Relax, It’s Only Money

As you watch your net worth diminish with the stock quotes, always remember that somehow, someway, “The Fly” is winning. Trust me when I tell you, it will make me feel a lot better.

It’s October and you’re surprised that stocks are behaving odd, aren’t you? You’re just gonna have to endure the volatility until The Turkey Gods comes and spray gravy all over the faces of the bears, and mudstomp their faces into dust.

Stocks are selling off hard into the bell and my 1% intra-day gain has transformed (extra decepticon) into a 0.1% deficit. Oh, the horror, it’s almost too much to bear if it wasn’t for all this drama.

I said it yesterday and I’ll say it again: stocks will be higher in exactly 4 days from now. That being said, we might meander, or go down some more, prior to the big finale. But rest assured, as certain as the day is long and Senor Tropicana rules the roost, stocks will rise again (no confederacy).

Top pick: VHC

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdCpbTP1VIM&feature=plcp

If you find yourself worried about the earnings of a company that you own stock in, sell it. Do not rely upon the opinions of others. Make your own choices. That way you will never be disappointed, only right or wrong.

Every time the markets drop, a few of my investors get worried. They’re always rooting for the downside surprise, avid fans of “The Great Depression” to come. It’s almost as if they’re upset with their success and clamor failure. I tell these people to “shut the fuck up and let me worry about the money.”

I stopped accepting new business years ago, not because money or expanding my business is unimportant. Back in the old days, I’d accept new business from anyone, even my barber. But after years and years of doing this, on a very high professional level, I’ve come to realize money isn’t everything. Fuck the guy with $200k who wants to turn it into $10 million. I spit on your $200k.

This is not a market for the weak or the nervous or the people who can’t afford to lose. Everything is manipulated, from the top down. Therefore, it goes without saying, the stock market is a total sham. But we will play the sham, as best we can, for as long as we can. I find it much easier to focus on existing accounts, fixed on their money, than inviting new people, with their stupid personalities, into the fold.

Both DECK and FFIV are trading down ahead of their earnings. If that makes you nervous, sell. I might do the same.

At the present, I find myself to be blessed, yet again, with 20% of my assets long VHC. You can try to bet against me if you like. Hell, you can go out and buy some puts or even borrow some shares; but you’re not gonna win. Not a chance.

Will I stick around for the conclusion of their trial?

Maybe, maybe not. It depends on my situation and if I can afford to take risk.

Sometimes I make the mistake of offering ‘predictions’ on the internet–because that’s what you, the intelligent reader, wants to know. The truth is, predictions are for asshats. Life is fluid and so is the stock market.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJdXIg_LVmE

I tend to obsess over things, micro-manager extraordinaire. Last night I lamented over my stupid fucking broken Macbook Pro, because “it’s brand new” and “I was so careful with it.” Bad things happen to good people all the time, total randomness, unpredictable ‘black swan’ events. I know a person who owns a fairly large natural gas business in New Mexico. He is my age, making millions per annum. Fifteen years ago he was living in his car, destitute and without coin. Then the natural gas boom came and he got ‘rich as fuck.’

From 2002-2007, he bought 10 homes, mostly for rental income. He took the rest of his savings and put it in stocks. He entrusted me with a very small amount of money, reserving the lionshare of his $3 million for his own caprices. He started to buy some penny stock, not because he had an edge, but because it was going down. I promised him he’d go ‘back to the car’ if he continued his reckless investment philosophy. We’d talk for hours. I’d chastise him, continuously, for his behavior. With 5 kids, you’d think he’d treat his money more carefully.

The natural gas boom ended, with the collapse of prices. His account fell 100%, losing it all in a penny stock scam. One stock, one bullet, and his investment career died.

The market can provide you with an incredible amount of wealth– and by extension happiness. But it’s gambling. Don’t think it isn’t–because it is. Control your inhibitions and never ‘go back to the car.’

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQqK_vUHrZI

Top pick: VHC

I swapped out of APKT for even more VHC, making it my largest position, not because I know the judge and the lawyers and the contents inside of their brief cases, but because I do not intend to sit through a fucking APKT earnings call and because my urinal shadows have declared VHC to be “highly fucking attractive at these levels.”

