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Banking on Time-of-Day 02:30pm EST market action: My take -> continuation of rally

The market took a nap during the day after the morning rush.  Now it is waking up and my take is that it will want to run up some more.

Get ready for some choo-choo train on the upside.

Or will I be wrong again?

All eyes is looking for SPY to take out the 135.54 high of the day.

Yeap, got some day trade position banking on this late day breakout move.

Good Hunting!

ps. BTW, I also added to my equity today since this morning.

Now, my position is:

37% 33% stocks (DDD SZYM SSYS THLD AUY WPRT REMX TQNT)

10% long-term equity

53% 57% cash

Below shows the after-effect.  Needless to say, I banked all profits on my daytrade.

Just another day of catching the market lead among days of tripping over…

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FEASTING at the GATE!

You see, instead of a GAP UP that leave you kicking yourself for not buying (more) yesterday, we were giving the gift of soft opening to jump in.

Not for one to miss the gift in plan sight, I started buying my favorites.

This morning, I bought and added the following:

SZYM  DDD  SSYS  AUY  THLD  WPRT  REMX

I dumped EXK since it was the only non-performance stock in the morning.

Due to the potential corn crop situation highlighted by The Fly, I can see renewed interesting in Bio-food such as SZYM.  Hence the 2nd largest position size in my portfolio.  My largest position size is, of course, my long-term portfolio.

Now that I got my fill, I’ll monitor the trend for the rest of the day.  I may add or reduce positions based on direction of the trend going forward.  Meanwhile, I’ll be daytrading here and there for some profit which I will not be posting here.

Current position:

31% (see stock list above)
10% long-term equity
59% cash

Good Hunting!

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Is this the reluctant bear or a stubborn bull?

With an impressive run-up from the bottom once again, I’ve to say the bull is putting up a good fight against the bear.  Every push down was being responded with a push up.  However, despite the push up by end of day, each day still ended down.   BUT it was only a small step down; so the bull earned an applause from me.

To show my sincere appreciation of the bull effort, I ventured into some bargain hunting of the 3rd kind!  I bought back the 3rd generation stocks (technology for our future) I sold in the past.  Now, I’m the happy owner of the following (in order of position size):

SSYS   SZYM  DDD  WPRT   and The Fly’s favorite silver mining stock EXK.

All my shorts were sold this morning due to the  impressive run-up of price actions and I was lucky to gain a small profit from this campaign.  It was fun until the choo-choo train kept on detouring to many hillsides.

Below is the 15 minutes SPY chart.  You can see which way the train was going all day…

Below is the daily chart.  Notice that today is 6th day of this down move.  Could an up day be due tomorrow? Who know.  However, the fact that today close is below the 79sma and 89xma doesn’t sit well with me…

Below is the weekly chart.  This chart along tell me the bear is still in charge and caution must be doubled if you are still long.  HOWEVER, notice that the low for this week bar touched the trendline from June 8th to June 29th and then bounced right back up.  If tomorrow price action failed to pierce this trendline, I think I’m safe with the stocks I bought today.

Current position:

10% long-term equity

19% (see stocks I listed above)

71% cash

Good Hunting!

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After a small detour at the hillside; the South bound train continues onward… down

This morning, even I got off the train for a brief moment on the hillside.  But after seeing some more passengers getting on to the South bound train; I decided to hop back in.

As the South bound train took off around 02:00pm EST; the scenery was so breath-taking I decided to upgrade my seat to business class to get a better view.  If I can see the ocean later, I may even upgrade to luxury class!

I’m currently back to 21% in my short position (bought SH, TZA, and SKF).

Below 15 minutes chart showed the morning detour of the South bound train and how it got back on track later on.

Below is the 15m, daily, and weekly SPY charts:

Daily SPY chart below:

Weekly SPY chart below:

As I’m typing this post, I can see some “correction” to the upside and this is to be expected after a big swing down at 02:00pm.  However, I’ll be watching closely for any late day rally that may put my position on defensive ground.  If the correction persists, I’ll of course reduce short position accordingly.

Good Hunting!

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The South Bound train has departed and the ticket price has gone up.

Look like we may have a replay of 2011 July & August if the current price actions continues its momentum.

Below is the path the train is following…

15m SPY chart:

Daily SPY chart:

Weekly SPY chart:

Current position:

20% short (bought SH, SKF, & TZA)

10% long-term equity

70% cash

Good Hunting!

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Ticket to Southland is on sale!

For some reason, after watching price action this morning, I feel an urge to buy a ticket to visit the Southland.  I sold all my THLD for breakeven and began my short campaign by buying SH, TZA, and SKF.

