ATTENTION: WE’RE LESS THAN 100 POINTS TO VALHALLA

Everyone that I know is on edge, as markets slowly careen towards Dow 20,000 — the Mother of all market feats. Forget about all of the world’s problems, the overuse of your credit cards this holiday season, and the vagaries of what a true Trump administration means for you, Dow 20,000 is all that matters.

Like a roving band of Down Syndrome Xmas carrolers, nothing the ardent bulls say to defend this run makes any sense. Even mentioning the idea that stocks should trade lower, let alone crash against the rocks of endless misery, is to be maligned and ridiculed, indefinitely, by much lesser men.

Sadly, my dreams of cascading lower prices, amidst plumes of toxic gas, have proved out to be fruitless, like chasing a phantom into the cold, endless, night.

“The Fly”, once a beacon of hope and prosperity, had suddenly changed, clamoring for world peace to end and for an era of unparalleled suffering to begin. Many were tossed onto the ark, to intermingle with savage African animals, missed out on epic races in the market, all the while waiting for a promise of sudden and complete destruction to invoke itself upon the world to happen.

IT’S NEVER REALLY HAPPENING. Really.

So in 2017, a year which is sure to decide whether or not humans deserve to breathe another year of oxygen, or perish under nuclear clouds, I will cast aside any pre-determined notions and simply idle my active imagination — fueled by my high powered and energetic brain — and simple follow the path of the wretched, like many of you.

I will design a plan that ensures compliance to the markets, irrespective of bias, and attempt to make it interesting enough to keep me innovating throughout the year.

iBankCoin is always changing and out in front of all of the major changes occurring today. We’ll still produce a lot of news content in 2017, but I’m also gonna get back to active management too — something I miss after a year of respite.

Dr. Copper and meme magic have produced great things in 2016, including the worthless tears of Hillary Clinton fanatics. On the very day of final defeat for Hillary, a day which will be celebrated by Trump for electoral college success, copper is plunging — now lower by 1.55%.

Coincidence?

I don’t believe in them.

With all of the supreme rhetoric coming from Trump, regarding China, investors are quietly removing themselves from the boolish on China narrative. Watch it closely and heed attention, for a trade war looms.

Naturally, Trump was wholly correct for chiding the communist scum on Twitter for stealing our underwater drone, done on a platform that has been banned in the canine eating country since 2009. After all, where were the balls on our commanders when they permitted another nation to approach us in international waters and take our shit? We are being lead by feckless people, trickle down cowardice. All of that will change soon. Hopefully.

In response to Trump’s insolence, the Chinese media went apeshit, saying he had no idea how to manage a super power and how China needed to teach him a lesson to put him in his place. The article was greatly infuriating, which is why I’m summmarizing it and not posting snippets.

The main crux of this shitpost is to bring to your attention a possible harrowing blackpill for investors, one forged in Beijing which can easily get out of control quickly.

We stand to lose nothing, aside from a few t shirts, cheaply made at Walmart. Without us, China loses a $550b per annum surplus. They’d literally die.

Copper

Yes, I’m still short $FCX.

Using the screener inside Exodus, I produced the top winners of 2016, with a minimum market cap of $500m. For your convenience, I sorted them by sector. Median returns by sector are also posted below. Also interesting are the total market returns by market cap.

Under $100m: -28%
Between $100-250m: +10%
Between $250-500m: +19%
Between $500-1b: +22%
Between $1b-5b: +22%
Between $5b-10b: +18%
Between $10-50b: +15%
Between $50-100b: +11%
Over $100b: +14.5%

Basic Materials (median return +36%)
$REN +800%
$CLF +482%
$TECK +431%
$AKS +364%
$CC +355%

Consumer Goods (median return +13%)
$NAV +232%
$TWI +183%
$CENT +141%
$SODA +135%
$TSE +117%

Financials (median return +22%)
$CRD-B +156%
$FNMA +137%
$TPL +128%
$FMCKJ +120%
$BSBR +116%

Healthcare (median return -2.3%)
$CLCD +331%
$EXEL +197%
$AVXS +190%
$EVHC +153%
$TSRO +151%

Industrial Goods (median return +27%)
$X +340%
$SPXC +149%
$MDR +124%
$JOY +122%
$KOP +121%

Services (median return +14%)
$CECO +180%
$SNOW +130%
$GRAM +133%
$AVH +130%
$CNV +127%

Technology (median return +15.7%)
$AMD +271%
$NVDA +205%
$OCLR +165%
$AOSL +143%
$S +127%

Utility (median return +25%)
$EBR +383%
$OKE +154%
$TLN +124%
$CPL +105%
$SJW +90%

One of the more prominent hawks at the FOMC is out suggesting that the Fed may need to raise more than 3 times in 2017, in order to destroy the economy, or ‘fight inflation.’

