The Winds Have Shifted West

A bunch of homosexual firms started coverage on YELP today with price targets ranging from $23 to $28. The lead underwriter, Goldman Ballsachs, started them with a neutral and a price target of $26. In other words, they are playing the game. Despite YELP’s crazy price/sales valuation, they weren’t thrown under the bus by Wall Street’s brightest and best because social networking is the new telecom. In other words, they are all competing for lucrative investment banking deals and rather not fuck up their credibility with prospective clients than make ballsy valuation calls on one of the industries key names. With Twitter, Foursquare, Pinterest and others, at some point, scheduled to come public, these dicksuckers (brokerage firms) are clamoring for deals. Hence, you will not find any big bracket firm overly negative on any social media company.

Just my two cents.

Futures are sharply higher, as concerns in Europe eased a bit. Yields tightened and their fucking markets ripped higher; hence, we are following suit–buoyed by robust earnings at AA. The tone and tenor of this morning’s tape is good. However, I am not going to jump to conclusions and suggest the coast is clear. What we witnessed over the past week was likely a garden variety correction, something completely normal in any tape. The specter of Europe delving back into a liquidity crisis is too unbelievable, like a sick, twisted Alfred Hitchcock movie. I can’t deal with end of days trading scenarios; it’s too much to bear.

Gold and silver stocks are both extremely attractive to me. But with 107% of my capital invested, I don’t have room for another investment. Clearly, commodity related stocks have been beaten to a pulp. The lion-share of the losses have been in precious metals and oil stocks. It’s as if the expensive and lucrative prices of the underlying commodities were meaningless. Eventually, something has to give. Either raw commodity prices are coming way down or the stocks are going way up. There is no middle ground.

Will I lighten up if we rally hard today?

Frankly, it all depends on what stocks run the most. If I get a few 5-7% runners, I might sell them in order to make room for something of higher quality that has sold off recently. Or I may eat a sandwich and take an afternoon nap, happy to make back some of my lost treasures.

I report to you for the first time today, here on iBC, I stepped in using leverage to buy the dip. For the first time since 2009, I exercised margin agreements to add to positions. This is what life is all about, after all–throwing good money after bad.

The Gods winked at me today, bidding YELP higher, alleviating the pressure exerted to my neck. At any rate, “The Fly” is not only speeding in a car made from dynamite sticks, heading towards the Sun; but that shit is on fire too.

Here is my allocation, on the table. Critique it all you want. It is what it is and it’s a big fucking bet.

YELP 30%
TDC 20%
BID 10%
JWN 10%
GLW 12%
CPST 10%
MAS 10%
CLR 5%
———
7% levered into the teeth of a mean correction.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPDw817npFw 603 500]

I warned myself of ‘Dark Clouds Emerging‘ overhead. The symmetry of fucking myself in the exact way of last year was and is sublime. Last year I missed the top by a few days, this year a few weeks. Once again, I find myself in the untenable position of sucking when the chips are falling off the table into the sewer below.

Today hurts and hurts bad. Even though my top two positions, YELP, TDC, are doing okay, my retail positions, JWN and BID, are getting fucking clobbered today. The amount of money that is flying out of the window is somewhat staggering, even more so because I knew this was going to occur. Nothing lasts forever, not even calculator brains and plutonium powered time machines.

Barring some sort of perverted come back, The PPT will likely close OVERSOLD today for the first time this year. I tell you this, not out of the generosity of my soul, but because I am a man eating a plate filled with potato chips as if they were health snacks. I eat them like vitamins, ignoring my proclivity for high cholesterol and blood pressure because I am KAMIKAZE and the world is my Pearl Harbor.

If you haven’t noticed by now, I have a lot of pent up anger, boiling inside of me, waiting to come out. I try to comport myself like a gentleman at all times, preferring the softer sounds of classical music when in the public view. I hold doors for ladies and old fuckers and adhere to all of the laws of the land, like a good sheep. But one of these days, I am going to go “Hulk Hogan” (no homo) on the world, ripping off my shirt, leg dropping the faces of countless people/neighbors in my vicinity. My arms will flail in the wind, knocking out jaws and teeth, as if they were cheaply made toys from SHENZEN, CHINA.

I am going to stop writing now and resume droning on at the altar made from potato chips, quietly in the dark, musing to myself the perplexities of atomic energy. Feel free to sell everything and hide under your covers for the remainder of the day. First thing tomorrow, the selling will continue in earnest, causing you to sell some more.

Here we go again. European indexes are knifing lower, with Germany and France off by more than 1.7% and 2.4% respectively. The big deal is Spanish and Italian sovereign bond yields, with Spain approaching the ominous 6% level. In the short term, this can definitely shake people out of their stocks, especially since we’re heading into earnings season anyway. With the S&P up 11% year to date, there are profits to be taken. Unfortunately, not everyone has fared so well.

