U.S. GDP Comes in at a Paltry 0.7%, Missing Estimates

Fourth quarter GDP came in at 0.7%, missing the estimate of 0.8%. Pray tell me, if we’re growing at 0.7% during the holiday season, a time when Americans are programmed to spend all of their savings, AND MORE, what do you think the GDP will do during Q1, 2 and 3 during 2016–post Federal Reserve induced cataclysm?

SPY futures are up 8, off their highs. TLT is now higher by 1.1%.

The result of the Bank of Japan’s blatant currency manipulation is a stronger dollar and flight to treasuries, both deflationary for citizens of this great steak’d nation.

Look for the dollar to continue to make gains v the yen, providing the robot lovers with the ammunition they need to unfairly compete with our exporters.

Interested in higher stocks? Fugetiboutit. You’re not getting shit, with TLT pressing new highs. As a matter of fact, you should be fading this rally–as it is built upon the empty skulls of brainless day traders.

Sure, anything could happen–I suppose. Then again, maybe it doesn’t. The point is, stocks can’t rally when U.S. treasuries are removing liquidity from the marketplace. The negative rate craze, which seems to be all the rage in Europe and Japan now, is lunacy and highly deflationary and detrimental to your financial well being.

Central governments love it, since they’re able to build bridges to nowhere with your money–that you PAY THEM FOR TO BORROW.

This is, by far, the greatest robbery and tax ever levied against the people on planet earth. Nevertheless, having 25% of my assets in TLT, I am happy for it.

Make no mistake, this is all about the yen, trying to recapture market share from China by devaluing their currency. It seems everyone is trying to devalue their currency at once, with exception to the United States, because the pie isn’t big enough for everyone. The world is a giant gluttonous pig, fat off of decades of excess spending, trying to stay afloat by stabbing each other in the back through currency wars.

Chinese-Japnese cross

The truth is, this is about the debt and the inability for governments to cope with it. This game of smoke and mirrors will continue, for as long as they can keep it going. But the deflationary vortex is real. Governments are stymied, unable to properly stimulate their economies because they are built upon a weak fabric.

The NIKKEI 225 has been on a rollercoaster session tonight–but it looks like it will end comfortably in the green.

European and U.S. markets should surge at the open, anywhere from 1-2%. It’s a risk on day, a well deserved respite after enduring a hellish three weeks of drawdowns.

The NIKKEI roared like a bat out from hell after the BOJ announced it was going to fleece their horde of millionaire octogenarians. At the highs, the NIKKEI was up 600 to 17,638. Then it plunged after people got all confused, and shit, forcing me to amend my headline and look generally childish in my reporting.

However, lo and behold, a more seasoned school of investor snatched up the NIKKEI bargain at 16,767 and have bid it up to where it stands now at 17,300, up 300 or so points.

S&P futures are partying again–higher by 9. I make no assumptions, however, as to where this all ends up. All I know is that people are being used as crash test dummies in the NIKKEI this evening and the folks at BBG news are having a grande old time reporting on it.

We are in full blown rally mode in Asian markets, as well as U.S./European futures, after the Bank of Japan surprised markets with an all hands on deck thrust into the abyss, moving interest rates to -0.1%. The dollar is soaring v the Yen. The NIKKEI is up more than 500–even crude is higher.

This rally is going to stick.

This is an important step towards fending off deflationary pressures, ignoring Japan’s aging population who keep their money tucked away in banks like morons. From hereon-forth, said morons will have to pay their local bank for the pleasure of holding their money.

The banksters have a strong racket going.

UPDATE: The NIKKEI gave up a 500 point advance and is now lower by 170. S&P futures are barely higher and the Bank of Japan played itself.

The fan boys at Bofa/Merrill (God I hate that fucking name) are out tonight, supporting the shit numbers that Amazon put forth. No mention of their absurd $100-700 mill operating net income guidance–just boolish talking points.

Maintain Buy; A setback but not a thesis changer While 4Q was disappointing, our long-term thesis is based on Prime drive market share gains (Prime customers grew a healthy 51% in 2016) and AWS valuation creation (higher than expected AWS margins suggest bigger long-term profit potential) and we believe our thesis is intact. We see Amazon as the best 3-4 year growth story in the sector on eCommerce penetration and cloud adoption, with a potential market cap of $500bn. We think 1x our 2016E GMV (over $200bn estimated) plus 5x our 2016E AWS revenues (over $12bn in estimated) could provide some valuation support.

