Why Are You So Fucking Scared?

You’re all a bunch of pussies. What’s to worry about? Are you scared Greece will leave the EU and cause a domino effect in Europe, shattering every single bank to little pieces? PFFFFFF. You know that shit won’t happen. You also know “The Fuckbook” just lost $40 billion in market cap over the past week. There can no longer be a discussion, asking whether Margin Stanley is being guided by criminal elements. More than that, it’s the VC’s who are to blame, the butt-fuckers who kept upping the valuation of FB in the private markets, through ponzi scheme financings, knowing they’d one day get liquid on unsuspecting sanitation workers at E-trade.

Accel Partners (assholes)
Digital Sky Technologies (Moscow based bucket shop)
Peter Thiel (this fucker is King Ponzi, investor in all social media bubbles)

The above assholes are just three of many assholes who helped rape the US investor, via INVERSE QE, slapping “The Fuckbook” across the faces of school teachers at E-trade at an outrageous 26x sales (102 BILLION mkt cap).

Moving on: Italy had a bad bond auction, mainly because people would rather piss on them than put them in their safe. US and German yields are hitting record levels. For us, this is fantastic. We can spend all of the fucking money we want because it’s practically free.

I am going to condense everything for you in a few thoughts. Europe is not allowed to fail. There is no such thing as whole continents failing. Moreover, policy makers are keenly aware of the issues and are waiting for the right time to melt off the faces of those who are betting against them. Look what they’ve accomplished in recent weeks: commodity prices have plunged and demand for US, UK, German and French bonds are at record highs. Very soon, they will flip the switch and bail everyone out with some sort of Euro-bond guarantee. When it happens, everything will go up. And, don’t forget about the Chinese. Those clever fuckers will punch faces and dicks off until their economy grows at 10% again.

Until then, I sit in the dark eating sandwiches with savage nobility.

http://youtu.be/t4A29uG0KBc

Eventually, all of this planning that I am doing is going to pay off in spades. Like I said yesterday: there is 1 more epic trade to be had until September and I intend to nail it.

This morning I sold out of EXK, only because I had to. I was up about 7% in the position and it was a 10% holding. The only problem: my other silver position, AG, was also a 10% holding and I was flat on it. So I took profits on EXK and reallocated about half of the cash into CLF and accumulated more NXPI and MTW–both legacy positions of mine.

My intention is to capture the full body of this move, if we are to get one. Providing we get one, I am fairly certain anything related to China will power forward. This means industrials, basic resources and even burritos. Keep in mind, the Chinese H shares are the cheapest stocks in the world, now trading just 6x next years earnings, AS AN INDEX. Compare that to our 12-14x, you can see how bearish people are on China.

For the moment, everything I do will trade around my YELP and CPST positions. All stocks can be sold, except those, and will be sold when the appropriate level of profit presents itself.

Here is my short list of “China-centric” names that I am keenly focused on, some procured from the hallowed halls of The PPT, others from my various spies on Wall Street.

YZC
HUN
MT
MTL
MTW
TEX
KOR
FCX
CLF
TCK
BHP

If we get a move in the market, the above stocks will serve me well. If the market fails, those fuckers are going down double digits. It’s high stakes investing out there, player, not for the faint of heart. Watch the euro/dollar cross and how Australia trades tonight. I am also looking for more rumors of Greek bailouts and favorable polling data–pointing to victory for the bailout fuckers.

In the end, “The Fly” wins. All of this shit you see here is simply drama for the unwashed, keep those fuckers interested like this shit was a soap opera.

I edged higher by 0.7%, despite having a fucking sinkhole heavily overweighted in my portfolios. As it stands now, YELP represents just 20% of my assets, thanks to all of that awesome depreciation. Thank the heavens for my other stocks, like TEX, EXK, MTW and NXPI, carrying the water for my YELP.

Naturally, the social media sector is being compressed, all thanks to the purposeful and criminal elements inside of the once great firm “Margin Stanley” (h/t:ZH).

The sniveling bastards at MS are the reason why my YELP is going lower. Nothing about YELP matters right now, but the valuation comparison to FB. As the FUCKBOOK valuation drops, so do its peers. I hope the spastic retards at MS (pun intended!) enjoy the 1.1% fee they received for doing the FB deal. Oh, what a splendid job they did too, inviting a bunch of flippers into the deal, fucking it from day 1 because their valuation metrics were off kilter.

See, Margin Stanley is a microcosm of what is wrong with present day America. One day, MS will go bankrupt or delve into oblivion forever. How do I know this? The fucking writing is all over the FUCKBOOK wall (another pun, and yes it was intended!). At this stage, all I can do it make up my YELP losses elsewhere and wait for the company to prove itself, independent from the leviathan that is FB.