For the most part, the basic material sector has been raked to pieces in 2012. This has been a sector, traditionally, that tracked the market closely, offering outsized returns during periods of “risk on.” This has NOT been the case in 2012. Those investors are down for the year, suffering under great piles of metals and farm equipment.

Like last year, there is a good chance we give back all of our gains here, heading into the somber summer months. And, once again, I called the top and positioned for it, yet find myself fully invested into the fucking vortex of the correction. History repeats itself because people never learn from their mistakes. By the time people “get it,” they die.

All in all, today’s tape is dreadful. I haven’t even bothered to open up my trading platform, as I have no intentions to buy or sell anything. I am not selling because of stubbornness and I’m not buying because the sellers are in control.

Nevertheless, this panic mongering and subsequent market sell off will be dealt with in the same manner as the previous set of crises: central bank intervention and free money. This is all show business and none of it will lead to the collapse of the EU. Like it or not, they are “all in” on this EU experiment, as demonstrated by their LTRO actions.  In recent years, betting against the stupidity of policy makers, ironically, has been the dumbest trade of all.

I remember when DELL was the shit and the markets were cratering (and I mean cratering) back in 1998. The stock would go up $3 per day, whilst the rest of the market crapped out. During every big run, there is always an “anointed” stock, a place where money managers and retail park cash for safety and growth- dual purpose. Apple is no longer your tell, unless you own AAPL. The market can drop 400 today and AAPL will close up 40 cents.

You need to watch the sectors that have been leading the market to see if they are rolling over. Inside of The PPT, I set up custom indexes, in order to serve this purpose. Banks and commodities have rolled over the hardest, threatening 3 month lows, believe it or not. Social networking and tech have held up much better. In the middle of everything is my GARP (growth at a reasonable price) index. These are stocks, hand picked by me every 6 months, that represent growth but with good to great valuation metrics. Some index members include: GMCR, AAPL, ADS, ARUN, WYNN, FOSL, CAT etc.

Here is the 3 mo chart for GARP:

What do you think?

From my untrained, disdainful eye for technical analysis, it looks top heavy, ready to fall.

We’re all relying on mystical governmental powers to buoy stocks higher here. But keep in mind, those rapacious dicksuckers want lower gas just as much as higher stocks. How do you get lower gas? Deflation scare.

Under that scenario, stocks trade lower and TLT goes back to $120. I take it upon myself, through the foraging of information from every corner of the globe, to identify inflection points well in advance of my peers. Regrettably, thanks to the sorcery and smoke screens of The Fed, I have no fucking idea what is in store next. All I know, like a blind man using instinct when crossing the street, danger lurks around the corner and the season to be defensive or bearish approaches with celerity.

“Let  me tell you what is coming. After the sacrifice of countless millions of treasure and hundreds of thousands of lives, you may win southern independence, but I doubt it. The north is determined to preserve this union. They are not a fiery, impulsive people as you are, for they live in colder climates, but when they begin to move in a given direction, they move with the steady momentum and perseverance of a mighty avalanche, and what I fear is that they will overwhelm the South with ignoble defeat.”

BEAS,1861

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxDP6q6C5mE&feature=youtube_gdata_player 603 500]

Macabres rejoiced into the bell, sending the Dow Jones Industrial average down a staggering 130 points.  Investors ran for the exits in big cap names like AAPL, which was up just 0.4%. Oil, and other commodities of that genre, plunged amidst renewed concerns that Spain was filled with deadbeat spanish people and the Irish are still drunk and violent.

Memories of the bull market of just yesterday have faded and been replaced with the starkest visualizations known to mankind, such as BLACK SMOKE, CHARDS OF METAL and AAPL up just 0.4%.

As for me, I simply marked time, with heinous losses in MAS, CPST abundant and clear, but offset entirely by YELP.

Facebook bought Instagram for an outrageous valuation, resulting in a 40x profit for venture capitalists who funded it just last year (shout out to Phil Pearlman for nailing Instagram at iBC’s annual dinner last August). As a shareholder and fervent supporter of the superfluities of Howard Lindzon, I look forward to StockTwits being acquired for no less than $2 billion, over the next months or years to come.

Finally, iBC is looking to start investing in start-ups, mainly because we are flush with cash.

