Easily my favorite holiday of the year, Halloween is a time for one to prep for the colder climes ahead and relish the fading days of good weather. This of course most aptly applies to northern cities or denizens of repute where the seasons change. In totally degenerate locales in the US, the Deep South, Florida, and California — people there do not see seasons other than hot and hotter. This resolute constant in temperature makes people slothful and filled with boredom, leading to wanton vagrancy, which is why those states are leading us towards end of days.
I could not find anything worth buying today, so I didn’t. I took out a hedge, raised cash to 30%, and decided to take it easy. The most difficult part of my life now is dealing with the fucking dogs, barking all day and night, acting like insane idiots outside. Hungry and angry — they are incorrigible forms of life. My wife loves dogs and would probably have more, if not for me. I don’t see the upside to owning a dog, after raising humans for over two decades. Now I can’t even leave the house for more than a day, without finding responsible lodging for them and/or sleeping at a fucking dog hotel. If forced to choose a side, dogs rock vs dogs suck, I’d have to choose suck. But they only suck because they’re in my house, pissing and shitting on things, which makes me a bad owner. My life is crazy enough, being a professional blogger of stocks, than having to sit down with the dogs and teach them how to roll over by way of weaponized bacon.
More or less, owning a dog is a 10-15 year sentence of toil. In my opinion NOT WORTH IT.
That should piss off about 75% of you fuckers.
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People like dogs because they can’t talk. Think about it.
If I was single and lonely, I might like dogs.
I hate dogs. If you want a pet there are much nicer animals. Like rabbits. Not that I have any pet. Raising children as you say is plenty of work….
All Hallows Eve is my anniversary. 29 years. It’s always a bit scary. And fun. The best part … I’ve never forgotten it. The Fed should raise rates, cut purchases, and stop feeding the overnight lending. THAT, would be fun.
Which should remind people how lopsided the risk-reward potential is.
1) Raise rates -> Sticker shock, markets crash
2) Drop by 0.25. -> Priced in. Yawn. Possible sell the news, just liek the previosu time
3) Drop rates by 0.50. -> Surprise! More QE, good for short term. However, what does this say about the underlying economy?
So Bulls, which scenario do you actually want? Be careful waht you wish for, because you just might get it.
Mnuchin on China’s agricultural purcahse:
“This is built on a bottom-up basis of both what we think we can deliver and what they think they need…It’s a one-year target, but obviously is going to take some time to scale up.”
Note two things:
1) Walking down expectations
2) language: “what they need”, not “what they are willing to buy”
Mnuchin’s comments confirm that China isn’t giving an inch to the “deal maker,” but only buying food becuase they can’t produce enough on their own. This is equivalent to Japan agreeing to buy oil, or Middle East countries agreeing to buy water, or Trump agreeing to get more lawyers.
On a completely separate subject: AI is going to lead us to the next Black Friday.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-now-giving-its-coders-licenses-deal-equities
Their are severl problems:
1) Good coders do not often understand the subject they are dealing with. They are simply matchign patterns, with no idea on why pattersn match. Good staticians know that a
sample of 10 does not a pattern make, but AIs don’t. Also, with the huge amoutn of data, there will be many pattersn with apaprent small “trading edges’ that are really aren’t there in reality.
“Wow, I just found that 5% up days are much more liekyl to occur on dates ending in 1!”
2) Flash crashes. AIs will magnify short term tresnd into the void, because trades happen too fast to examine if the trend is supported by real world evetns or not.
3) Over reliance on theoretical simulations and back testing. Black swans create chaos. Boeing’s MCAS system is a good example, as it seemd to never occur to anyone that a sensor could malfunction. Garbage in, garbage out.
I’m not predicting a crash anytime soon, just saying that AIs and algortihmic trading are making markets less stable.
My life as I knew it pretty much ended when I gave that woman my phone number…
Lots of negativity and pessimism in the above. Thumbs up!
You have weird dogs/coyote. How many gimlets are you drinking with a verlander W?