BEHOLD the Wonders of Allergy Season

I always quiz the landscapers if they’re allergic to the planet like I am and they never are. I suppose they wouldn’t be cutting grass and getting bit by ticks all day if they were. As a young boy, I’d always find myself getting sick around my birthday — May 25th. I recall countless times being in a haze while playing baseball around this time of year, always chalking it up to catching the flu or a cold.

The first year of being a stockbroker, I remember vividly opening 2 new accounts on my birthday and I was sick as a fucking dog. I went home early that day and celebrated over tequila and antibiotics.

Truth of that matter is, I was a fucking moron all of those years, succumbing to stupidity on a grandiose level. I was never sick, per se, but allergic to the planet, or pollen. I actually had to redpill a friend of mine about his seasonal sickness a few years ago and much to his surprise he felt better, almost immediately, following a dose of anti-histamines.

Last year was the only year in well over 15 that I did not suffer from debilitating allergies. Often times I am awoken by them and sneeze for an hour straight, scrambling like a fool on a stool for a Claritin pill to help me live like a normal human being. The reason why I escaped allergies last year is because I skipped gardening. Typically I buy $1,000 worth of plants per annum. I take said plants and toss them into holes I dig in my garden beds. I’d then water them and feel good about them for a few weeks, and then watch them die over the next 8 weeks because I get mad at the water bill, which makes me turn off the irrigation system and then I often forget to water them in time to save them.

I’m a busy guy and don’t have time to water fucking plants.

The secret to feeling better this time of year is to be a hermit, take an anti-histamine pill every single day, regardless of symptoms — and never, ever, fucking garden. I recall a story that was once told to me about Mr. T, during his prime, and how he moved into a very posh Chicago suburb. Like me, Mr. T, aka Clubber Lang, suffers from allergies and he wasn’t having none of that shit in his new suburban mansion. Word is, much to his neighbors dismay, he chopped down all of the trees on his property and had his entire backyard turned into a concrete jungle, in order to avoid sneezing during pollen season.

You can do that, or simply hole yourself up tight for the next month or so and only veer out into the public during rainy days and/or the night — just like a vampire.

NOTE: In honor of Le Fly’s upcoming 42nd bday, we’re doing free trials for Exodus this week. Email me at Flybroker at gmail dot com for access.

NOTE: In honor of Le Fly’s upcoming 42nd bday, we’re doing free trials for Exodus this week. Email me at Flybroker at gmail dot com for access.

About 6 years ago, Bill Ackman and Ron Johnson, former guru from Apple, ventured on the quest to turn JC Penney into a chic retailer, one without coupons filled with elderly people in search of deals. That plan ended in disaster, placing the once legendary retailer in the grips of a debilitating financial crisis.

Look at the revenue and earnings collapse during the Ackman-Johnson era at JCP.

This morning the stock is spiraling lower again, heading towards the $1s, on news that its CEO is leaving for Lowes.

The home improvement retailer announced Tuesday it is naming Ellison president and CEO, effective July 2. Ellison will take over for Robert A. Niblock, who previously announced his intention to retire.

Ellison is chairman and CEO of J. C. Penney, which he has attempted to steer through a turnaround.

Prior to J.C. Penney, Ellison worked at Lowe’s rival Home Depot.

Shares of J.C. Penney were down 6 percent, while shares of Lowe’s were up 2 percent in pre-market trading.

The highly leveraged retailer has struggled to find its place in the evolving retail landscape, hamstrung with by its ability to properly buy clothes shopper want and unprofitable stores.

The retailer has taken a number of efforts to help steward a turnaround, including in March the elimination of 230 positions and the departure of executive vice president of Penney’s omnichannel business, Mike Amend,

Question: When SHLD and JCP go away, what will happen to all of that empty space at the mall?

NOTE: In honor of Le Fly’s upcoming 42nd bday, we’re doing free trials for Exodus this week. Email me at Flybroker at gmail dot com for access.

It’s hard to not categorize this as a win for team Trump. Naturally, some might say the tone of these threats isn’t friendly and it might damage relations long term — but who really gives a shit about feelings anyway. The Chinese eat pets, dogs and cats — believe me — they don’t give a shit about a little hardball negotiation. If I had to guess, they were probably bored of beating us stupid and silly and have enjoyed this new version of American virility.

On news of these tariff cuts, futures are +55, Nasdaq +25.

China’s Finance Ministry said that it will cut import tariffs on some vehicles to 15 percent, down from as much as 25 percent.

The announcement Tuesday also said that tariffs on some automotive parts would fall to 6 percent. The cuts will be effective from July 1.