Times are tough for a Space Alien Magician (SAM). Gone are the days when people in wheeled chairs parked near open manholes. These days I find myself forced to exert energy to throw those fuckers to their “wheeled deaths.” And, the fucking stock market is fucking people again, with marksman precision.

http://youtu.be/oZbfuHJW8TQ

Facebook is buying Instagram for a billion and Instagram doesn’t do shit. Like real estate, the internet is all about acquiring the best properties, then killing your enemies with agonizing bankruptcies.

Top Websites in America, by Alexa.com

In  social media, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram are the dominant places where people converge to talk shit. Moving on, when it comes to reference, GOOG, Wikipedia, TRIP and Yelp are the dominant sites and apps that people use, in order to get smart. If you want to know about random shit, you go to GOOG for information. If it’s something specific, you type in ‘HORSESHIT wiki’ into google. And if you want information about restaurants or hotels, you go to Tripadvisor and Yelp.

When outside of some suspect eatery, pondering about delving inside for a quick bite, one might say ‘hey, YELP this restaurant to see if it’s any good.’

The future of this fucking civilization is getting access to information, from real people, in real time. With more than 67 million page views per month, Yelp ranks #42 in the United States. With regards to valuation, it’s foolish to put a multiple on something that is growing so fast (60%+) and that is likely to be acquired. Just a few years ago, YELP rebuffed several offers to sell for $500 million. Well, since then the company has grown quite a bit. In other words, there is a floor in the shares, likely at around $1 billion.

In my opinion, this can grow into a $5 billion dollar company. Once YELP expands globally and people catch on, this fucker is going to be off to the races and will not look back, roasting shorts–rotisserie style– along the way.

NOTE: I added to my YELP position today.

As the market and the economy softens, Benjamin Bernanke waits in the tall grass, smoking blunts filled with potent marijuana, exclaiming “I’m gonna get those bitches, just watch.”

I believe Ben gives a speech tonight and everyone is now chit-chattering about what the Fed will do come July. Will they do another ‘Operation Twist’ or maybe something a little more exotic this time around? Frankly and sincerely, the world wants and needs to know. The prospect of having to deal with the caprices of the overzealous and gluttonous bears, always wanting more out of their FAZmolbiles, is almost insufferable. These bears walk around town like pompous jackasses, flaunting their extraordinary wealth, embodying the virtues of prudent “mal-investment.”

“The Fly” once sat in the tall grass, waiting for a meal to come his way. Instead, he was lured out into the field with the rest of the zebras and now finds himself paranoid from whatever  lurks in his former hiding spot. I SHALL NOT fear losing a few millions. It’s simply paper that turns into dust, with a snap of the finger, then a memory.

As an aside, my real estate hunting is going quite poorly, as the market for desirable properties in NJ is extremely tight. Basically, if your home is updated and in a good location, it is selling within weeks. All of the other HORSESHIT, with kitchens dating back to 1986, are sitting on the market, fucking it up for the rest of the honorable people in need of property appreciation.

I foresee prices stabilizing very soon, then going up. There just isn’t enough quality on the market. Eventually, after all of the jackasses with disgusting bathrooms sell their homes for 20% below ask, the market will bottom and head north.

Just my two cents.

“Poof! Like magic, your fucking rally has vanished.”

-MERLIN

Hedonistic joy and ebullition is going to be exchanged for dark death and capital punishment. Very quickly and sweetly, equity markets are now in peril because we are not creating jobs fast enough. If I recall, this is the same HORSESHIT that graped stocks last year. Having said all of that, symmetry always reigns supreme, and I am bound to give back all of my gains, AND MORE, because that’s what the Gods want to happen.

See, I have no choice in the matter. No matter what I do or say, losses shall be had, because my life is designed through grit and hardship to make me a hardened, callous person. Sure, I throw old fuckers onto live electrical wires and men in “wheeled chairs” into idle sewer pipes. It’s not because I am a “bad man”, only because I am built to do such things. For example, many of you are programmed to celebrate the “zombie lifestyle” every Easter, going to church and making believe you’re all pious fuckers; when in fact, you are vagrants. I, on the other hand, enjoy to eat and play “find the hidden eggs” with my kids, purely a secular tradition.

But something very dark and ominous emerges, dear friends. I can only sense it through the deepest corners of my subconscious. YELP is only part of the punishment that I have been sentenced to. I gather from my increased arrhythmia, the whole lot of my holdings shall fall like Rome to barbarian hordes or Mexico to stupid.

The reality of the situation cannot be altered or changed, in any way. I cannot go back in time and change things because that would mess up the space-time continuum, thereby setting off a sequence of events that might render my life obsolete. Losses must be booked if the direction is lower. Being stubborn and failing to acknowledge a wrong position will only deepen the agony and make for a harder revival.

Get it?

Cheers to revivals on this easter sunday aka “zombie lifestyle” day.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Sn6u5YPfZA