Look at this chart and tell me with a straight face it isn’t rigged to placate Trump’s id.
During Obama’s term, the GDP zig-zagged sloppily all over the place, mostly planting itself on its face under 2%. It was common parlance to accept the new reality that the economy had gotten mature to the point that 3%+ growth was a relic — something of the past that could not be replicated again. As traders, we dealt with the pangs of this miserly existence and often got caught by surprise with sharp downside surprises and rapes that cannot be explained by simply looking at a chart of the SPY.
Enter Trump and his id — fixated on stocks — always talking about the market and the GDP and how great big and beautiful America was, in comparison to the absolute shitholes of Asia, Canada, Mexico and all of Europe. Africa isn’t a real continent, so for the purposes of this article, I pretend it does not exist.
Look at that GDP chart. LOOK AT IT.
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Trump’s base doesn’t know what GDP actually is, so what does matter.
Trump’s based is filled with rednecks with red hats and red sun burnt skin.
So stupid — we should kill them all.
That’s the narrative. But he still has very strong Republican support, whcih includes a lot of “Greed is good”-type 20 percenters.
TLDR: the GDP numbers are real, but it isn’t good news.
In tersm of GDP, here’s the thing: “rigging” GDP can mean two things:
1) made-up BS numbers (China style)
2) artificially supported, non-capitalistic asset-boosting (FED style)
Trump’s team is too stupid to be able to manipulate all the data that goes into the GDP numbers, and most of the peoepl that work at the Bureau of Economic Analysis are non-political numbers crucnchers. In fact, I would say that they are more likely anti-Trump becuase of his proclivity for making up “facts,” somethign very much against the grain of stataticians.
Also, I am no Trump fan, but as I’.ve mentioend, the trifecta Republican 2016 sweep almost defintely gave the economy a boost. The investor calss and business owners correctly predicted that every department would go pro-business. The much anticiapted Tax cut of 2018 was probably even more generaous to the 1% than they had predicted given Trump’s rhetoric. Then you have the Powell FED who decided that they’d rather have asset infaltion then be blamed for triggering (not causing) the next recession.
So I think the GDP numbers are real.
However… there’s no free ride. The cnsequences of Trump’s policies will be felt in the long term: tax cuts that futher weaken the consumption class are just increasing the wealth gap, which will lead to slower consumption and growth in the future. I’ve never said that tax cuts for consumers is *alwasy* better that those for investors/businesses. However, an unbiased look at interest rates, corporate profits, and corporate cash-on-hand woudl tell any econmist that business/capex investemtn/expansion is not constrained by lack of funds, defeating the whole idea of trickle-down/supply-side economics.
Then there is the record-breakign deficits, unprecedented in a time when the economy and emplyment are strong. Eventually, this will lead to higher interest rates. You think our defense budget is high? Well, do you know what our debt is costing us in interest:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-11/cbo-warns-lawmakers-interest-spending-to-outpace-military-by-23
Weakening regualtions will lead to more pollution, more health problems, more small businesses falling to larger ones, more economic disparity.
I agree about government workers in DC area. At the staff level most of them are focusing on doing the job as a career, regardless of which party is in power. No doubt they have a personal political opinion, but most have learned that staying neutral and professional is the way to reach retirement.
Many agencies have politically appointed leadership, so it’s like the menu changes, but staff still tries to do their job of running a professional kitchen.
A difficulty is if a political leader makes a political litmus test judgement on staff members, and some who have worked professionally for decades get blown out at the whim of a leader who will be gone in 2 to 6 years.
Which “Weakening regualtions will lead to more pollution, more health problems, more small businesses falling to larger ones, more economic disparity.” are you even talking about and what does this have to do with any of the spewage that was typed before it?
And they still want lower rates.
Pootin has hacked into our GDP computers, manipulating the #’s so Trump can afford to put more sanctions on Russia
NEED MORE STIMULUS. IM JONESING REAL BAD FOR MORE TAX CUTS YO.
Day traders blame existential forces whenever they lose money on a trade.
1. The Bots front run retail traders
2. Investment banks short/long stocks that have been bought long/short
3. The market / Fed is rigged
4. Insider trading / someone knew something beforehand
Feel free to add more of your failure excuses below.
+34.45% YTD
Too cocky. Sarge marks market highs?
Day traders also credit their self-asserted skill when they make money on a trade.
In reality, most people tend to blame external forces or bad luck for their own bad decisions, and take credit when other factors were actaully more influential. IE, the Russians would not have been able to nudge the election towards Trump if Clinton was not a flawed candidate and Trump would not be a Billionaire if his father wasn’t a 1%er.
1) HFTs don’t make their money front-running retail; they make it front running institutuional traders. This doesn’t really affect day traders, but does reduce long tem earnigns of mutual funds, pension funds, etc.
3a) Why do you think interest rates so low when the economy is so strong?
3b) The SEC once made it illegal to short stocks. Can you imagine a situation where they woudl say you can’t *buy* a certain stock?
ferd, I think the general view of the public will probably view ATHs as an “all-clear” sign and the fall crash as a panic for no reason. In reality, the fact that a samll cahnge in interst rate policy can effect the stock amrket so much shows how shaky the situation is.
Just took a look at GDP. It’s a lot uglier than the topline number indicates
Takeaways, Bright spots
“other” nondurable goods: 0.45%
intelectual property R&D: 0.39%
exports: 0.45%
State and local spending: 0.41%
Takeaways, negative
Durable goods: -0.38% long term indicator – very important
Nondurable goods, except “other”: -0.21%
Healthcare: 0.43% not good for consumers to spend this much here
imports: 0.58% (consumers buying less)
cahnge in inventoreis: 0.65% (hopefully lead to fuutre sales?)
“Table 2. Contributions to Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic Product”
11 Goods:-0.14
123 Durable goods: -0.38%
124 Nondurable goods: +0.24%
1241 clothing and food negative
1242 “other” +0.45%
11 Services: +1.06%
112 healthcare: +0.43%
113 Financail services: 0.25%
114 recreation, food: negative
2 Gross private domestic investment: 0.92
211 nonresidential structures: -0.02
212 nonresidential equipment: 0.01
213 nonresidential Intellectual property products: 0.39
22 residential: -0.11
23 change in inventories:: 0.65
31 exports: 0.45
32 imports: 0,58
4 Govt consumption: 0.41
41 Federal: 0.00
42 State and local: 0.41