The short setups from last night’s post worked out great (MCP, TZOO), while my long ideas got murk’d in afternoon trading. This just goes to show you the easy money is still be made on the short side. Copper told the whole story today and must be monitored daily to get a gauge on market direction.
Now, we all await the clam, and I have a neutral stance of the market here, one short for every long. No one knows the outcome of the meeting, so stop giving probabilities, only juveniles do that.
If the inflation trade is back on the table after the clam speaks, I will look to buy $EOG, and names alike, as it sits on 2yr support. Stop under $84:
However, should we enter a deflationary vortex after the Clam, look no further than shorting the entire energy and Basic materials space. Here are a few names worth eying for breakdowns.
$WNR – Dangerous looking chart, I may look to buy puts for a breakdown trade:
$CHK – Watch for a breakdown below the 200 day moving average, currently at 30.37:
$WTI – Watch for a breakdown on weakness in the oil patch:
$ATW – Same thing applies here, watch for a breakdown with weakness in the oil patch:
$PTEN – Watch for a breakdown below 21.25:
If you prefer not to short stocks, you can always join me in $ERY, Direxion’s 3x energy bear ETF:
Great call on MCP RC … as usual, indeud!
Nice post!
adding to the “next day” concerns is this TradeTimer setup that triggered today.
http://chart.ly/l2xixee
Next day returns are up 1% or down 3.6%, that is huge, rarely does a setup trigger such next day violence (on average).
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the other thing I want to see is if this holds true again
–> http://spydercrusher.com/2011/08/31/the-superior-genius-of-options-players/
We should be right near an important pivot, higher or lower
And lastly, if I recall, isn’t there a tendency for the initial fed move to be reserved in a few days? Unscientific I know, but…
“reserved” = reversed
Thx RC.
Appreciate the followup from Danny, too.
killin’ it with these ideas, RC.
so, if there’s massive qe3 (ie inflation), then you are a buyer of these energy names?
EOG is my fav, yes.
Also whats the downside price target of that pattern in WNR?
$12
(laughter) glad we’re of like mind about this. No sense playing “bet your fingers” on something like a speech from the Fed.
RC,
Have you already sold MELI or are you sticking with it through today?
Thanks.
Hey RC, major kudos and thanks for the ERY.
Boom!