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Yearly Archives: 2016

THE END OF THE WORLD IS JUST BEGINNING

At the end of the day, we’re all just dust and shadows. The Federal Reserve, led by a maniacal psychopath out of Brooklyn, has destroyed a long and rich history between the world’s leading central bank and global markets. Because of this, the end of the world shall commence.

For those of you interested in saving yourselves, there is still room left on the ark. Last I checked, TLT was trading at $126. Granted, I got onto the ark at $120 and have been enjoying its comforts ever since–lodged in a specialty cabin, adjacent to some zebras and parrots; but there is still some room next to the anacondas for you and your family to seek refuge.

Never say “The Fly” didn’t look out for your well being. This is all being plotted out, methodically, inside of the hallowed halls of Exodus.

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A Quick Update For You FANG Bangers Out There

They’re off 3% as a group today. For the year, Amazon is down more than 15%, NFLX 20%, FB 10% and GOOGL 8% for the year.

Collectively, the FANG banger stocks have shed more than $125 billion in market cap since the beginning of 2016.

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Kudlow: The Fed is Freaked Out By Markets

Kudlow is always bullish on America; hence the name Larry of America was affixed to him back in the 90s. He seems to think the Fed is simply clamming up, scared to do anything. He’s not worried about deflation and wants easy money.

He was happy to reiterate the Fed has been reinvesting MBS, instead of just allowing them to mature. He said if we should ever see that statement removed, “all hell would break loose.”

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The Market is Assessing Disaster

The Former Chairman of the Atlanta Fed, Dorothy Weaver, is a dove. However, even though she believes the Fed shouldn’t hike rates–her arrogance and disconnect with the markets leads her to believe Yellen did the right thing by not communicating with the market.

Weaver said:

“No way they’re gonna be signaling what happens in March. Why do we think there’s gonna be this ultimate clarity?”

There you have it folks. The reason why Bernanke worked and Wall Street trusted him is because he communicated with the market. He didn’t speak in riddles and cruelly allow the market to suffer during malevolent draw-downs, when he could help reverse it. Unlike Yellen, Bernanke was concerned with wealth creation/destruction and saw capital markets for what they truly are: the last great bastion of hope and prosperity for millions of Americans.

This Fed simply doesn’t care. Therefore, you get this.
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YELLEN WANTS MOAR INTEREST RATE HIKES AND I CAN PROVE IT

The production of the ark continues, undeterred by today’s FOMC meeting.

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If you look at that chart, you will see that production of the ark halted before the Fed statement, as traders got their hopes up for a non insane Yellen. As soon as their statement was released, talking about assholes things like the labor market, the builders of the ark, the smartest money, got back to work and continued their work.

I sold off another tranche of SPY. I am 25% TLT, 33% SPY and 42% cash.

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YELLEN DISAPPOINTS

We had a rally, then it vanished. It left because the statement wasn’t enough to ease markets concerns. More to that point, Yellen refused a press conference and the market won’t hear from her until 2/10.

The Fed stuck to its projection that the pace of price gains will rise to 2 percent over the medium term but stated that inflation “is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of the further declines in energy prices.”

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Nevertheless, the market might want to run anyway–hoping what they saw from Yellen was simply a miscommunication. She’s really gonna watch world developments and in no way gonna hike rates. Right?

We shall see.

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Betting On Yellen is Madness; She’s Insane

Traders are taking a huge gamble betting on the Fed to bail them out this afternoon. For the past two weeks, the Wall Street propaganda machine has been in full retard mode, trying to coax the Fed into adopting a “one and done” policy.

“Any reference to the volatility we’ve seen in the global financial markets, and the possible slowdown in Asia, is what the market’s going to be looking for,” said Gary Pollack, who manages $12 billion as head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank AG’s Private Wealth Management unit in New York. “That’ll be key.”

Even before the January market turmoil, fed funds futures were pricing in just two rate increases by year-end. That’s shrunk to about one, and traders see around a one-in-four chance the Fed will raise rates at its meeting in March, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“The belief is that international issues will prevent the Fed from doing the four rate hikes indicated” in December, said John Briggs, head of strategy for the Americas in Stamford, Connecticut, at RBS Securities Inc., one of the 22 primary dealers that trade with the Fed. Officials “are probably going to do as little as they can, so they don’t contribute to volatility in the market,” he said.

