iBankCoin
Joined Jan 27, 2008
7,405 Blog Posts

The Fly Saves Me

The other day I shoot Fly an email asking him for his best short idea. He responds, without hesitation, [[CHL]]. The next day I immediately start buying puts.

I still own those same puts for a nice percentage gain, and today it was my biggest winner. I still ended the day lower thanks to a few bad trades, but CHL helped me stay afloat.

Note: Post your top short ideas in the comment section, charts up later tonight.

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31 comments

  1. Hattery

    Not a short, but MOS breaking out

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  2. Hattery

    VLO to new lows, GLNG cracked 17, but I’m at work so I can’t get many picks and I haven’t really looked those over too much.

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  3. BeWater

    How about that BOOM? Still has a ways to go seems like. Of course, i’m still holding my puts.

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  4. Jakegint

    FSLR just “kissed” its 23.6% retrace fib from the underside, which, given its recent weakness, should indicate further plummatage. I’d look for a second kiss tomorrow, or even a quick penetration, and then resume downward action.

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  5. Gunners

    three possible “P” shorts… thoughts? PRXL, PWRD, PFG,

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  6. Sia

    FSLR, JASO, PCLN, long DUG

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  7. Q4

    Jake:

    Noticed you use Fib lines alot, i do as well. Do you utilize Gann at all?

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  8. Jakegint

    Q4 — I am not yet “Gann Proficient.” I have heard good things, however.

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  9. Q4

    USO long. I wish I could of played the put options on DUG, but I don’t like the spreads. Obviously, a contrarian play with “inventories” out tomorrow morning.

    See you on the field.

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  10. boca

    Top short pick is LDK Solar, for a short term trade.

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  11. Woodshedder

    Top short pick is FXP. Seriously.

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  12. boca

    Shed, based on a technical signal, or Tim Seymour top-ticking it by recommending it on Fast Money?

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  13. Hattery

    HCCI recent IPO making a head and shoulders should be good in the next few days for a short

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  14. Employee8

    COF (44) getting on elevator to thirty and JPM (38) has found some ugly stuff hiding in BSC … If 35 doesn’t hold then it’s the elevator to 25!

    FWIW: Zacks issued a buy on TGI on 6/3 saying it’s in the sweet spot for new aircraft and M&R of older stuff yet it’s tanked and hitting long term support around 52 which I think is a Fib pullback of 62% … is it a buy here or you see more downside (LT potential)?

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  15. Hattery

    Shed, regarding FXP, what is it overbought? did it pass your RSI screen as a sell?

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  16. The Fly

    Wood is drinking the same liquid heroin that Ducati is drinking.

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  17. blowhard

    ENER look at that chart, been a f’d up company for a long time, it wont be the next FSLR. 10 pts within the next 3 weekds. when the retards of a sector rally that hard, short em (still holding my CSIQ and SOLF puts and they are just as bad of companies)

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  18. Woodshedder

    Let me put it this way. RSI(2) works well on the short side as well.

    Also, pull up all the Asia ETFs. The continent is due for a bounce.

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  19. Cajun

    Blowhard, That’s the 4th or 5th time you’ve mentioned ENER short. I’m buying puts tomorrow, if I lose money I’m coming after you.

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  20. ottnott

    I agree with blowhard, and I’ve been watching ENER off and on since the late 1980s. [edit – I’m not making a short-term price prediction or anything useful like that]

    The risk with ENER is not just the current solar bubble (PV power will be huge some day, but not yet), but also that the window of opportunity for its technology will not last much longer.

    ENER has done really great things with a really lame PV technology – amorphous silicon thin films. Of course, they’ve been at it for decades and have burned through mucho shareholder cash.

    Their products have great engineering, but are handicapped by the low efficiency of a-Si. You can make up for low electricity output in part by having a low module cost and low installation cost, but ENER is slowly falling behind the times. They’ve had those relative advantages for many years, but haven’t taken off.

    I blame both their technology successes and their approaching technology obsolescence on their founder, Stanford Ovshinsky. He was such a strong force at the company for so many years that ENER could never explore other PV technologies. He was a great man, but he kept too much under his thumb, IMO.

    None of my issues with the company will have an impact in the timeframe of a trader, unfortunately.

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  21. Danny

    I shorted ENER from 31-27 years ago. It had terrible fundamentals then and I assume now.

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  22. Boston

    What do you guys think of CPST. They report on the 12th, Im waiting for the report to buy (or not.

    Long or dont touch it?

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  23. Working Man

    RC and Fellas

    Looked at ENER and COF. COF looks like a nice bear flag. But I’m struggling to see the pattern with ENER, which doesn’t mean it’s not a good put play — I’m just not seeing the lines on it. Maybe a head and shoulder if I force it – but I hate forcing it. Anyway, agree with the macro thesis on its fall – just struggling to map it out.

    Looking forward to RC’s short ideas.

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  24. Working Man

    Employee8 — good eye and nice call. (well, put)

    Just took a closer look at COF – She broke her bear flag midday and did not attempt re-test. I’ll watch for re-test in the morning – but otherwise I’m all over the 40 puts here. The open interest on that play is insane. Still can’t figure out ENER — but I’m curious.

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  25. fook

    Phuck PHK

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  26. duck

    short that damn Aflac duck who thinks he’s all the shit!

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  27. AU CONTRAIR

    ENER is a short’s nightmare as of late. This stock has gapped up and ran, pulls back and squeezes the nuts out the shorts like a monster Anaconda “de-balling” a rodent. Make another choice. Notice it did not participate in the solar sell-off. Pick on the weak stocks in a sector that sells off….not the strongest.

    VLO top pick…especially if gasoline comes in soft.

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  28. universe

    short the earth, long planet X

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  29. Pyramid Scheme

    Short PDO to half it’s value.

    ..oh, then if you tell 5 of your friends to send you a dollar, you can short it and have them tell 5 friends, to send them money to short it.
    CBSH too

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  30. Hattery

    GNK of course… then here are some names that appeared on a H S technical screen in no particular order…

    WFR, ALO, BBL, BW, DRYS, GML,GMR, NFG, OTE, PZE, RIO, TIE,UFCS.
    I haven’t looked at the charts of any of these personally yet
    longer term BEAV as I mentioned earlier
    and ICE is setting up

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  31. RaginCajun

    thanks for the list Hattery, you have been on fire lately.

    Thoughts on ARTW?

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