A DANGEROUS GAME

My right hand men, ChessnWine and Ragin Cajun (happy b-day), nailed this move from the beginning, unlike me. They saw the news, got scared, obeyed their rules, and went to cash. The result: they can buy my margin liquidations, if I was unfortunate enough to have one.

My position right now is a very dangerous one: a game of chicken against the bond vigilantes, mathematics and reason, siding with the unknown hand behind the Treasury curtain. I know people like to believe it’s all about Ben and Tim, but it’s not. Those two ham and eggers are spokesmen for the US government and her interests, nothing more. Now if I was basing my positions solely on reason, mathematics and all of the other things, I’d be short stocks now.

After all, the writing is all over the wall, is it not? Deflation is sucking the life out of the global economy. High quality paper are hardly yielding anything. The US government, as fucked as it is, can borrow money for 10 years at less than 1.6%. How cool is that? The reason they are able to do that is because of bank runs. All of the money is fleeing weak balance sheets in favor of strong: German, Switzerland, Denmark, UK, even French.

What’s especially odd about this rout of Europe is the immunity of France. Last year French yields spiked because of their exposure to Italy. However, now, they are tanking. What’s changed? The only explanation: the market is trying to price in the collapse of the Euro, meaning France will not bail out anyone. We might be entering the end game in Europe, providing policy makers do nothing.

Should they do nothing?

Under a do nothing scenario, stocks will crash. Economies will grind to a halt and life as you know it will change. I am fairly certain, under a full retard scenario, the markets will close, possibly for months until shit gets figured out. They’d have to do this in order to avoid bank runs.

My advice to you: keep the majority of your net worth out of the market. It’s okay to play with stocks, since we all like to gamble. But it won’t be funny if your net worth gets halted for trading for 6 months, while you starve to death in your fucking Mcmansion. This advice applies to short sellers too. Your fantastic tailwinds will be kept away from your purse, if the markets go on holiday.

I’ve always kept ample amounts of money and coin in my personal safes, one at home, two others in safe deposit boxes. Also, be sure to keep a few months worth of food in your fucking garage, and a loaded pistol under your bed to fend off the zombie hordes.

Don’t laugh at the shit I am telling you now: be very afraid, fuck face, for the end of times is no joke.

In short, this is all tracking in accordance to the Mayan calendar, in the strictest of ways. Now that you know how the story will end, prepare for it.

BEND THE KNEE!!

The above chart is fuckery at its finest

Short terms yields in Denmark and Switzerland are NEGATIVE, meaning you have to pay them for the right to lend them money. American yields are at record lows and the Eurozone is undergoing one giant bank run.

The markets do not reflect the severity of the situation.

This is as bad as it gets. The markets are tame because people believe QE3 or some bailout is around the corner. If we do not get either, bear with me as I prepare this next sentence: WE ARE GOING DOWN 5,000 DOW POINTS IN SHORT ORDER.

Rumors that Greece cannot secure credit to buy oil, are running rampant, and have been forced to secure it from large European corporations, with onerous conditions. Spanish and Italian credit is in danger too, which is why oil is tanking so hard. See, boys and girls, that’s what deflation does. Credit is non-existant and money becomes scarce. Food, oil and basic materials will not be delivered. Your local grocery store will not have food on the shelves, unless the government steps in and provides credit.

You’re all so frightened of Bernanke and his dastardly printing presses. Well, small pleb, prepare for death by famine if this shit is allowed to unravel.

NOTE: The James Gorman, CEO OF MARGIN STANLEY, interview on CNBC was a crock of shit and pretentious. He called Facebook ipo buyers “naive” if they thought they’d make money on day 1. What a fucking asshat.

http://youtu.be/XIFbsCxTiME

Holy shit I feel like capitulating today. Everything looks terrible, even The Facebook. Stocks are knifing lower, much more than marginal declines in the Dow and SPY. I am getting 5-8% declines in some of my fucking “China-centric” plays. Couple that with the fact that TLT is going to $200, as predicted, I feel incredibly horrible today.

Why do I feel terrible?

Go look at my 2012 predictions.

I’ve been sucked into this shit, likely caused by some chemical imbalance in my brain. The way stocks are trading today, we can fall 200-300 in a single session. We haven’t seen that type of splendor yet; but it’s coming. At the same time, I know when I can’t take it anymore, historically, the market is near a bottom. The PPT hasn’t flashed an OVERSOLD signal all fucking year. It’s just riding the market lower, calmly, with top hat in hand. But today’s trading action might be the tipping point.

I need to hold onto my positions, especially when they begin to melt my fucking face. As you can tell, I am trying to justify holding onto dog-shit.

Fuck the Facebook and fuck Margin Stanley. Fuck the economy, Europe and fuck Obama. I want to see everything burn and never to rebuilt again. I want the market in ashes, even if it wipes out my net worth, which is impossible since 70% of my money is in the bank. I suppose the banks could close and tell me to fish for soup at some government orphanage. Who knows what the market will bring?

One thing is for certain, and I am confident on this point, the market is going to rally when you least expect it. Many will be out of the market, hedged or light. Very few will capture the full move and it will be the biggest one day rally of the year.