Think of VHC as a large boat, captained by “The Devil” himself, and all of you are pirates. On the horizon there is a small flotilla, filled with bears eating cheese filled tortillas, playing the guitar, drunk from their own stupidity. Your vessel is magnanimous, painted black, adorned with 15 gunpowder filled cannons and a pirate flag to match.

As you approach the little flotilla, filled with tortilla eating bears, the captain of your pirate ship yells out “get ready to board, gentlemen; take what you want.”

That’s exactly how I feel about VHC right now, readying to board the flotilla strewn with cheese filled tortillas.

Happy trading.

I added to my VHC positions and sold out of APKT.

I’m down less than 1%, mostly thanks to VHC defying the laws of gravity.

I’ll say it again, this is a buyable dip.

Breadth has improved from 12 to 15% since the open. Inside of The PPT, the percent of large caps rated “buy” is at the lowest point in months–at around 6%. Each time the algos have hated stocks this much, mean reversion kicked in and the market has responded with ‘Cocaine Gorilla Rallies’ shortly thereafter.

My top pick is VHC for a very specific reason: earnings don’t matter with VHC, only the lawsuit. Should the suit go wrong, the stock will be cut in half. But that’s the risk I am willing to take for the potential of a 100% run from here.

I have a lot of other stocks in the portfolio, but do not have passion for them into earnings. Frankly, I am afraid to hold anything, after seeing multiple catastrophes in numerous high beta stocks this season.

In short, this is a very benign and mild decline, considering the tone. I am looking for the market to firm up into the bell, leading to a sharp snap back rally tomorrow.

Women will be required to polish their husbands shoes on a nightly basis, with marked exception to Sunday–the day of the Lord.

On the day of the Lord, women will be required to polish Gods shoes, by cleaning the floors of their local church.

Stocks will be considered to be “evil” and trading will be banned, especially for women and people who visit casinos.

A husband’s birthday will be a valid excuse to stay home from work and let the kids skip school.

Television broadcasts will end at 6pm, nightly, to make room for the evening sermon. There will be no normal programming on Sunday, except for the usual sermon.

Donations to The Church of Mormon will be mandatory, taken from your paychecks on a weekly basis.

Women will automatically make 10% less than men, UNDER MORMON RULE.

Luxury items will be frowned upon, favoring the ‘simple life’ of farm clothes and wooden clogs instead.

Women will not be permitted into bars, unless accompanied by their husband. If they are not married, they will not be permitted into bars.

Excuse notes by a husband will be considered ‘legal tender’ in the great state of Utah.

Children will be required to sing ‘the great mormon melodies’ during holidays, thoroughly trained by their mothers 6 months in advance.

Curfew for women will be 6pm, unless they have an excuse note from their husband. If they are not married, they must be home by 6pm.

Feel free to add your own in the comments.

You are not permitted to discuss politics anymore. Instead, we all get to “enjoy” the carnage of a classical ‘October Surprise’, whereby stocks get destroyed because they can. We’re set to drop by 150 this morning, following the fucked up pinless hand grenade action in Europe. Without a doubt, I stand to lose a spectacular amount of money this morning.

Also without doubt, this is a buyable dip. The market is simply following seasonal patterns. This market drought ends with the Turkey Gods splashing apple cider in the faces of the bears. If you have to stem the tide by selling, so be it. But have faith in knowing “The Turkey Gods” are coming and their powers are very real.

No one bets against stocks going into Turkey day. That’s madness.

Dips can be bought in basic resources. However, I am very worried about riding tech/retail into earnings season. As a matter of fact, just avoid earnings all together. It’s OTB guy gambling. Fuck that.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCAV6tonYh0

Obama CRUSHED Romney with one line zingers and insults. He was like an attack pit-bull, biting on another dog because he just finished eating dog food laden with gunpowder.

Romney was affable and soft, agreeing with Obama on many controversial points, like Syria.

But this debate wasn’t about making the other guy look like a jackass. It was about convincing the morons who are still undecided to vote for them.

In short, Obama was snarky and not very likable, speaking down to Romney in a very disrespectful tone. Romney played it safe and likely convinced MOAR people to vote for him, as a result.

The word has been spoken. Do not bother debating its merits.