Morgan Stanley: U.S 10 Year to Hit 1%

By the first quarter of next year, the 10 year treasury will hit 1%. By precisely December the 31st, 2016, yields will quote 1.25%, says the sages at Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley, which advised investors to bet on bonds before the U.K. vote to leave the European Union sent global debt markets surging, says Treasury yields are poised to extend their record lows.

The 10-year yield will fall to 1.25 percent by Dec. 31, the company predicts, cutting its forecast from 1.75 percent. It will tumble to 1 percent in the first quarter of 2017, based on the forecasts.

Treasuries will stay in a range in the third quarter, Morgan Stanley predicts. The forecasts were in an e-mail from Matthew Hornbach, the head of global interest-rate strategy in New York. Morgan Stanley is one of the 23 primary dealers that trade directly with the Federal Reserve.

Naturally, this bodes poorly for the risk on perverts who traverse these halls. Then again, who said Morgan Stanley knows anything about bonds? The prevailing trend has been lower for yields, inexorably, for the better part of the last 8 years, so I’m gonna take them at their word.

If our 10 yr is to hit 1%, what in the world will the German bund be by that time? Negative 2 percent?

These lads will make a very fine addition to the EU.

The Minister of the Interior just announced a 17 yr old teenager, of Afghan descent, attacked a train filled with commuters in Wuerzburg, Germany. More than 20 people have been injured, including 4 who are considered to be in ‘grave’ condition.

The terrorist was shot dead by German police and is now stewing in hell.

Update: ‘unaccompanied minor refugee’

Update: It is confirmed that the 17 year old ‘boy’ was an recent refugee who came unaccompanied. Also, people on the train said he was saying some terrorist shit.

Update: Said boy shouted ‘allah u akbar’ before launching his hate filled attack.

Update: News reports now suggest 3 people are in critical condition, while 15 in all have been injured.

No word on whether or not the religion of peace was responsible for these attacks. Maybe it was another repressed homosexual with psychological pork eating problems?

A man attacked a train filled with people in Wuerzburg, Germany and starting swinging a fucking ax into them. The internet rumor is that he was shot dead while attempting to flee.

UPDATE: A 17 year old Afghan has been identified as the attacker, according to the internet at least.

This is some real retrograde shit. On top of throwing a bag of steaming shit at investors, the rocket scientists at NFLX can’t even get the tech right to stream a fucking conference ‘interview’. I don’t know about you, but I am perfectly fine with the old fashioned conference calls. Remember back in the days you had to actually pick up a phone to hear a call?

Well, thanks to modern efficiencies, we can now enjoy an earnings interview with the same fidelity of the 1972 Sunday afternoon kung-fu movie.

Truly embarrassing. Oh, his excuses were bad too; but I was mostly too distracted by the Bruce Lee styled lip synching to heed any attention.

Remember when everyone loved NFLX? Not anymore. This is the most reprehensible company since Mercedes Benz made vehicles for the Nazis. The UNGRANDFATHERING of the subscriptions have, hitherto, not been an issue–until now. It is with the gravest of consequences that I inform you that Pokemon Go and the Olympics will drag on Netflix’s misery. The greedy nature of Reed Hastings, CEO of NFLX, will, ultimately, lead to its delicious and final downfall.

Netflix stock is getting annihilated in the after hours, to the tune of 15%, after the company turned in abysmal subscriber numbers. In a statement by the company, Reed Hastings chalked it up to the companies decision to ‘un-grandfather’ old, low priced, subscriber accounts–exposing millions to fresh price hikes, and not to competition.

Gross additions were on target, but churn ticked up slightly and unexpectedly, coincident with the press coverage in early April of our plan to un­grandfather longer tenured members and remained elevated through the quarter. We think some members perceived the news as an impending new price increase rather than the completion of two years of grandfathering. Churn of members who were actually un­grandfathered is modest and conforms to our expectations.

On earnings, we slightly under­forecast the quarter, ending Q2 with operating income of $70 million and net income of $41 million against a forecast of $47 million and $9 million with the variance largely due to lower­than­expected content and other costs.

Similarly, we don’t believe market saturation is a key factor in the US given that we experienced similar performance over the same period in multiple countries with differing levels of Netflix market penetration.

