Bears, the Nasdaq is gearing up for a 200 point move. The SPY has 7 points of likely upside, while the Dow Jones is fixin’ to climb 600.
Sure, downside exposure is probably greater than upside profit. However, each trader has a different squeal point. It is likely that most of the squeal points will be hit, just as the rally has reached its apex. The confluence of these traders (shorts) covering and buyers buying may push the indexes past my targets as the markets capitalize on erroneous psychology.
The worst case scenario for the bears is that the indexes pass the February highs. If they do, every lemming with an idiot box and an internet connection will be hearing and reading about a double bottom. Nothing sucks in the retail schmuck and 401K’er like a compelling story smuggled inside a technical chart pattern. Look out bears. I believe a double bottom will bring in money from the sidelines.
Just like every star that hides on the back of his tour bus is just waiting for his cover to be blown (references to alt. country rockers Uncle Tupelo), the bulls are cautiously making bets in the face of headline risk. I told you explicitly several weeks ago that bad news will be good news. What the bears need to watch for is a change of this sentiment. When bad news begins to be treated as bad news, it will likely represent an intermediate turning point.
You all know how extensively I use RSI(2). Dogwood posted some backtesting on using RSI(2) to swing trade QLD and QID. Read it here.
“MARKET SET TO RALLY, UNTIL THE GOATS COME HOME”
“WE WILL RIP THE HEADS OFF OF ASSHOLE SELLERS”
“SHORTS ABOUT TO GET THEIR EYES SCRATCHED OUT”
lol…
MARKETS GOING BIG TITS
BUY STOCKS, FUCK A GOAT, BUY MORE STOCKS
Woody,
I liked this entire post except for the use of the word, “fixin.”
Makes me like my SMN and DUG less though…
-DT
wood,
if the dow takes out the feb highs, which of course as you know, i think it will, the actual measured move out of this formation is 13.9k +
DT- I can’t stand almost every word in a Yankee vocabulary. Remind me to come over to your blog and write about it…
Chivas, I don’t calculate measured moves, and have a hard time believing the Dow will move that high. However, anything is possible. I still say the indexes finish negative for 2008.
Wait, DT, you were giving me a compliment, for the most part. Thanks!
Being a Met fan, I can tell you I hate Yankees too.
As for Chivas:
You are no longer welcome here, with that bullshit.
I dare you to say 13,900 again. As a matter of fact, I dare you to even think about it.
God forbid you should suggest 14,000, I may have to kill your tomato plants.
i meant to say 10,900
lol @ chivas…
Don’t listen to Chivas, he had a buncha scotches at his place last night and started channeling Desi Arnez.
I agree with your targets however I think the bulls will be tested right here, right now. If not, you will be correct sooner than later.
I’m thinking those little uptrends lines will be broken to the downside, today, before your upside resistance lines are attacked and broken to the upside in search of target X.
Everyone still soooooo antsy to turn bullish… makes me sad.
The little indicators I have patched together with scotch tape and chewing gum are telling me that we’re looking at a final gain of less than yesterdays silly 54 points.
Word of today: Bear
Fly wins again.
You’ll probably have to draw new support lines for your thesis after today.Does the I bank coin store sell rulers?
GE came out with super numbers today
Patience, bears, patience.
As I stated, lets see how the markets respond to this negative news. So far, I see the futures down a good amount.
Lets see if the gap down is bought throughout the day, as they have been for the past couple of month.
Wood:
As I said before ck Bulkowskis Blg Cart 4/1/08 DJ30 chart. It is also called the pattern site.
Porked sideways, you are.
BPOE:
A link, howabout?
Mind, never.
Found it, I have.
you spelled bullshit wrong… you need to add a “t” in there, and quit being dyslexic.
it’s gonna at least hit the 50 MA before it bounces up… I’m seeing a longer term trendline from late October down
Tasty, those escalator steps are?
Hmmm.
Lol…
Alright boss, I’ll give you today.
What is the significance of those lower squiggly indicator things in your voodoo-inspired world? Looking at the volume and the other two squiggly things at the bottom of the SPY would make me think the opposite of what you predicted… do you not consider those things?
“Insert your Bullshit Headlines,” your last header should’ve been.
Yo Wood, after reading your post here and Dogwood’s post about the RSI(2), I was intrigued enough to do some backtesting of my own on StockFetcher. Check out the post here:
http://analystpennings.blogspot.com/
And see the results of the backtesting here:
http://eckammeyer.googlepages.com/ultrashort_index_only_etf_stockfetcher_b
Let me know what you think.
Ed