The move signifies an attempt to open up the world’s largest auto market to international players. Discussion of a potential automotive sector tariff cut surfaced in April, and was mentioned in a speech by Chinese President Xi Jinping that month. It was also revealed that China would permit full foreign ownership of car makers in five years.

According to the Finance Ministry on Tuesday, the average tax on qualifying vehicles will now be 13.8 percent. Car parts to have import duties lowered include bumpers, doors and seat belts.

And, it looks like Trump backed down from penalizing ZTE. This is bullish for ACIA.

Everything is the fuck higher, gold, oil, silver — everything but Bitcoins.

I posted a chart of CRM’s revenue ramp yesterday and all of the faggots got defensive over it, implying I was calling them a scam. I know it’s not a scam — but a growth hack.

All of the gains in productivity utilizing tech can be found inside this one sector: SAAS (software as a service).

In a way, NFLX falls into this group too, as well as Amazon Prime. The favorite business model on Wall Street is a subscription based one. Over the past 10 years, this model has exploded everywhere, as techFAGS use their wits to figure out human behavior, what colors to use in banner ads, words that make people buy shit, etc.

The theory behind SAAS is simple. Find a repeatable business model by subscription, with a low churn rate, that can grow thru a sales force or ad campaigns. The more money you throw at it, the faster they grow. Even during the criss of 2008, these companies grew.

Also, they never show profits — because all of their money is reinvested into growth. It seems like the biggest fucking scam ever — but it’s simply a matter of growing subscriptions, up selling, cross selling, and making sure customers are happy.

Some of the big winners the past year are in this space: ADBE, CRM, NOW, NEWR, ZEN. I will tell you now, the main high growth player in this sector now is ZEN. I’d be shocked if they didn’t catch a bid inside a year or so.

When does the party end, if ever?

Valuation isn’t even stretched, based off recent historical compares.

Just so you know, I’ll be 42 on the 25th of May — giving me just 5.5 years left on this site. When I started blogging in my 20s, I always said the age limit was 47.5; anything older than that deserves to be euthanized. If you’re not secluded in some mountainous village away from the world by the age of 50, you’re living life wrong. No one wants to see old people anymore — that shit is played out. I get it from my kids all the time. I’m an ancient man, a relic from another era and their way is better. Playing video games all day on a 5 inch screen is far superior to hitting fast balls over a park fence and into a bay across the street, tipping one’s hat as he trots across the bases and his enemies on the opposing team lament in their humiliating misery. I am sure placing a ring onto the nose of a shark in some shit-fun game is better.

Having said that, I still have a few years left here until I retire to the green fields of Romania.

Starting now thru this weekend — I’m handing out fresh Exodus free trials. Come check out the upgrades we’ve made to the software, the piped in data, Sharpe ratio tools, and of course my Quant strategies.

Because I now operate with a skeleton crew, you’re gonna have to email me and say hello in order to gain access. Don’t worry, I won’t bite.

[email protected].

Good day gents, ladies.

I actually own this stock from the $30s and have marveled at the market finally adjusting to its valuation and gunning it higher. They’re also opening a Shake Shack in Princeton soon, which is bound to be jam packed every single hour of operation.

The idea of buying SHAK now, after such an extended move, is pretty simple.

You cannot stop the carnivorous American — but can only hope to contain him.

Food is a right, not a luxury.

Shake Shack is the best in class — McDonald’s and Wendy’s eat large dicks.

The restaurant sector has been on fire this year, as American wheel one another in barrows and cash their welfare checks in order to stuff extreme delicacies into their jowls.

While some might point to a new rich, one that is health nutty and who eschews meat for its evil properties, those same people forget that those new rich and aspirational folk are soon to be extinct mammals. Americans are being created every day, some by procreation, others by border crossings. Once assimilated in this vast land of milk and honey, they want to consume.

In 50 years hence, all yoga instructors will be dead, vegans annihilated, and all that will be left is burger eating goblins.

Long SHAK.

Well, well, well what do we have here? After about a decade of sleeping on the job, an economist at Goldman has awoken from his slumber to report that the US is flat broke, getting broker, and there’s nothing that can be done about it.

According to forecasts from bank’s chief economist, the federal deficit will increase from $825 billion (or 4.1 percent of gross domestic product) to $1,250 (5.5 percent of GDP) by 2021. And by 2028, the bank expects the number to balloon to $2.05 trillion (7 percent of GDP).

“An expanding deficit and debt level is likely to put upward pressure on interest rates, expanding the deficit further,” Jan Hatzius – Goldman’s top economist – wrote Sunday. “While we do not believe that the U.S. faces a risk to its ability to borrow or repay, the rising debt level could nevertheless have three consequences long before debt sustainability becomes a major obstacle.”

Economic growth should jump above 3 percent in 2018 thanks to the stimuli, the CBO said, but the acceleration will likely prove brief and debt held by the public soaring to $28.7 trillion by the end of fiscal 2028.