Until then, enjoy the never-ending spiral lower.

Aside from old man stocks, airlines have been taking the fuck off in this bullshit tape, thanks to the drop in oil. However, what the ‘tards who are buying DAL, LCC and others don’t realize is the fact that jet fuel cracks are still fucking onerous. Nonetheless, the perception is bullish for flying buses. Therefore, the stocks are climbing.

Here is a full list of the current safe havens.

Since when is fucking Dean Foods a safe haven stock? You know, this is the sort of bullshit that makes me seethe with contempt. All of a sudden, the superannuated portion of society is hiding out in flying buses and Dean Fucking Foods? Fuck that shit. Oh, let’s not forget, everyone loves to eat at piece of shit restaurants like JACK and BOBE.

Put aside the “safe havens” for a moment and you will see CIEN up in pre-market trading. This is very significant for the networkers. This industry has been tossed in the Blendtec and set on high. Holders of stocks like CIEN, FNSR, JDSU, FFIV, RVBD and ARUN are inured to this rakish tape by now, fully cognizant of God’s hatred for them. However, these CIEN numbers tell a different story. Look for the short sellers to cover in CIEN and possibly others.

The euro is marginally higher; but nothing matters until the Greek elections are out of the way. Although I want to believe in miracles and magical men with beards bestowing gifts upon my doorstep, the profligacy of Europe will likely  feed  the ravenous bearshitters in the near term, fucking me during the month of June almost as bad as May.

Fuck with me today and I will track you down and murder you.

Have a nice day 🙂

All of you shit talkers, proclaiming doom and disaster in the markets, are without coin. You are small plebs, midgets in finance, vagrants of society. How do I know this?

Well, for one, the market has gone straight up since 2009. There aren’t many professional short sellers to begin with. Just guys like you, who come and go, has-beens in the real and virtual world. You might enjoy a few good months, here or there; but in the end, you will lose your heads. It will come as a fantastic surprise. You might be long FAZ calls and TZA on margin into the weekend. Come Sunday evening, futures might be down 20 on some bad news.

You might even go to sleep dreaming of the coin to be had. Visions of grandeur and accomplishment will flood your thoughts. Instead of wearing Chinese man delivery shirts, you might be able to afford 250 stitch count suits that hardly feel like table cloths.

Then BAM! The news will come and you will be frightened from it. At first, you will be in deep denial, proclaiming the central bank plan to be “absurd” or “stupid.” You will tell others that “all this does it kick the can down the road.” But deep down, you will know what will come next.

The executioner will come to your house and cut your fucking brains out from your head. The market will rip higher by more than 500 in a single session; and it will happen on an options expiration day to boot–just to fuck you a little bit harder.

Enjoy the Spring and keep some money tucked aside for a rainy day. On the beard of Rick Ross and all that is good in this world, the news is coming.

The 2008 crisis is nothing compared to what we are seeing now. The 10 yr yields are less than the dividend yield of the S&P 500. The TLT is north of 126 and the entirety of the European financial system is on the precipice of ruins. You’re not feeling it appropriately because US banks are doing well and our economy is plodding along with elegance.

But it’s grim out there.

Investors are brooding over the current scenario because the math doesn’t work. The Germans are more frightened of hyper-inflation than the reality of now, which is MASSIVE deflation on a monumental scale. For those of you keenly fixed on inflation, proclaiming the dollar to be worth less than toilet paper: you Sir are an ass. Inflation was never the issue. It was parlour tricks at play, making you believe we were reflating, giving the feeling of growth and prosperity.

The truth of the matter is, we never recovered from the 2008 melt down and now find ourselves in a very bad position, having our fate tethered to the original butt-fuckers in Europe.

ATTENTION Federal Reserve: We are now deeply inside of the Deflationary Vortex. Everyone is doing “The Hugh Hendry” and equity multiples will continue to compress until someone does something about it. Yes, I am asking for QE, not for the sake of my portfolios, which are superficial in nature, but for the benefit of mankind.

Facebook is hitting new lows again. Clearly, their CEO, Mark Fuckerberg, was not ready to be “Pearl Harbored” like this. Nonetheless, he needs to make a statement, say something, else his stupid stock is going to continue to “inverse QE” America. As for Margin Stanley, someone should be fired for this. This was no ordinary IPO. This was the fucking Facebook IPO and now everyone is laughing at us (please, tell them to stop laughing at us!!!).

The CEO of Margin should be fired. The head of the syndicate should be fired, alongside a dozen others. It is unbelievable to me that the board of MS is just letting this go by, as if it was a small trading error.

Pssst, come close to the screen; I want to tell you a little secret:

THE FUCKING FACECROOK HAS LOST OVER 25% OF ITS MARKET CAP IN A SINGLE WEEK!!!!

You cocksuckers at Margarine Stanley are complicit in the unraveling of an entire industry. You’ve injured me directly with YELP turning into ashes, post ipo. Who would have guessed it, aside from all of the haters.