Our global membership forecast for Q3 includes an impact from the spectacle of the Olympics, on par with what we experienced four years ago, and does not include any boost in the US from the Comcast X1 launch due to uncertainty on timing.

We expect US contribution margin to improve year over year in both Q3 and Q4 and we anticipate meeting our 40% US contribution margin target by 2020, or even earlier.

Unfortunately, this year the regulatory climate in China for our service has become more challenging. Disney’s streaming service, launched in conjunction with Alibaba, was closed down, as was Apple’s movie offering. We continue to explore options and, in the meantime, have plenty of work to do in our newly opened markets.

Continued US growth will be a part of it and there is no change to our view that in the US Netflix can reach 60­-90 million members. We continue to expect to run around break­even on a net income basis in 2016 and to generate material profits in 2017 and beyond.

We still plan to raise additional capital through the high yield market later in 2016/early 2017.

I see no reason to buy this dip. The company, apparently, fucked itself again by raising prices, reminiscent of 2011.

Who said the shopping mall was dead? Has anyone looked at the price of crude lately? It’s awfully cheap and Amazon isn’t going to shut down all of the malls at once. So we might as well partake in a little bit of debauchery, while afforded the opportunity to do so.

Shares of one day defunct American retailer SHLD is leading the fray, with a +4.5% showing. Other standouts include JCP (+2.5%), M (+1.8%), MW (+4.3%), ANF (+3.3%), GPS (+2.6%), BID (+6%), FIVE (+5.5%), BUFF (+5.5%) and ZAGG (+3.77%).

Clearly, I can go one for days, ranting and raving about all of these retailers who’ve, seemingly, found new life at the bottom of the alligator infested pool. But that’d be grapes, of the soured varietal. We should all embrace wanton shoppery of the glamorous sort, as Americans droll on through shopping malls in tow with 70% off coupons, clamoring for the latest designs.

Beau Correll, a good old, genteel, southern, RNC delegate from the common wealth of Virginia, intends to lead a faction of the republican party to deny Donald Trump the republican nomination for President. His reasoning was vaguely mentioned. In between revealing his plot, he scattered a few comments about Hillary Clinton raising more money and Trump operating on a ‘skeleton staff,’ something that is absolutely ABHORRED by the political whores on K street.

Moreover and deliciously Orwellian, Correll painted the GOP insiders as the ones protecting Trump, trying to force his nomination down the throats of the ‘grass roots’ movement, as if the votes of the people meant nothing at all. Let’s not forget it was the RNC and establishment republicans who fought the Trump ascendancy every step of the way, ebbing and flowing and sucking the skin off Jeb to Ted’s man parts, even Kasich, anyone who could preserve their schemes and diabolical plans to sell out American interests to a global oligarchy.

BEHOLD.

And he did it with smile on his face.

Now that Great Britain is leaving the EU, Merkel and the Bundesbank need someone else to fill the void. Why not the Turks? They’re domiciled at the gateway of the middle east. They enjoy a prosperous living and have access to plenty of good, strong, slaves for German factories. Merkel called Erdogan today, likely to congratulate him for his great coup production, and to inform him that if he reinstated the infamous Turkish death houses, it would be entirely unacceptable.

“The chancellor also urged the president to abide by the principles of proportionality and rule of law in the Turkish state’s response (to the coup attempt),” she added. “The recent wave of arrests and dismissals in Turkey are a matter for grave concern.”

“Reintroduction of the death penalty would prevent successful negotiations to join the EU,” Steinmeier said.

Merkel’s spokesman Steffen Seibert told a news conference earlier on Monday that Germany and the EU categorically reject the death penalty.

“A country that has the death penalty can’t be a member of the European Union and the introduction of the death penalty in Turkey would therefore mean the end of accession negotiations,” Seibert said.

I am certain Erdogan and Merkel can come to terms, permitting the Turks access to the ECB fund and QE bond buying program. Do any of you understand how much ISIS oil the Turks could buy if they were able to enjoy EU styled interest rates? Pfff. Wow.

The Turkish 10yr is yielding 9.5%. Compare that to the Italian 1.25% and you can see why Erdogan might want to just kill these ‘coup leaders’ in secret.

This is a recent photo of the Turk coup soldiers under arrest, placed without clothes in a horse stable.

Since the coup failure, Erdogan has arrested 3,000 judges, 8,000 police, 3,500 soliders and over 100 generals and admirals.