With regards to the market: standard bounce, nothing too grande. Let’s see what tomorrow brings before we get excited.

BONUS: Chart Art.

I sold out of EXK because I have plenty of AG.

I added to my NXPI and MTW positions and started a new one in CLF.

Let’s not exaggerate today’s move for something surreal. This is a standard bounce, based upon the premise of future Chinese easing. The rumors are becoming more pronounced, more detailed, with regards to imminent Chinese stimulus to bolster their economy. We all know of Europe and how its cancerous tumor is spreading. Well, the Chinese have much to lose, being major trading partners of the dicksuckers in Europe. Therefore, basic resource stocks are outperforming, including two positions of mine: TEX and MTW.

When the printing presses get going, you will see silver rise from the smoke and ashes to choke the life out of those who bet against it. Until then, it will take a back seat to some of the more heavily battered names out there.

Once again, “The Fuckbook” is pillaging the shares of its peers. This ipo has been so fantastic. I’d like to thank the underwriters at Morgan Stanley personally for putting together such a well timed and mathematically perfect offering, for it has done nothing but breathe life and honor into this market.

Although I “love” the social media sector, in a draconion sadistic sort of way, the correct play now is to be long Chinese-centric names, in anticipation of stimulus/easing. Everything else will fall into place, eventually. The bears will focus on the weak names, like FB, but will leave quickly if this rally get legs.

Don’t bet on it unless you can afford to lose or lack the emotion that stimulates fear.

Top picks: RS, EXK, AG, TEX, MTW.

I emphatically believe the back and forth between a wholesale liquidation of the global financial system and not is setting up for one spectacular long-only trade. The news will come, as sure as I am sitting here, leading to a grotesquely ferocious rally. My gains, now currently at 5% YTD, will triple in one to two trading sessions. At that point, I will sell, never look back, and go on vacation until September.

The temptation will be there to keep playing, pressing bets into the slumbering summer heat. However, it will be a suckers bet. The resolution of Greece will only extend to Spain, then Italy, then Portugal etc. This all ends in massive losses. Before that occurs, however ironically, there will be massive gains to be had–most of which will be found in the precious metals space. My two favorites are EXK and AG, both trading 30% cheaper than where they should be trading.

There is an epic trade to be made and most of you are primarily looking for downside plays, ghastly beings that you are, sadly enough; you will be used as tinder for my summer fires. You’re all looking for overvalued social media stocks, distracted by the Facebook ipo and all of its grandiosity. Well, boy, let me tell you such a fool is easily separated from his coin, not so much different than snatching a gold necklace off the neck of a baby girl.

This is not a market call based on technicals, fundamentals or gut instinct. This is fact and should be treated as such. Sometime soon, you will look back on this post (link to it if you like), as one of the many scriptures that have been inked on iBankCoin, a living testament to what real trading is all about. It’s not about fear or greed, but conviction. Like my ancient ancestors, who lived and died by the sword, fighting battles, with axes and trebuchets, to protect or capture European castles in far away places–“The Fly” is here to defend what is right and just in the financial world.

The FAZmobile doesn’t have an adequate braking system and is heading towards a brick wall doing 225 miles per hour.

The old adage of “go away in May” is real. The ominous part of “go away in May” actually lies in the month of June, if I might point that out to you. As a point in fact, on average, May is a mixed month. Month to date, the SPY is down 5.56%, following a -0.67% showing for April. The last time we had a negative return in April was in 2005, when the SPY traded down 1.88%.

The last time stocks did this poorly in May was in 2010. The following Month, stocks tanked by another 5.17%, leading to a fierce reflex rally in July, gaining 6.83%.

Here are the SPY returns for June, dating back to 1993.

That’s right, the market has gone in June each of the past 5 years. More than that, the SPY hasn’t posted a +2% June since 1999. In short, don’t expect the market to come out with guns blazing to save the bulls from bear market misery. If we do have a great June, it will be an anomaly, statistical oddity. In other words, don’t position for it.

The trading action this month is the second worst performance in May, dating back to 1993.

If you look back in the data, seasonality stats provided inside The PPT, big down months of more than -5% usually follow up with another dismal trading month. The momentum to the downside may have just begun, unfortunately. Of course that doesn’t mean everything will trade down. As a matter of fact, deeply oversold stocks may bounce soon and hard. But, at a minimum, I reckon traders need to be cognizant of the “Seasonality Gods” and how it portends to trading against the odds.

