QE3 Leak?

This market is trading like someone knows something (no mafia). Despite having 30% of my assets in cash and YELP flat, I am still up 1%. Gains in MTW, NXPI and NUAN are making  me very happy. However, everything that I sold yesterday is sharply higher, including CLF, which was a booked loss.

But that’s the business we are in: deal with the punches and never look back when a trade is closed. It’s easy to lament over meaningless shit; but how’s that supposed to make me money?

I am tempted to sell more ahead of the Fed meeting; but my greedy brain isn’t letting me relent on some of my favorite names.  Coincidentally, that same brain isn’t letting me buy more stocks ahead of Fed day. This is a do-nothing session, if you have ample cash reserves, as I do. On one hand, I don’t want to miss out on the panic buying to come, should QE3 become a reality. On the other, I don’t want to be too exposed to the fucking amateurs who will “sell the news” like dodo birds tomorrow. I am fairly certain a 30% cash position is enough to protect my downside.

For now, everything is in place for a stupid melt-up for the ages. Yields are elevated, but coming lower. The euro is cheap, but heading higher. And bonds are expensive, yet coming lower. Should the risk-on trade gain traction, in earnest, this market is going to move 10% higher over the next two months, equating to 20-30% moves up in a number of deeply oversold stocks.

Off to eat a sandwich.

We’ve already won the war.  The recent rally, if positioned correctly, should have made up the majority of your losses and/or made you a great deal of money. We’re now at a point where our own weapons risk blowing up on us, in reference to the Federal Reserve.

Make no mistake, the market is pricing in a 100% chance of QE3 tomorrow. If the market doesn’t get it, the gentle market you see today will turn savagely violent, turning this bullish tone into something a little more brazen, if you know what I mean.

You’ve already won. Do yourselves a favour and reduce risk.

My strategy is very simplistic, almost childlike: I am raising cash ahead of the Fed and will build a “go to” list of stocks to buy if the Fed initiates QE3. I do not mind paying up because QE3 means 20 straight weeks of uninterrupted winship.

Listen to me very quietly: if the Fed doesn’t do QE3, there will be zero reasons to own stocks for months. It will be viewed as a massive disappointment and mistake, leading pundits to prognosticate about the Fed being “behind the curve”,  helping to sour investor sentiment to the point of apathy.

There is no reason to get in front of this train.

I sold out of TDC, CLF, WFR, TNA and BZH, raising my cash levels to 30%. I did this to “lock-in” my victory. The truth is, if I didn’t lock it in and we dove lower after the Fed meeting on Wednesday, I’d have no choice but to eat my face off (no bath salts). I am not bearish on the market, only cautious.

My gains stand at around 14.5%, amidst smoke and rubble. My annual highs were about +20%. I believe a give back of just 5% is entirely acceptable for the “experience” I just endured. Nevertheless, I am still heavily concentrated in YELP, which poses a significant risk to my position should we trade lower. Also, my positions in CPST, NUAN, AVGO, NXPI and MTW are not exactly the conservative type.

On a separate note, I am glad to see AAPL above my basis. I believe it has regained its footing and will goose step to new highs.

As always, “The Fly” won, despite your ridiculous predictions of failure. SHAME ON YOU.

The Gods smile upon me and shit on you.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwky6LIL-_I&feature=player_embedded

You fuckers are getting blown the fuck out. In an odd twist of fate, the market has “reverse massage penis chopped” you and now the margin clerk is coming for your remains. That bitch will cover your shorts at 3:00 (wall st time) and mail out the proceeds of your bullshit accounts because it fell below the firm minimum.

You made a bet and lost, again. How many times must you learn this lesson?

You’re in the fucking hurt locker, getting shredded to pieces off bad news.

We’re at the point in this market when bad news is good news and good news cuts your dicks off.

Speaking of dick: how about Anothony Robbins bear call of Facebook 6 days ago? If you are unfamiliar, Robbins once made a series of videos in 2010, warning us all of the economic collapse to come, advising people to pull money out of stocks. Immediately following his stupid video, Ben Bernanke dropped his blunt ashes on Tony’s eyeballs and jacked the market, the fuck, higher.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFnCmq5ufeM

Well, 6 days ago, AT THE VERY BOTTOM OF $FB, Tony had this to say.

It was clear to me then that he had no idea how PE multiples worked, so I offered a pointer.

I knew then Facebook would bottom and have been saying so on Twitter. I found no need to buy anymore because I own plenty of YELP and a little ZNGA to boot. My point is not to besmirch Tony for being a retarded gorilla; but to laugh at him with ground shaking ferocity. The idea of a motivational speaker offering me financial advice is even funnier than reading some of your foolhardy comments.

