The Fed Might Be Rethinking Their Stupidity

Remember when I suggested that we “crash it until the Fed surrendered?” Well, we kind of did that, no?

Now the most retarded of the Fed hawks, Fed’s Bullard, is rethinking his stupidity, which is the reason why we’re rallying–other than the oversold nature of the bounce.

What happens if the Fed backs off their “dot plot” and adopts a supporting role for equity markets? We.fucking.surge.

The odds for a March rate hike are now down to 30%, meaning the market is calling the Fed’s bluff. This is an encouraging development and should be monitored very closely.

A much deserved and anticipated rally. I was expected this. After all, why else would I be long 200% SPY now.

But this isn’t the rally to end the bear. With the market up by 100 NASDAQS, one would expect market breadth to be upwards of 85%. Instead, and despite the feverish nature of the tape, we are at just 72%. Hopefully this will continue into tomorrow and I’ll be rewarded by owning such a bold and stentorian SPY position. The algorithms inside Exodus have been flagging Oversold for a week. But yesterday was the first time it flagged oversold for our historical algorithm. That is probably a confusing thing to understand. Just know, it’s a rare event and it means the technicals of the market are as bad as they were during 2009 and 2011, when those low points were reached.

Nevertheless, today’s breadth isn’t good enough.

Enjoy the rally and the respite. But we need better breadth if this run is going to continue.

He discussed oil and the lunacy of upping earnings estimates for airlines and then selling off the stock. Also, he said if oil traded down to $29, the market would sell off another 3%. He was in true misanthropic fashion.

My favorite part was towards the end. Admittedly, I am a sucker for Federal Reserve bashing. As you know, when Cramer hones in on the Fed and starts to bash them, he has no equal.

Let the games begin.

Until they’re not anymore. We’re all so jaded, it’s ridiculous. Futures are higher and the market looks like it will jump off this morning, something that its done, repeatedly, over the past week–only to fail. While morning rallies are often subjected to swift sell offs in bad tapes, there will come a day when the market just doesn’t look back–leaving you and your little friends in the dust.

This is why I’ve been buying SPY each and every morning, over the past week. I’m done buying, 200% long SPY into a vast black sea of murky uncertainty.

For markets to rally we need oil, copper and Apple to be strong. In addition, we need some institutional buying to show up in the afternoon to offset retail margin selling, which should continue for the next few days.

I am very optimistic for a 1-2 week rally, which will feed off the negative backdrop, naysayers, and outright malcontents, who will miss the first leg of the rally and enter late. I will be selling into it and then sideline the proceeds until the next oversold signal in Exodus presents itself.

European car makers are a disgraceful lot. Over in Paris, shares of Renault are getting hammered after ‘fraud police’ raided their offices.

Apparently the fraud investigators wanted to check their equipment at their factories. Perhaps they too are cheating on their emission tests, like Volkswagon? The company actually confirmed my suspicions, saying the raids were “linked to the consequences of the Volkswagen rigged-engines affair”. One thing is for certain, I never liked Carlos Ghosn. I remember when our auto-makers were being bailed out in 2008 and that little fucker was being praised as some sort of white knight in the auto industry.

Meanwhile, Nissan and Renault make hugely piece of shit cars and now the ‘fraud police’ are going to toss him into the lions den.

Talk about pulling a relic out from the woodworks. Bloomberg found her in the darkest corner of the world, where she painted a bullish outlook for stocks, suggesting investors are acting emotional and without brains.

She thinks crude trades $30-40’s, referring to her colleagues work. And, she posits the S&P 500 will trade up to 2,100–based on her mathematical models, which luckily for all interested parties, are not saddled with the sad luggage of human emotion. She isn’t into all of this drama, like the lot of you. Goldman’s Cohen is robot-like in her fair value assessments and cannot relate to the broken chopsticks manner by which the Shanghai composite conducts itself.

Back in the 90’s to early 2000’s, Cohen was the man (extra Bruce Jenner). Whenever she made a market call, the market heeded it and the media sopped it up like sponges and then squeezed it all over the retail investor, who would then go out and buy stocks. She was always bullish on stocks, to the point of retardation when the dot com bubble killed people. Then Goldman reassigned her and she’s been moving about the globe, nomadically, ever since.

We’re so oversold, the very fabric of this market is being tested now. Bill Ackman’s insane hedge fund, as reported by his own website tonight, is down 11.4%, before today’s ass-kicking. Chinese stocks rose by 1.8% and the NIKKEI barely traded down 500. As a result, SPY futures are up 8.

Are you going to fall for this trick again?

European markets are being called lower. The divergence between large and small cap losses are narrow, which speaks volumes to the level of distribution we are seeing. It is indiscriminate and without bias. Both big and small investors are getting laid into by Mother Market, with her fiercest squall to start a new year…ever.

The market needs to rally now. We cannot wait until Monday or chalk up Thursdays as being too close to Fridays, therefore unable to rally.

The news doesn’t matter, only the emotional fever of the moment. Right now, the mood is wrought with panic. Once the bounce gets going, that panic will transform into unchecked greed and then you will have your rally. Hopefully you’ll still be alive to see the day.

8-27-34-4-19, PB 10

Thus far, just 7 out of the 21 companies that have reported earnings have exceeded the mean estimate. For the first time in well over a decade, the median price to sales ratio of the tech sector is trading at a discount to the overall market. Either sales are about to get hammered, or the tech sector is a ridiculous bargain down here. Judging by the after hours pin action in GPRO, I’d say the former is likely.

The Q4/2015 revenues growth results were not good.

Year to date, global equity losses have topped $3 trillion.

The oil and gas capital structure is a horror show, with over $300 billion in very distressed debt, and another $600 billion looming behind it.

All commodities are in a deflationary vortex, yet the Fed heads keep popping up on the teevee as if nothing happened.

How the fuck can the Fed still say 3-4 rate hikes are in the cards for 2016?

Japanese markets are being rocked, down 700 points, almost 4%. Aside from the ordinary boring nature of people hating stocks and selling them, the non-industrious robot lovers from Japan have provided people with a real catalyst to sell it down. Machinery orders for the month plunged by 14.4%, more than twice the forecast. Since this important data point is a forward looking indicator, one could only surmise that Abenomics has fallen flat on its big stupid face.

Related: Gold is up 0.5%. Oil is flat. And European futures are hammered down 2.3%. So far, U.S. futures response is muted, off by 0.3%.