The problem with haters is they hate too much. It’s like the boy who cried wolf. No one believes you because you complain too much.

At any rate, the market is a buy down here because the alternative is too grim, too burdensome on the working class. Let there be light now — or 100 years of uninterrupted darkness. (As you know, the night is dark and full of terrors.)

You’re all a bunch of pussies. What’s to worry about? Are you scared Greece will leave the EU and cause a domino effect in Europe, shattering every single bank to little pieces? PFFFFFF. You know that shit won’t happen. You also know “The Fuckbook” just lost $40 billion in market cap over the past week. There can no longer be a discussion, asking whether Margin Stanley is being guided by criminal elements. More than that, it’s the VC’s who are to blame, the butt-fuckers who kept upping the valuation of FB in the private markets, through ponzi scheme financings, knowing they’d one day get liquid on unsuspecting sanitation workers at E-trade.

Accel Partners (assholes)
Digital Sky Technologies (Moscow based bucket shop)
Peter Thiel (this fucker is King Ponzi, investor in all social media bubbles)

The above assholes are just three of many assholes who helped rape the US investor, via INVERSE QE, slapping “The Fuckbook” across the faces of school teachers at E-trade at an outrageous 26x sales (102 BILLION mkt cap).

Moving on: Italy had a bad bond auction, mainly because people would rather piss on them than put them in their safe. US and German yields are hitting record levels. For us, this is fantastic. We can spend all of the fucking money we want because it’s practically free.

I am going to condense everything for you in a few thoughts. Europe is not allowed to fail. There is no such thing as whole continents failing. Moreover, policy makers are keenly aware of the issues and are waiting for the right time to melt off the faces of those who are betting against them. Look what they’ve accomplished in recent weeks: commodity prices have plunged and demand for US, UK, German and French bonds are at record highs. Very soon, they will flip the switch and bail everyone out with some sort of Euro-bond guarantee. When it happens, everything will go up. And, don’t forget about the Chinese. Those clever fuckers will punch faces and dicks off until their economy grows at 10% again.

Until then, I sit in the dark eating sandwiches with savage nobility.

http://youtu.be/t4A29uG0KBc

Eventually, all of this planning that I am doing is going to pay off in spades. Like I said yesterday: there is 1 more epic trade to be had until September and I intend to nail it.

This morning I sold out of EXK, only because I had to. I was up about 7% in the position and it was a 10% holding. The only problem: my other silver position, AG, was also a 10% holding and I was flat on it. So I took profits on EXK and reallocated about half of the cash into CLF and accumulated more NXPI and MTW–both legacy positions of mine.

My intention is to capture the full body of this move, if we are to get one. Providing we get one, I am fairly certain anything related to China will power forward. This means industrials, basic resources and even burritos. Keep in mind, the Chinese H shares are the cheapest stocks in the world, now trading just 6x next years earnings, AS AN INDEX. Compare that to our 12-14x, you can see how bearish people are on China.

For the moment, everything I do will trade around my YELP and CPST positions. All stocks can be sold, except those, and will be sold when the appropriate level of profit presents itself.

Here is my short list of “China-centric” names that I am keenly focused on, some procured from the hallowed halls of The PPT, others from my various spies on Wall Street.

YZC
HUN
MT
MTL
MTW
TEX
KOR
FCX
CLF
TCK
BHP

If we get a move in the market, the above stocks will serve me well. If the market fails, those fuckers are going down double digits. It’s high stakes investing out there, player, not for the faint of heart. Watch the euro/dollar cross and how Australia trades tonight. I am also looking for more rumors of Greek bailouts and favorable polling data–pointing to victory for the bailout fuckers.

In the end, “The Fly” wins. All of this shit you see here is simply drama for the unwashed, keep those fuckers interested like this shit was a soap opera.

I edged higher by 0.7%, despite having a fucking sinkhole heavily overweighted in my portfolios. As it stands now, YELP represents just 20% of my assets, thanks to all of that awesome depreciation. Thank the heavens for my other stocks, like TEX, EXK, MTW and NXPI, carrying the water for my YELP.

Naturally, the social media sector is being compressed, all thanks to the purposeful and criminal elements inside of the once great firm “Margin Stanley” (h/t:ZH).

The sniveling bastards at MS are the reason why my YELP is going lower. Nothing about YELP matters right now, but the valuation comparison to FB. As the FUCKBOOK valuation drops, so do its peers. I hope the spastic retards at MS (pun intended!) enjoy the 1.1% fee they received for doing the FB deal. Oh, what a splendid job they did too, inviting a bunch of flippers into the deal, fucking it from day 1 because their valuation metrics were off kilter.

See, Margin Stanley is a microcosm of what is wrong with present day America. One day, MS will go bankrupt or delve into oblivion forever. How do I know this? The fucking writing is all over the FUCKBOOK wall (another pun, and yes it was intended!). At this stage, all I can do it make up my YELP losses elsewhere and wait for the company to prove itself, independent from the leviathan that is FB.

With regards to the market: standard bounce, nothing too grande. Let’s see what tomorrow brings before we get excited.

BONUS: Chart Art.