Today the Shorts Get Ramsay Bolton’d

I must admit, that was an epic Game of Thrones last night, down to the last scene. I might sprinkle in a fuckload of spoilers today, so be prepared to be furious with me. When John Snow was getting trampled and was suffocating, I too felt short of air. Also, that Ramsay strategy was especially evil, essentially suffocating the Snow army to death, until…

Hey, markets are ripping higher because the bookmakers have Britain remaining in the wretched EU by like 0.5%. The bookmakers also have Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz facing off for President of Mexico.

This whole rally, although predictable, reminds me when Bolton thought he had Snow pinched in that devilish phalanx trap, until the army of the Vail came and ran all those fuckers down like wooden soldiers.

Look, the open will be glorious. As a matter of fact, the entire day is likely to be great. But what if these cigar eating moron bookmakers change their minds tomorrow. Then what?

Then you get eaten to death like Ramsay Bolton by his hungry hounds, who haven’t been fed in 7 days.

Get your free trials for Exodus today. They’ll be ending soon, like the life expectancy of giants in the battle of Winterfell.

Wunderbar!

European banks are knifing higher by 9%. Dow futures are 200 to the good. Both the DAX and CAC are higher by 3.5% and motherfucking Greece is sodomizimg shorts, higher by 5.5%.

This is going to be the best rally of the year, based around the idea that Britain will remain in the horrible EU.

Get your cocaine straws ready, for we’re about to blow today.

The transaction for the Obama administration was an easy one. We couldn’t steal the Iran’s $100 billion or so, which was frozen since those devils have been trying to build nuclear bombs. But the economy has been waning and the Boeing-Airbus lobby was strong. They convinced our autocrats to release the funds, in order to receive $60 billion in new plane contracts.

A fucking win-win.

Iran has signed a historic agreement with Boeing Co. to purchase 100 jetliners, concluding several stages of negotiations, an Iranian newspaper reports.
The plane maker has applied for a license from the U.S. Treasury to permit the deal and the final details will be revealed once government approvals are obtained, Ali Abedzadeh, director of Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization, said in an interview with Iran newspaper.

The transaction would be the Chicago-based plane maker’s first in Iran since sanctions were lifted from the nation in January and follows a $27 billion agreement with Airbus Group SE for 118 planes, including the A380 and A350 models.

Granted, one of these planes might end up in one of our office buildings. Nevertheless, it was worth the risk.

In the event of a BREXIT, the world would blow up in a plume of black smoke. In that eventuality, all those not on the ark shall perish. The good folks over at Morgan are trying to do God’s work. You should let them.

“We suggest investors remain long duration across developed rate markets into the EU referendum,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Matthew Hornbach, the head of global interest-rate strategy in New York, wrote in a June 17 report. “Rates would fall much further on a vote to Leave than they would rise on a vote to Remain.”

This is the height of all stupidity. If there was a pecking order and the dumbest shit ever was at the top, this would be the crown jewel.

Japanese markets are higher by 2%. U.S. futures are higher by 150. Crude is higher by 1%. The British fucking pound is mauling the dollar, up 1.5%. The yen is lower and so are bonds and gold.

Why?

Because some guys in the UK, with smashed upped noses and cigars shoved in their mouths are betting the U.K. will not leave the EU.

Bookmakers’ odds of the U.K. voting on June 23 to exit the 28-nation bloc fell to about 32 percent Sunday, with the poll from Survation for the Mail on Sunday newspaper showing 45 percent of people backed the “Remain” camp, while 42 percent supported “Leave.” The opinion poll is the first since the killing of pro-Europe lawmaker Jo Cox last week.

I remember when the 2005 vintage came out and was praised as the best since 1982, possibly the best ever. Then the 2009-2010 vintages topped that and everyone thought Bordeaux wine, of the first growth category, would continue to surge forever, until it didn’t. The years after 2010 were ruinous for asshole wine brokers, people who buy and sell large quantities of wine futures and never take delivery of the damned thing.

But 2015 promises to, perhaps, match the glory days of 2005, 2009 and 2010, thanks to perfect weather, a very hot June and July followed by a rainy August.

Bordeaux first-growth wine estates on the left bank of the Gironde announced prices 60 percent higher this week for their critically acclaimed 2015 wines as the pace of increases accelerated across the region, according to Liv-ex data.

Chateau Margaux in the Margaux appellation and Chateau Mouton Rothschild in Pauillac both priced their 2015 wine at 384 euros ($433) a bottle, up 60 percent from the previous year, according to the London-based Liv-ex market. Chateau Haut Brion in Pessac Leognan, on the southern edge of the city, pushed its 2015 price up 60.4 percent to 385 euros, while Chateau La Mission Haut Brion, under the same ownership, more than doubled in price to 300 euros.

Gains in top-classed estates exceed those of more than 40 percent for many leading growers the previous week, advances of 32 percent in early June for other classed growths in the region and price boosts of 19 percent for those selling in late May. The release of the 2015 wines has drawn selective demand for the higher-rated estates from collectors while also sparking interest in cheaper, older vintages in the secondary market.