Taking a quick gander at American inflation rates since 2008, God only knows what in the hell Fed’s Lacker is talking about.

“If we were to see a burst of demand growth, that would suggest a steeper path of rates to maintain price stability,” the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond told reporters Friday after taking part in a panel discussion in Charlotte, North Carolina.

“There is a range of paces of interest rate hikes that would qualify as gradual, including paces more rapid than one or two or three a year,” he said. “We can get where we need to be with a pace of increases that qualifies as gradual.” His next scheduled turn as a Federal Open Market Committee voter is in 2018.

“My guess would be more than three,” Lacker said. “I have been advocating for some time that we return — that we raise rates.”

“We think there is some upside risk because the new administration wants faster growth and it is possible some of the things they are talking about will drive productivity higher,” he told Bloomberg in a telephone interview. “But we don’t think that would be likely to occur in 2017. It would probably be 2018 or 2019. That will give us time as monetary policy makers to assess what is being done and make a judgment as we go forward.”

US GDP has been sub 2% for some time now. The notion that rates need to rise sharply to fend off an overheating economy — marred by runaway inflation — is comical.

In spite of taking a year off from picking stocks and actively trading, my twice per annum update GARP portfolio in Exodus, designed for passive, low turn over returns, looks like it’ll close up more than 20% for the year.

The first half was marred by a fucked up crash and subsequent reflation. As you can see from my post on May 31th, 2016, the GARP index registered a return of 2% for the first half.

I specifically designed the 2nd half portfolio, which is long only of 15 stocks in different industries, for a Trump win. The results have been nothing less than stellar. Here is the portfolio and chart of the index — which is trading at 158, up from a February low of 107.

The biggest gains were had in $X, $CLF, SMG, $MFC and $YELP, with leading losers in $UAA and $EXR. The new index, which will be launched after the New Year, will include a specific thesis based off  a strong dollar.

Vince, aka Raul, created the GARP index inside Motif, which permits you to buy all 15 stocks with one click. I do not get compensated for any of this.

The sense of entitlement, the overwhelming pomposity of Mike Farrell imbues this video like a metastasized malignancy. Out with democracy and in with aristocratic rule, where the enlightened shall, forthwith, decide the leaders of our great nation. All of the learned men shall preside over the working class. Glasses brimming with the very best champagne will be distributed, liberally, as these fine men of letters decide our next leader.

The electors and their Hollywood fan club, energized by democratically funded super PACs, seek to undo the elections of 2016 — because of Donald J. Trump, a man who paid over $400,000 in taxes for his Mar-a-Lago estate this year, is ‘unqualified’ to be President. His actions, according to Farrell and others, is ‘scary’; therefore, a leader of extreme political substance, deep from within the crevasses of the DC swap, shall replace him — hopefully continuing onerous policies of a neocon nature. A globalist scourge, with aims to hollow out and rot America from within, will continue to cast its dark shadows over this nation until her phantom pallor is no longer ambiguous — pushing forth divisive policies and social re-engineering policies, and of course war — maybe even with Russia — in order to crack the country asunder.

Heretofore, the will of the people was sufficient. But the rise of Trump is a national emergency. Something should be done, according to Mike Farrell and his cadre of autocrat loving actors — who’ve taken to the patriotic task of informing the people of their grave mistake.

Who needs enemies with friends like Mike?

The agitprop out of the White House isn’t working these days, thanks to the advent of fake news of course. Following weeks of hysteria, following Donald J. Trump’s triumphant victory of Hillary Clinton and Obama’s legacy, Obama took to the podium for one last time to divide Americans — this time invoking the revered late President Ronald Reagan — saying he’d be ‘rolling over in his grave’ now had he known that over a third of republicans approve of Putin in some random poll.

If Obama truly wants to know why Americans are willing to accept the words of Putin, undoubtedly a strong man leader, over his — he should take a look in the mirror and then gander over to his computer to re-read all of the Wikileaks from John Podesta’s email that Putin so graciously made available to us all. They speak volumes about the corruptness and the rot permeating in our capitol. Even without the emails, we see the neocon strategy of persistent war and deceit hollowing out this nation — devouring its resources, emptying its treasury, and there is nothing redeeming about it.

During the press conference, Obama provided his media with incontrovertible evidence that Russia was behind the WikiLeaks, saying ‘not much happens in Russia without Putin’s approval.’

