Stocks Limp into the Bell, Because We’re FOC’d

This was the most pathetic excuse for a rally since the false starts of the dot com days, post implosion. Less than 60% of stocks were up. Oil could not hold onto gains. Gold rages higher. The dollar sold off. Treasuries rose.

Could it get more convoluted?

Investors are unwilling to commit to this market because nothing has been resolved. By nothing, I mean Fed, Oil, China, better known to me as FOC.

Until this concerns get addressed, you’ll continue to enjoy 60% breadth days, with smart money fleeing for the exits into bonds.

I find solace in knowing somewhere Jim Cramer is geeking out over this correlation, as he fucking hates it to the very fiber of his being.

Oil is giving up the goods; therefore, stocks are going lower.

Good old crude, good for absolutely nothing, with exception to heating, transport, plastics and textiles.

Get this, the dollar is tanking, as oil tanks. Who would’ve guessed that? EVERYONE LOSES, in this fucked up casino.

Gold is going higher and has been the bastion of safety, until it isn’t anymore and the shares of the junior miners drop by half again.

As for my money, it stays aboard the ark. We haven’t departed yet. I do see the clouds emerging ahead and the forecast is calling for a light drizzle, amounting to just 10,000 ft of rain. It’s not too late for you to come aboard. I have lots of room next to the boa constrictors and the snow leopards.

It might be a byproduct of commodity related stocks going bazerko (sp?) to the upside, with stocks like CENX and FCX up more than 20%. Nevertheless, it’s worth noting that stocks with 15% or more of their floats sold short are up 3% today, on a median basis. The average return is nearing 4%.

Also, running my momemtum screen in Exodus, which identifies stocks within 1% of daily high end of range, I am seeing lots of short squeeze plays.

How to play it? The fuck do I know? I suppose you can go with some biotech, ranging from GILD down to XON along the risk dial. But I am busy inviting birds and reptiles into my ark, TLT, and I have no interest, whatsoever, in delving into your degenerate world of individual stocks right now.

Shares of BHP and FCX are through the roof this morning as the commodity extended an already decent run, higher in 10 of the past 13 days.

With 17% of FCX’s float sold short, Carl “give me three…seats on your rotten board” Icahn as its largest shareholder, this is setting up to squeeze the shorts and expedite a Viking funeral.

It’s worth noting, at 0.34x sales for FCX and 1.2x for BHP, both stocks, valuation wise, have never been cheaper.

Then again, the world was never ending before, was it?

Stocks look strong. I like the tone and breadth of this rally.

Martin Shkreli went before the show-boaters in congress to testify regarding excessive pricing of drugs. This is especially absurd since Martin is a small guppy fish in a sea of poor people eating sharks. I imagine the fuckheads in Congress chose Martin because his company didn’t donate millions of dollars towards political campaigns, like many of the housing tenement people eating sharks.

Here is the testimony in its entirety.

Someone asked me on Twitter about this, so just know that I didn’t wake up with the intent to rub salt in the wounds of GPRO longs. As a point in fact, I had GPRO in my GARP portfolio last year and was bludgeoned by it. But, my market intelligence platform, Exodus, isn’t addled by opinions or emotions–just mathematical probabilities.

Over the past year, Exodus has crushed the overbought ranges in GPRO and even flagged danger last week.

As you can see, not only has Exodus been obscenely right on the oversold ranges, in a stock that has done nothing but trend lower, but it has also been right on top in 8 out of the past 9 signals.

In bad tapes, the system is especially useful in timing tops, just like it has timed bottoms in bull markets for the past 7 years.

The comment of this clip, however, is from Joe Kernen, when quizzing himself about the whimsical nature of oil and how we perceive its value: “we’re like sheep sometimes.”

Cramer discussed oil and the strong bullet points for it, then depressed himself again, after realizing no one gives a shit.

Everything was supposed to be different. European markets were soaring at the open, up more than 1.5%. Oil was higher and U.S. futures were up triple digits. All of that, and more, has dissipated. Now investors are being offered the rack or the Catherine wheel at the open.

Dow futures are lower by 120.

European markets are bleeding out.

Oil is lower by 1% and gold is, once again, higher to the tune of 1%.

Oh, and the dollar is getting hammered again too, currently at 3 month lows v the euro at 1.12.

The new CEO, Stefan Larson, at RL just made himself look retarded by blaming poor earnings on everything but the fact that he’s a giant ape and doesn’t know what he’s doing yet. Just last quarter investors were encouraged to see olde Ralph get the fuck out of the stores, him and that stupid double breasted blue blazer with gold buttons. But with numbers like these, we might as well bring Mr. Powdered white wig back to drive RL into the ground for good.

Reports Q3 (Dec) earnings of $2.27 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.16 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $2.11; revenues fell 4.3% year/year to $1.95 bln vs the $2.03 bln Capital IQ Consensus; -1% ex-FX.

This was below the guidance provided in November of 0-2% reported revenue growth. While international net revenue grew 6% in constant currency in the third quarter, North America revenue declined 4% primarily due to above-average temperatures for most of the Fall and Holiday period, a decline in foreign tourist traffic and product assortment challenges in the Lauren brand. The decline in reported net revenues included ~300 basis points of negative impact from FX.

Co issues downside guidance for Q4, sees Q4 revs of flat to -2% to ~$1.85-1.95 bln vs. $1.96 bln Capital IQ Consensus.

Operating margin for the fourth quarter of Fiscal 2016 is expected to be ~400-450 basis points below the comparable prior year period, primarily due to proactive action the Company is taking to clear end-of-season inventories related to the sales challenges the Company faced in the third quarter, as well as infrastructure investments and negative foreign exchange impacts.

Co expects consolidated net revenues for Fiscal 2016 to be up ~1% in constant currency and down ~3% on a reported basis. This compares to previous guidance of flat on a reported basis and up 3-5% in constant currency. Adj. operating margin for Fiscal 2016 is now expected to be down 290-320 basis points (from down 180-230 bps).

This stock, potentionally, has a long ways lower–because of FX headwinds, crappy tourists and poor assortment of clothes of course.

Shares of CS are getting hammered on wider than expected losses, generally playing themselves in the biggest way possible.

“We have a clear strategy, clearly we are implementing it in difficult markets and our outlook for the first quarter remains very cautious,” Thiam told an analyst call.

“(We have) very unique market conditions and they are challenging, but fundamentally we are maintaining the objectives and the targets we have presented”.

Four months on from when Thiam set out his strategy, many analysts are still unsure how Credit Suisse will hit growth targets, which include more than doubling Asia Pacific pretax income by 2018.

The bank posted a 2015 net loss of 2.94 billion Swiss francs ($2.92 billion), worse than the median estimate of a 2.12 billion loss in a Reuters poll.

It booked a goodwill impairment charge of 3.8 billion francs in the fourth quarter as a result of the new strategic direction Thiam is pursuing.

The impairment was mostly related to the acquisition of U.S. investment bank Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette in 2000, it said.
The lender said it saw net outflows of funds in two of its three main wealth management divisions during the period, though it target market of Asia Pacific was the exception.
Rival UBS this week announced its best annual results since 2010 although it also saw an outflow of funds and weakening margins at its flagship wealth management business.

JP Morgan Cazenove analysts called Credit Suisse’s results “very messy”, noting an underlying loss before tax versus market expectations of a profit. The bank’s common equity tier 1 capital ratio of 11.4 percent also lagged consensus even after a 6 billion franc capital raising last year, it noted.