Currently, 11% long-term equity; 11% short position.  From here, I will continue to add to my short if price actions demand it.  Of course, stops are in place in case I’m wrong (again?).

Below is the charts that inspired me to visit the Southland:

15 minutes SPY chart below:

Below is the SPY weekly chart:

Good Hunting!

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Is the A-B-C correction over?

Below is the daily SPY chart.

Notice I marked the Elliott’s 5 Wave patterns on the downtrend starting from the top at April 2nd, 2012 and ended on June 4th, 2012.  From there on, I also marked the A-B-C correction to the upside.  Friday down bar “potentially” creates a temporary “top” for wave C at $137.80.  However, Wave B ($130.85) has to be taken out before we can validate Wave C is complete.

Looking at the weekly SPY chart below, wave B ($130.85) from the daily chart happened to be the low of big green bar 2 weeks ago.  In a way, $130.85 is a price point to keep an eye on.

Meanwhile, notice that in 2011, the week ended July 8 showed a small range bar (see little down arrow pointing to the price bar inside the red box) right after the big green bad ass bar from the week before.  Now, look at last week bar ended July 6th.  It also showed a small range bar; but this time it is a little red weekly bar.  If history is to repeat, we may have a down week coming up.  Adding to the probability of downside bias, it doesn’t help that last week small range red bar closed below the 61.8% Fib retracement resistance at 136.45.

In summary, in my opinion, caution is warranted in the coming week.

Since I’m 85% cash currently, I believe I’m cautious enough.

Good Hunting!

ps. btw, the Elliott Wave patterns are my own personal interpretation only; therefore, feel free to disagree.

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The weekly SPY chart still does not look good (updated)

Here is what the weekly SPY chart looks like right now:

The late rally from the low isn’t helping much.  Even if SPY rallies all the way back to 136.40; we will have the dreadful Doji bar against the 61.8% Fib retracement.  Either way, I’m taking my 85% cash with me over the weekend.

Oh yeah, I bought back half of THLD I sold this morning.  The chart looks so strong I can’t help but feel that it will go much higher next week.  I still have my TZA starter position but my SKF was stopped out.

Notice the last red bar is now below the 61.8% retracement of April 6th high and June 8th low.  This can only validate the resistance power of the Fib 61.8%.  If we have a red candlestick bar by end of the day (which mean a red weekly bar), there is a high probability the price actions will roll off to the downside.

Hence, I’m mostly out of my equity position:

Long-term equity: 11%

THLD: 3%

TZA: 1%

Cash: 85%

Good Hunting!

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Are we reaching the Threshold for maximum gain?

Threshold Pharmaceuticals!  That is what I’m talking about.

I like the weekly and the daily charts for THLD.  Just by looking at the charts, I can “hear” the price actions screaming “I WANNA GO UP!”  So, to calm the voice in my head, I added THLD twice today.

Oh no, this is not a recommendation or suggestion to buy THLD.  Besides, you must be crazy to buy a stock pick from someone who claimed to hear “voice” about price actions.

Below is the daily THLD chart:

Below is the Weekly THLD chart:

Good Hunting!

ps. I forgot to mention that I like the fact that THLD made new high today.  Yeap, a new high for the last 60+ trading days.  Thus, this could be a trigger for long-term trend players to get in.  Watch out if price actions take out the March 30, 2012 high of $9.07.

Current equity holdings  (27%):

(Order: large to small) PRLB; THLD; USU; USEG; LMLP; DNN; HDSN;

Long-term portfolio (11%);

Cash (62%)

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Mid-week SPY weekly chart analysis- So far so good!

Hope you all have a Happy July 4th!

So far, Monday & Tuesday gave us a good positive price action by mean of having a nice green bar that closed on top of that 61.8% retracement.  I like to see Thursday and Friday’s price action to maintain this green weekly bar or at least close above the SPY price of $136.45.  However, I will prefer that we don’t ended the week with a Doji bar that close near $136.45.  It is my experience that a Doji bar near any Fib retracement carry a higher probability of a correction to current trend.  So, let’s see how the rest of the week play out.

Currently, I’m heavily weighted on PRLB since I doubled-down on the price run-up on Tuesday.  Remember, I only averaged up.   I’m sitting on some nice profit but will have no hesitation to dump it for profit if price action begin to have 2nd thought on the uptrend.  Nevertheless, price action looked positive for PRLB and the odd is that the momentum may continue.

I also doubled-down on THLD on Tuesday because of a breakout pattern I saw on the chart.  See below THLD daily chart.

I’m disappointed to see HDSN not only failed to breakout of the high of May 10th; but ended Tuesday with a bearish engulfment bar.  I will continue to reduce my position if price continues to head lower.

Currently 44% equity and 56% cash.

Good Hunting!

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