of the good paying jobs are in coastal cities, denizens of ill repute — beleaguered by expensive real estate and food — which is the result of a top 1% of income earners doing very well. Very well indeed.

At the core of all this inequity is the Fed, shoveling their cheap money into the coal powered fires. It’s easy to sit here and critique when the alternative is desperation and the end of everything we hold sanctimonoous. But just know this, as you sit there bridled by your gains and luxurious settings, nothing is evergreen but death and change. What is good now will sour tomorrow. The march is civilization is noisy in the present but silent from afar. I suspect it’s natural for me to believe it’s going to end soon, the bull market, due to my internal desire for my own life to mean something. But there truth laid bare is easier to understand, harder to digest. No one cares about your existence more than you — so be mindful of that and be mindful of the fact that bull markets can last a very long time — much longer than you think.

For now, I wait, 90% cash.

This will tell you everything you need to know about Exodus 2.0 Aka Stocklabs.

I am 85% cash in my trading account.

Good morning lads.

I took in the following bounty this morning, during my opening tick fishing.

BBIO +11.1%
ANAB +3.54%
EIDX – wash
SCPL +1.6%
SGMO +3.3%
EXAS +1%

No big deal, just a little fish in the morning to sup on. I am now presently in 70% cash; but I did buy one stock this morning. Naturally the bulk of my money or 75% of it is invested in a Quant — which is 100% long, so bear in mind when I tell you that my trading account is flexible and quick or hedge or short for a reason — mostly to mitigate for the exposure in the Quant.

Early going I like nothing on the momentum side.

UPDATE: I sold SAGE for a morning day trade, +15%

I was forced to average down in a stock today, due to the severity of the decline. Usually I don’t throw good money after bad. But the nature of biotech is wild and we’re still in a strong uptrend, so dips should be bought. Selling biotech on dips is an admittance of failure.

“The Fly” does not fail.

Looking around the market, I am beguiled, and also bewildered — because I can’t find anything good to buy. There are stocks to buy, but none of them are “good” in the traditional sense. Hear me when I tell you — when I am unable to find stocks to buy, it usually means end of times is just around the bend.

There are a handful of retail stocks, lots of oils, and a plethora of degenerate biotechs. That’s it. Nothing else!

For now, I remain stoically in a 50% cash position.

Let’s be clear, oil is for losers. The idea of being long crude is contrarian. To be a contrarian, you have to think differently. You think differently because you are inherently unhappy and ergo feel the need to do something that no one else is doing. The delusion is thinking you’re a leader or ‘early’ when in fact you’re not — you’re just a rebel. Being a rebel without power makes you a loser. George Washington was a rebel, but he had power. Had his power failed him, he’s be considered a loser today — moron who fell against the British Crown. You are not George Washington.

Healthcare stocks, of which I am long, are lower today. I am still heavily in cash, heavily in biotech — not participating in today’s rally. In order to prevent being a loser tomorrow, I might have to conform to the current strokes of the market. I can let my stocks go another day to see if biotech bounces tomorrow, but nothing more than a single day.

Exodus had oil stocks are extreme oversold levels as of late last week.

Today’s bounce is nothing more than mean reversion.

Markets have all but collapsed and I’ve been out this day on leisure. But now I’m back in the lab and applying cash to work. I am heavily long biotech — since aside from gold and REITs, it’s the only sector of the market working. But more than that, it is surging. These fucking stocks, for the love of God, look like firecrackers.

I’d tell you what I bought — but that privilege is for members of Exodus only. So sorry.

55% cash, in the fucking lab cooking up profits. Trust me, I am a Dr.

Markets are down 400. Clowns are getting their noses punched off clean. The Fly is 80% cash, 100% win. My stocks are up lads. I fear nothing.

Is this a good time to buy stocks?

No.

The 10yr is down an astounding 13bps to 1.70%. The Xmas rout is upon you. Santa has been detained and Krampus is coming for you and your children. Brace yourselves.