About a month ago, I said the market would crash until the Fed surrendered. Well, that’s exactly what transpired.

Reason dictates a rational response from the Fed. Since they hiked, China and oil have collapsed, with the former clownishly shedding $1.8 trillion in market cap. That has to be deflationary.

Copper has cracked. U.S. Steel and others cite an ongoing ‘industrial recession’ for their horrid plights. Even Apple is seeing some serious headwinds in the cycle.

Again, you’re assuming Janet Yellen is not insane. This is a woman who sent out her Fed heads to discuss her fucking ‘dot plot’ of 16 scheduled rate hikes from now until 2018, as the markets were cratering. It’s like she doesn’t own a television or read newspapers. She’s living in a vacuum, where submentals feed her Kansas Fed news only–always hawkish.

Judging her recent behavior and the actions of her board, I think she’s being punitive to Wall Street by design. I think she’s trying to decouple the Fed from the mood of Wall Street, hell bent on seeing rates “normalize”, despite the concerns of nearly everyone about the rate of change tightening aspects of going from 0% to 3% in a world wrought with nothing but deflation.

For my money, TLT is still my top pick.

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U.S. Steel Cites Horrendous Numbers Due to Ongoing ‘Industrial Recession’

Shares of X are down more than 8% to new all-time lows. The stock was $19 during the lowest point of hell in 2009. They lost $6.83 for the quarter, like fucking morons.

CEO Mario Longhi said in a statement the company hopes to trim costs this year, saying it is “facing significant headwinds and uncertainty in many of the markets we serve.” The company forecast the year to be break-even on an adjusted basis.

For 2015, the company reported a loss of $1.51 billion, or $10.32 per share, swinging to a loss in the period. Revenue fell to $11.57 billion, down 34 percent from $17.51 billion the previous year.

Via Briefing.com, here are some notes from their conference call, which is ongoing.
X

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In light of the ‘industrial recession’ that U.S. steel cites as the reason for reporting such monstrous numbers, I wonder how many times Janet Yellen will punch them in the face with interest rate hikes? Maybe 16?

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Apple, Boeing Hammered in Pre Market; Futures Down Over 100

Maybe the market will reverse? BA missed on the top line and the stock is getting claw-hammered, off by 6%. Apple’s numbers came in light, earnings JUST $18 billion for the quarter, sending the stock down 4%.

Are people fucking crazy?

European shares are lower and everyone is waiting for 2pm, when Janet Yellen crawls out from her luncheonette to give a speech on policy. My best guess is wanton stubbornness. After today’s Fed meeting, you’re gonna miss Dr. Benjamin Bernanke so much, you’ll create shrines for him in your house.

Another Dow component, UTX, missed and is trending lower.

Crude oil is off by 2% and financial advisors are kicking their robo-wealth allocators in the nuts, wondering when they’ll go to cash or buy some TLT.

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The PBOC is Requesting Information on Yuan Short Sellers

The great walled country of China, the next great super’d power, wants information–perhaps leading to the capture and execution of parties abroad, responsible for selling short the yuan. The Chinese, who’ve drawn down on their FX reserves to the tune of $500 bill over the past year, have been twisting in the wind–trying to stem the capital outflows out of China. Clearly, short sellers are to blame.

PBOC also asked some Chinese banks and companies to collect information about short-selling orders in the offshore yuan market from Jan. 1, after noticing volatility at the end of last year, said two of the people.

The Chinese government has been seeking to bolster the yuan as capital outflows rose and bets increased that the yuan will depreciate with weakening economic growth. Yuan speculators entering short positions are expected to “suffer huge losses” as policy makers will take measures to stabilize the currency, the official Xinhua News Agency said in a commentary on Saturday.

Speculative bets against the yuan “is one of the few ways for foreign investors to express their bearishness about China economy,” said Tommy Ong, managing director of treasury & markets at DBS Bank Ltd. in Hong Kong. “The offshore market is a little bit more pessimistic about possible intervention than onshore.”

Names and addresses of short sellers are needed, for the benefit of the people of China. Rumor has it that snitches will be rewarded with a 1 yr supply of lizard tongues and dog jowls–supreme delicacies in the ancient republic of China.

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