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Yearly Archives: 2016

Happy Friday: Stocks Set to Crush the Skulls of Shorts

I know it’s a little pre mature, this being only 7am and all–but equities are looking like they have a rally in them today.

Dow futures are up 150, Europe is higher, gold and bonds are lower, and oil is higher.
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With the Chinese market closed, there is nothing, other than the margin clerk, to set us back today.

Since Exodus closed oversold, I’ll be buying another tranche of SPY today, leaving me with zero cash. I will leverage my account to 200% long, if need be.

I fade the arch pessimism every single time.

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THE CARNAGE: Assessing the Damage Wrought to Equity Prices by the Sector

Someone left a comment the other day, accusing me of being overly dramatic. He said the market was merely correcting, all very normal aspects of a bull market. Fucking moron. I will show you the type of normalcy this market has been exhibiting over the past 30 days, the type of stuff ordinary for a day in red hell.

(Stock, YTD returns, min mkt cap of $1 bill)

Basic Resources (median return -21.5%)
CHK -61%
ETE -58%
MPLX -56%
PAH -57%
ENLK -51%

Consumer Goods (median return -18%)
VC -47%
GPRO -43%
TSLA -37%
FCAU -34%
ST -34%

Financials (median return -16.9%)
NRF -47%
AEL -46%
FDC -46%
CS -41%
SC -40%

Healthcare (median return -21.5%)
ALKS -60%
RDUS -57%
PRTA -56%
RARE -52%
ACAD -50%

Industrial Goods (median return -16%)
ABGB -47%
TGI -40%
MOG’a -35%
ESL -35%
CSTR -32%

Services (median return -17.3%)
FRO -88%
HTZ -49%
LGF -42%
RH -40%
URI -40%

Technology (median return -21.1%)
SCTY -67%
DATA -57%
LNKD -54%
FIT -53%
MOMO -51%

Epic carnage.

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Faber: ‘This Sell Off is Minor Appetizer of Things to Come’

He’s out shitting on Keynesian economics, conjuring up 5,000 years of history dating back to Babylon, to point to the errors of the negative interest rate policies.

He cites One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest as an analogy to describe the current market, where the doctors are insane and the inmates are normal.

Recession is already here.

HOWEVER, before the world ends, Faber is expecting a spring rally–due to the oversold nature of the market. He’d sell on strength and wait for a pop to initiate new short sales.

All very funny.

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The NIKKEI Has Been Shattered to Pieces; Enters Bear Market

It’s off by another 5% today, extending the recent foray into oversold territory by 21% for 2016–so far.

Crude oil, however, is higher by 5.5% (contracts rolled?) on some bullshit story that the hedonistic clowns at OPEC will cut supply. They’re simply too lazy to file the paperwork to care that much.

The Yen is stable vs the dollar, so that’s good news.

Globally, bonds are selling off, which is good for risk assets. Portuguese-German spreads have narrowed to 374 bps.

Gold is down 0.8%.

And, finally, Dow futures are higher by 35 and DAX futures are higher by more than 1.5%.

In summary, Japan is getting rocked tonight because their markets were closed last night. Other than that, there’s been a cessation of selling and it appears the risk aspects of the market are in play.

NOTE: Tomorrow is the last day I’ll accept free trials for Exodus. Give it a try and enjoy it with my compliments.

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Cramer: Yellen Seems Willing to Tip Global Economy into Recession

Instead of going giraffe buckwild crazy on the Fed, like he did in his classic rendition back in 2007, Cramer took a more tactful approach this evening–telling the Yellen Fed that they, in fact, inexorably, know nothing at all.

His point: the Fed should not simply look at employment data as a reason to hike rates. It’s very 1970s. They need to take a step back and take a panoramic view of the destruction they’ve caused.

Tick, tock goes the Cramer explosion clock.

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Martin Shkreli Offers $10 Million for Exclusive Rights to New Kanye West Album

This man is a straight up villain. He’s moved on from AIDS drug price gouging to attempting to monopolize the release of rap music. Next thing you know, he’s buying all of the music and we’ll have nothing left to listen to on the radio, aside from old school jams.
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Bernie Sanders would not be happy about this sort of “rich man” horseshit that Marty is trying to pull off.

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Now Get Ready for a Greek Crisis in March

Are you enjoying yourselves thus far? Markets are in turmoil. Peter Schiff is a genius again. And, most notably, Dennis Gartman hasn’t been wrong in two months.

The world is upside down, so prepare for the closing salvo of this renewed global panic. The nefarious Greeks are about to step into the fold, very, very soon.

We have yet to see a credible plan for how Greece will reach the very ambitious medium-term surplus target that is key to the government’s plans for restoring debt sustainability,” Poul Thomsen, head of the International Monetary Fund’s European Department, wrote in a blog post on Thursday. “A plan built on over-optimistic assumptions will soon cause Grexit fears to resurface once again and stifle the investment climate.”

Greece will need both reforms to its pension system and debt relief from its European creditors to bring its debt levels under control, said Thomsen, who oversees the IMF’s Greek bailout program. Without pension reforms, the country won’t be able to reach its goal of a primary surplus of 3.5 percent of gross domestic product, he said.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has said on several occasions, most recently this week, that any further pension cuts are a “red line” for his government. The fund’s insistence on additional savings from the pension system, in the context of belt-tightening measures of as much as 5 percent of Greek gross domestic product, or about 9 billion euros ($10 billion), may put it on a collision course with Greece’s anti-austerity coalition. Farmers plan to take to the streets of Athens Friday protesting the government’s pension-system overhaul plans.

“Ultimately a program must add up: the combination of reforms plus debt relief must give us and the international community reasonable assurances that by the end of Greece’s next program, after almost a decade of dependence on European and IMF assistance, Greece will finally be able to stand on its own,” Thomsen said.

Greece has a 28 billion-euro loan program with the IMF that expires in March, but the Washington-based fund hasn’t released any funds from the program since June 2014.

Don’t worry a wink. Greece is ready to stand on its own.

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Rally Now or Die

Year to date, or the past 30 days of trade, the U.S. stock market has shed $2 trillion in market cap–due to this egregious global rout. At the same time, Janet Yellen has been of the mindset that the economy was too strong and required higher interest rates, in order to fend off rapid inflation.

She is the Don Quixote of central bankers, furiously steaming towards a legion of windmills with the intent to slew them where they stand.

It’s a helpless endeavor, trying to figure out what’s driving her to madness.

However, I do know a few things about markets and human emotion. We need to stick this landing. Everything has gone wrong in 2016, but gold and treasuries. We haven’t had a long enough rally to enjoy a purchase through settlement date.

That needs to end right now.

We must comport ourselves with the equanimity of “The Dude”, drink a few dozen white russians, then take this market higher…man.

Bonds are selling off. Stocks are bouncing off the lows. Let’s see if we can get something starting during the final hour of trade.

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