Russia has a land mass of 6,592,800 sq miles and Putin controls every single inch of it. This is retard level thinking.

Moreover, Obama says he told Putin to ‘cut it out’ when he last saw him in China, warning him of serious consequences. Luckily for us, Putin got scared and ceased all further hackings. However, the damage had already been done and the Wikileaks released.

I suppose this type of lazy thinking appeals to a certain subset of America, else why would he make such infantile statements?

The Divider in Chief, one last time reminding himself and the press that XENOPHOBIA against Russians is good. The Russians are a useless sort, who produce nothing of interest, a very small and weak country, only capable of wiping out the entirety of America 10x over via very large nuclear detonations. Oh, and you pesky republicans love Putin because you’re sooo political.

This is what some might call ‘idiotic diplomacy’, mocking and deriding a rival nation to the point of war, a war that could exterminate life on planet earth for at least a millennia. Genius.

Not only is our Fed hiking rates into a suspect economy, they’re also doing it while our European partners in crime are easing via QE. This divergence has resulted in a 66 basis point spread between the Fed and ECB.

Deutsche Bank analyst, George Saravelos, thinks the dollar supremacy will continue, well into next year, punishing the euro to fall well below parity.

Australia and New Zealand are the only other G-10 countries with higher rates, and both of them are literally retarded kangaroo punchers.

“Historically, it is not only the direction of U.S. yields that matters for the dollar but also the absolute level,” Saravelos wrote in a note to clients on Friday. “When the USD joins the ranks of the high-yielders – defined as having at least the third highest central bank yield in the G-10 – it typically rallies very strongly.”

“The last time this happened for more than a few months was in 1979 and 1997; the dollar rallied by 30 percent and 20 percent respectively,” he added.

I’m in agreement with this analysis and believe a much stronger dollar will have a profound impact on the investing landscape. For one, look for the $RUSL to outperform all indices, since just 20% of business comes from overseas.

I don’t believe this will hurt $TLT, as much of the hawkish Fed policy is already baked into the long end of the curve. The main pressure and risks lies in shorter durations.

Gold and silver will get bludgeoned.

Oil and other major commodities will come under pressure.

Foreign investors will flock to our shores, in order to gain access to our markets and currency.

The last time the dollar ran like this was in the late 90s, a period that is considered one of the best eras in investment history — noted for its dot com bubble.

$AGIO is pulling one of two of its rare anemia drugs, due to liver toxicity issues, and the shares are being ravaged as a result.

“Our commitment is to make a difference in the lives of patients with PKD deficiency. It’s fortunate that we have two assets and we’re looking forward to moving AG-348 forward. Obviously, we would have preferred not to have this happen but that’s part of drug development,” said Agios CEO David Schenkein

This stock, along with the entire biotech sector, has been a clown show all year. You can thank punishing healthcare costs for the pushback to this terrific industry.

Here are some of the notable underperformers in the drug space this year.

$ALNY -54%
$ENDP -74%
$HZNP -31%
$RARE -36%
$JUNO -57%
$OPHT -94%
$PCRX -59%
$VRX -86%
$VRTX -39%
$ALXN -38%
$NVO -37%
$REGN -31%

Of the major non levered biotech ETFs, $BBC has performed the worst — off by 35% for 2016.

$CELG is the partner with Agios for both drugs.

One thing is for certain, the market is in love with President elect Donald Trump. The hope for change that is being exhibited by Wall Street, especially in light of Trump’s pro-business cabinet picks, will go down as the biggest post-election rally in the history of the United States.

Since election night, the Dow Jones is higher by 8% — rallying more than 1,000 points — making it the biggest and most gauche rally ever.

Source: WSJ

The Dow’s 8% gain in the five weeks after Donald Trump’s victory is the biggest surge following any U.S. presidential election in history. The rally, which has the blue-chip average on pace for its fastest 1,000-point rise ever, has been accompanied by a sharp jump in bullish sentiment.

When stocks move this far this fast, caution is usually warranted. This time, history might suggest otherwise.

There have been five other instances in which the Dow jumped at least 5% in a five-week period following a presidential election. Over ensuing six-month time frames, it continued rallying four of five times, gaining another 10%, on average.

A blogger cited by Marketwatch has slightly different data. He used the SPX and the Dow when for periods before the SPX was created. The issue I take with that is the SPX wasn’t 500 stocks until 1957, so much of what he has below might be incomparable gibberish. Nonetheless, looking at the tremendous rallies after Teddy Roosevelt, McKinley, Coolidge and Hoover, it appears the Trump-Bump may have room to grow — before being able to claim the top spot — according to this data.

source: Macro-Man