The most likely scenario is a June washout, followed by a kick-ass July, just in time for this fat country’s birthday festivities–similar to what we saw in 2010.

I like to consider myself a “nice guy.” Aside from the fits of violence upon NY’s homeless and elderly population, I comport myself with extreme chivalry, during most venues. I am a family man, law abiding citizen, generous with friends and employees. Because of these things, I should feel entitled to some sort of boon, something in return for my better than average behavior on Earth.

Hell, I might imagine myself to be infallible and invest my money accordingly, since the world “owes me.”

Here’s the cold dose of realism.

There is no such thing as karma, chi or mystical being looking down on me, rewarding cookies for a job well done and bolts of lightening whenever I slap people with hot slices of pizza. It’s just me versus the world, in a giant rat race designed to kill me before the age of 80.

When it rains outside, it isn’t because you were acting like a real jerk. And when you got that promotion, it wasn’t because your charitable donations convinced the “karma Gods” that you were deserving.

The market is a bitch. It pushes and pushes until you capitulate, on both the long and short side. There’s a reason for that. Human emotions are not very complex and we all have a tipping point. For example, should you prod me with undesirable childhood nicknames– more than 5 times– the chances of me killing you rise exponentially. We’re all in a giant fish-tank, eating the same chum. Sometime soon, there will be a tipping point, either way up or way down.

Whichever way it goes, mind you, it will have nothing to do with your lack of deportment in public venues or the amount of money you donate to kids with cancer.

Hey everybody, this is Jeremy (iBC admin) filling in for Fly. As I’m sure you know, Mr. Le Fly is busy celebrating his birthday.

Anyway, the iBC game is coming along. I’ve hooked up some basic functionality on the front page of iBankCoin in the sidebar, detailing the $ (denominated in iBankCoin Reserve Notes) earned by everyone thus far (everyone that has signed up for an iBankCoin account and contributed posts/comments to the site since the announcement of the game, that is). The game is still in its infancy, but I would encourage people to start hoarding iBankCoin Reserve Notes immediately; as the game matures, you will find said notes to be indispensable in financing hostile takeovers against other players (yes, you will be able to victimize one another), purchase egregious in-game items — all sorts of fuckery. It should be quite the spectacle. At present you earn $ (iBC Reserve Notes) as follows:

+500 for a blog post
+100 for first comment on blog post
+25 for leaving a comment on a blog post
+$5 for each “thumbs up” to your comment
-$5 for each “thumbs down” to your comment
+$1 For each view of your post

(As an aside, iBankcoin crew get an addition $500 for each blog post, $250 for each news post. Also, there is an “arbitrary income” aspect whereby “The Fly” can impose fines for misconduct and “executive bonuses” at his discretion.)

One other thing to note is the hierarchy. It’s modeled after a typical investment banking totem pole, with MD on top, Sr. VPs below that, and trainees on the bottom. Naturally, the more money you have the higher up you are on the iBC totem pole. The “prisoner” section at the bottom is iBankCoin’s debtor prison, where those who have disgraced themselves are paraded as examples of great public shame.

Anyway, as always, feedback is welcomed and appreciated. The game is still in its infancy, so if you have an idea for the game (e.g., “I think players should be able to mug each other”) kindly let us know.

The market is acting stupid again. But I am not going to complain. As you know, today is my 36th birthday and I am running out of time on this here blog. The cut off age for reading iBankCoin is 47.5, so I need to enjoy the time I have left here.

I am not going to complain about how “stupid” the market is because markets are not stupid, just the people playing them. So, let’s think this through, shall we?

Is a Greek exit from the Euro imminent? Seriously, should we be worried about the election results in June and prepare for a real fucked up Mad Max scenario? Or, will the central banks, yet again, kick the can down the road. This distinction means everything.

Moreover, being that China’s growth has slowed dramatically (as intended by their policies), is the risk now betting against Chinese stimulus at a fresh high? Meaning: people have been shitting on China for years now. And, frankly, their growth has been less than impressive in recent months. Will the Chinese step in and cut rates and/or launch a stimulus missile?

If so, anything related to China will soar. Industrials and basic resource names should be accumulated now, in anticipation of that news.

I think everyone is too bearish. I also think too many people are expecting a full fledged rout of the euro. Whenever things seem obvious, shit happens and the once obvious becomes absurd, shortly after the fact.

For now, I am holding onto my longs and will be looking at basic resource names, anticipating the Chinese to step in one of these weekends with surprise clawhammers to the faces of those betting against it.

NOTE: With natural gas under $4, coal is in the “do not buy zone” thanks to displacement. I would not touch debt laden coal names until natty spikes.