“It was an active week for Bordeaux, with the region’s market share by value rising above 85 percent for the first time since December,” Liv-ex said in its blog.

“Buyers seeking value away from the new vintage frequently opted for the 2012, which accounted for almost a third of all Bordeaux trade.”

If you’ve never had a Chateau Margaux, Latour (the Chinese are crazy for this shit) or Rothschild, you should do so at least once in your lifetime. There is a discernible difference in the quality of the utter shit you buy at Trader Joe’s and a first growth from the left bank.

I’ve got some very interesting things planned for Exodus. Before I announce it, I am opening the platform up to free trials, from now until Monday afternoon.

Enjoy.

Vix futures got you feeling down? The contango in crude ruined your day? Did the dollar/yen cross remove you from your life savings?

Watch Top Hat, starring the indomitable Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers, and I promise you’ll be feeling a lot better by the end of the film.

This is a song and dance movie. I am a fan of Fred’s work, but didn’t expect to enjoy a movie of this genre. I was wrong. It was delightful.

As an aside, watch a 71 year old Fred cut loose at the 1970’s Oscars.

Fred was the man.

Forget about Trump v Clinton. The British Empire’s fate stands in the balance. The corrupt finaglers from Brussels are doing everything they can to prevent England from declaring independence from the EU. They want their fish, their banks, and their people. Markets are going to be EXTREMELY volatile next week. There is a better than average chance that some of you reading this will perish under the brush fires of catastrophic consequences.

The Swiss National Bank is the worst actor in the negative interest rate dilemma, mainly because of their balance sheet success. Because everyone else, save Germany, is an abomination in Europe, whenever things get dicey, people flee to the swissy. In the past, this has put a pervasive and unsustainable pressure on the Swiss banks to deter this from happening. Thus, we are seeing them prepare now, ahead of Thursday’s vote.

“This is an event that is possible, and the probability increased in the last few days, but the base scenario that we have does not include the Brexit,” President Thomas Jordan told reporters in Bern after the central bank kept interest rates unchanged. Nevertheless, “turbulences could arise, and we intend to stabilize the market in case such a situation arises.”

The SNB held its deposit rate at minus 0.75 percent on Thursday, as forecast by economists in a Bloomberg survey. It also reiterated its threat to wage currency-market interventions if needed, saying the franc remained significantly overvalued.

“Fundamentally, we have room to maneuver on these two instruments,” Jordan said. “In a first phase, should the situation arise, it will be about stepping in to markets in a stabilizing manner to prevent exaggerations.”

“We will have a full team that will be following developments as they unfold,” Governing Board member Andrea Maechler said. “We will be following developments very closely. We have a global view, we follow markets on a 24-hour basis.”

“In case of Brexit we expect markets to test 1.05 francs per euro — a level that we expect the SNB to defend fiercely,” said Karsten Junius, chief economist at Bank J Safra Sarasin in Zurich.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict interventions will probably be the SNB’s first line of defense to rein in any currency strengthening. Some also expect a cut to the deposit rate, already at a record low.

Jordan last admitted to currency purchases at the height of the Greek debt crisis a year ago. The SNB has some 600 billion francs ($626 billion) of foreign-currency reserves, a sum almost equal to the economy’s annual output. Growth slowed to 0.9 percent last year due to the strong franc.

In spite of the success of the SNB, their banks are in dire straights. Both Credit Suisse and UBS are trading all record lows. No one is safe. Hide the kids and the husbands.

The last time Exodus flagged oversold was on March the 23rd, 2016. Although rare, I do believe the algorithms are behaving as they should. Markets have, for the most part, done nothing for the past month or so. We’ve seen some weakness in multiple sectors, but not anything that is overly concerning.

But if there’s one thing that I’ve learned since creating this amazing market tool is to be wary of periods of calm, for they always lead to tumult. Over the past two weeks, the algorithms have pointed to overbought conditions in both semis and Asian equities. Today, they are saying to short Brazil and to go short the British pound.

Markets tried to rally today, but the heft and the weight of the selling was a burden too much to bear. With shares of Apple and Google in the penalty box and a sundry of near term events that pose a threat to market stability, investors opted out of today’s rat race.

The bull case, of course, lies with a rejection of the BREXIT referendum, which should spur a feverish rally in European banks. That rally should spill over into our markets and a short squeeze might occur. But the overall sentiment that negative rates have imprinted on markets is one that will not be lifted any time soon. I am somewhat sanguine on the new Fed position, backing away from hiking. However, the way those lunatics talk, at the first sign of economic stability or growth, they might resume the ‘live meeting’ and ‘three more hikes for ’16’ jargon again.

Who knows?

In a world filled with smoke and mirrors and clowns running about splashing cream pies into the faces of investors, this much is, indelibly, clear.

We are entering a period of stagnation. Earnings growth is nil to negative. Valuations are excessive. The main source of liquidity is provided by central banks. Eventually, the fundamentals will matter. Either productivity is set to explode and valuations will grow into their oversized boots, or a lot of jobs are about to be lost and GDP estimates are about to coming tumbling down.

NOTE: Big news coming to members of 12631 soon. Stay tuned.