Boom went your portfolio of shorts, in the Great Summer Squeeze of 2012.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwky6LIL-_I

I added to my $NUAN position.

If the Fed partakes in an unsterilized form of QE, the markets will trade higher for the next 20 weeks. Sure, there will be pit-stops and walls of worry to hurdle over; but rest assured, asset prices will respond to an expansion in the money supply.

Should Ben cave into the idiot hawks, the markets will plunge.

Any questions?

The only reason why we’re not lower today is because of this week’s Fed meeting. It looked real dicey this morning; but there’s a bid in the market.

Forget about what “The Fly” is doing and concentrate on what’s important to you. My threshold for risk and danger is much higher than most, as evidenced by my proclivities to speed race in cars made from dynamite sticks. I just swung a -3% deficit to a +13% boom in two weeks. That’s fucking nuts.

Granted, it is my god given right to luxury and winsip, by lightening or through pressing a single button on a computer keyboard: I shall have my wins and have it served to my liking.

I am dealing with a mixed bag this morning. But I do not fear the market at all. It is stupid, filled with base participants who know nothing about the world and how it works. Some of these amoebas come to iBC to offer me financial advice. So funny.

Bottom line: QE3 means we go in the black for the entirety of the summer and beyond. Failure to inject liquidity will result in the immediate collapse of equity prices into black space.

Well this officially sucks. Apparently, the market wanted more than a stupid election win. The G20 idiots needed to come up with a plan. Instead of enjoying great success and a cocaine gorilla rally, we get classic sell the news, paired with black smoke, ash, and metal trading action.

Spanish and Italian yields are higher, as well as TLT. Commodities are lower, as well as the euro. And, Europe gave back a huge rally, with our futures fucking itself from +10 to -5.

Now it’s not the end of the world, mind you. We had a terrific run last week and the original buttfuckers are still in the euro; but if yields in Italy and Spain don’t drop soon, there’s not gonna be a fucking euro to stay in.

Yields above 7% are unsustainable, meaning: the ECB needs to start buying bonds right now else the worst case scenario will play out.

Once again, I am floored by European impotence.

Bottom line: today could get very ugly; but I am holding firm because nothing has changed. The policy makers will intervene at some point. It’s not a question of if, but when.

My position, as always, is for the status quo to succeed in fucking the world until armed revolt kicks them out. You’re never going to supplant the power elite through the ballot box. The fix is in.

Having said that, unless “they” want the euro to collapse, I don’t see how the Greek elections will change anything. The conservative party will win and markets will love it.

But how do we trade it?

If you are short ahead of this news, expect to lose a great deal of money next week. The amount of Rick Santellis in this tape is amazing. Following last week’s melt up, their tiny portfolios are in a very fragile/weazened state. The shorts will capitulate, if we trend higher next week.

But I want to sell the news.

If we leg up next week, I want to be a seller ahead of the Fed meeting. If the euro is “saved”, there is a chance the Fed will do nothing, even though they’d be stupid not to. Nevertheless, if I can get my year to date gains to +15% or more, I’d be a fucking idiot not to take some profits and chill out for the rest of the summer.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q29YR5-t3gg

Ignore the pessimists; they are fucking idiots. You must discern the difference between someone who only understands pain and someone who is able to enjoy the fruits of life, offering objective, clear, and concise, opinions on the markets. There are cretins out there who’ve been wrong, very wrong, for 4 years in a row, branding themselves as “Wall Street 2.0.” These creatures of ignorance are very destitute, desperate to undo their wrongness through the misery of others.

These are very disturbed people.

What we offer you at iBankCoin, for good or for worse, is objectivity. I have been very bullish, only because I knew the market was being sold off for superfluous reasons. Through the pangs of being wrong and the felicity of winship, “The Fly” is generous with his wisdom and stock market skill, one that is unmatched, anywhere, in the entire universe–for the direct benefit of his readers.

I walked into the fire without protection and came out the other end fully robed, sandaled–with mustache still intact. With today’s 1.7% gains, my year to date returns stand at 11.5%. Barring a full fledged calamity on Sunday night, my prescient declarations of victory stand with authority.

It is my belief, as well as the opinions of my close circle of investors, that the market is about to enter a phase of panic buying. This week’s rally was child’s play, merely erasing the folly of the misguided. When the momentum shifts, the shorts clad in burlap will be naked and crying for execution. This may only be a brief respite before the hammer drops. Or, this can be the beginning of the “summer sizzling” of the bears, slowly braised, served with a side of bath salts.

I choose the latter.

My cash position is 7%.

UPDATE: Thanks to the late day run in YELP, my gains jumped to 3.5% for the day–pushing my gains to over 13% for the year.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1c3JNhB7mo

With some of the TEX proceeds, I bought NUAN and AVGO.