Actually, I’m gonna walk back what I said in the first paragraph. Paul Bieber, likely the Father of Justin, said the $100-700 mill guidance was “neutral to positive.”

That makes sense. Nothing inspires confidence like a 700% range in possible earnings outcomes. It’s like playing a leisurely game of Russian Roulette, only with your money–instead of your brain.

Bieber maintained a $775 p/t.

Jim Grant is the most moribund person in N. America. Nevertheless, he’s widely followed and respected in the interest rate world of librarians and yield scavengers.

Jim believes the Fed will “recant and reverse” its policy and enact another round of QE. Jim believes, deep down, the Yellen Fed are filled with a bunch of no-nothing assholes, better deserving to run iced cream’d parlours in Brooklyn, than the largest central bank the world has ever known.

Jim Grant’s bow tie game is strong and proper.

He’s a ticking time bomb. Sooner or later, he’s going to throw a chair at the camera, or spit on someone, because of Yellen’s hawkish position on rates. I’d like to see him interview one of the more hawkish Fed heads, like Bullard, and bear witness to a Mortal Kombat Cramer fatality move being performed for us, live on CNBC.

Cramer speaks truth in this clip, aired tonight on Mad Money. By pursuing a hawkish stance on rates, the Fed is hurting main street. They’re completely delusional about the specter of inflation and have been the sole cause of panic in the globe since the December rate increase. More than that, their failure to take the March rate hike off the table has exacerbated an already tenuous situation–which has caused investors to flee from the field of battle and seek refuge in treasuries.

The main impediment for U.S. companies these days is China and the strong dollar. While the Fed may not be able to fix China, they can most definitely cease pandering to the Europeans and start easing back on the strong dollar policy–that is having a deleterious affect on U.S. industry.

Cramer has been killing it as of late.

While perusing the Bloomberg website for some good video clips, much to my delight, I stumbled upon his Lordship, Howard Lindzon of the Coronado, discussing events of worldly importance. His takes on Facebook, Google and Apple will go down as legendary.

He called Google the new Berkshire Hathaway and how Amazon would one day become the world’s biggest company. He did mention Netflix in a Freudian slippish type manner–before delving into his ancient age and how Facebook appeals to his demographic.

His core thesis for success is to capture human beings at the tender age of 8, coercing them into becoming customers–and then spitting them back out into the matrix after the elderly age of 80.

BEHOLD.

“There are still people living in the bush…bearish days everything we built will fall into the ocean.”

Lord H. Lindzon, 2016

If you’re wondering the background behind Lord Lindzon, it’s his estate at Coronado– overseeing the pacific ocean– where he raises livestock and produces fresh corn and oranges for the United States and Monaco.

What sort of company gives operating income guidance–ranging $100-700 million v an estimate of $650 million?

Amazon sees Q1 operating income of $100-700 mln vs ~$650 mln estimate; revs $26.5 -29.0 bln vs +22% y/y to $27.7 bln consensus

I’ll tell you the sort of company. It’s the type of company THAT DOESN’T GIVE A SHIT ABOUT MAKING MONEY. Jeff Bezos is an evil villain, who is wholly consumed with world domination. He wakes up thinking of ways to destroy mom and pop stores, as well as large box retailers. He is winning–because Wall Street has provided him with time. Sooner or later, Wall Street will run out of patience and throw his stock into the streets.

The company missed by 0.58 and was light on revenues too.

Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.00 per share, $0.58 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.58; revenues rose 21.9% year/year to $35.75 bln vs the $35.98 bln Capital IQ Consensus and $33.5-36.75 bln; operating income $1.1 bln vs ~$1250 mln estimates and $80-1280 mln guidance.

North America retail operating income +37% to $1 bln, sales +24% to $21.5 bln.

AWS operating income +186% to $687 mln; rev +69% to $2.4 bln.

Co issues in-line guidance for Q1, sees Q1 revs of $26.5-29.0 bln vs. $27.72 bln Capital IQ Consensus; operating income $100-700 mln vs ~$650 mln estimates.

Amazon is off by $82 or 12% in the after hours. It’s only down a net $30 from yesterday’s close, so the fun might just be getting started here.