That could create a precarious situation for Congress if the economy faces an economic downturn in the near term, Hatzius wrote, hampering legislators’ ability provide additional fiscal stimulus in times of economic downturn.

“Lawmakers might hesitate to approve fiscal stimulus in the next downturn in light of the already substantial budget deficit,” the economist said. “While we would expect some additional loosening of fiscal policy during the next downturn, there is a good chance in our view that it would be less aggressive than it was in the last few recessions.”

“The current fiscal expansion … must at some point give way not just to a neutral stance, which we expect by 2020, but to a tightening of fiscal policy that could restrict growth,” Hatzius wrote.

The great lie that Goldman and other banks like it are pushing now is that high deficits is forcing rates higher. In a natural world, this might be true. But in our world where the dollar is currency reserve and the banks make up the rules as they go along, this is entirely artificial. There isn’t any tangible inflation, as evidenced by the CPI. So why in the fuck is the Fed raising rates? The only outcome this is guaranteeing, given the fiscal deficit and Congressional inability to manage a budget, is a collapse.

If we cannot extricate ourselves from a fiscal deficit during the good times, what in the fuck will happen during contraction?

Short term, enjoy the rallies and the perversion of GAAP accounting, because long term our fate is secured and we’re all fucked.

I’m so glad no one can ban me from my own site, at least not yet.

Let me paint a picture for you.

You’re cutting your grass with one of those faggot non-machine grass cutters when an old man with a shot gun presses upon you with this question, gun to face.

‘Son, you don’t know who the hell am I — but you’re gonna give me your damned best stock idea right now or help me god I will put a hole in your face the size of Nebraska. Now go on and put that damned grass cutter down and give me your best idea — and make it a good one.’

This is mine.

Try and beat me.

Pro tip: you can’t.

I mean this in this post disrespectful way imaginable: no one gives a shit about Italian bond yields, till meatballs bounce. Also, the Turks have never been more fucked than they are now — and that’s a fact.

Turkey’s Lira blowing out to record lows.

Back to Italy. Everyone is making such a big deal over the fact that Italy has the most debt in Europe, and is entirely fucked long term, and now rates are skyrocketing higher. Not only that, the German-Italian spread is bloooooowing the fuck out. Not only that, the contagion is spreading to the other PIGS, mainly Portugal, Spain and Ireland. French yields are edging higher too — ECB crisis style, amidst sharply lower yields for the good balanced sheet Eurocucks.

So if you look closely at the set of metrics above — it bodes poorly for the overall health of the ECB. In theory, the ECB is supposed to be this giant block of nations, all for one and one for all. But we’ve seen the balkanization of the alliance in numerous occasions, only mended together by unchecked spending and balance sheet rejiggering — subjugating the Germans to the debtFAGS represented by the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain).

The devious trick is getting you, the unwashed hamburger eater, believing this is going to lead to another black swan event — sending stocks tumbling lower. After all, Argentina is collapsing, foreign banks are getting hammered, and our consumer cyclicals and other old man stocks are getting blown out — all due to this new paradigm that demands higher rates because of some imaginary inflation risk.

On paper, I should be bearish. But my muscle memory over the past 10 years demands that I chalk this crisis up to more nothing — a mere way station on the path to even more hedonism and even more riches. It’s easy to get bearish — because logic demands that we should be worried about things like math and human emotion. However, at least for now and until proven otherwise, the prevailing emotion is greed through higher prices.

Plus, we got the fictitious China trade war figured out now.

“I think we’ve made very meaningful progress,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “Now it’s up to both of us to make sure that we can implement it. We came away with a very comprehensive framework agreement that needs to be implemented, but has lots of different aspects,” he said. Asked by CNBC’s Becky Quick whether investors should view his comments over the weekend that a trade war has been put on hold as a glass half-full or half-empty scenario, Mnuchin said, “It’s completely half-full.”

Futures are +228. Happy Monday.

Any ideas you had making money on the short side are effectively dead, starting with tomorrow’s trading session. Dow futures are +210, Nasdaq +55.

The Trump administration is declaring victory over China tonight, an end to the tumultuous trade war of 2018 that effected absolutely no-one. If there’s one common theme with this Trump regency it is a lot of hat but very little cattle. Sometimes he tries to get cattle, but then they’re quickly stolen from him.

Either way, the status quo has prevailed and globalism is alive and well, a BTFO for the midwestern fuckover states who so desperately desire to become employed by grist mills and steel factories for American blue collared arm sawed the fuck off plebeian labor.

I’d rather be dead, than see my son’s work at a fucking grist mill.

I expect my positions will fly higher tomorrow.

As you were.