I sold my oil positions: [[NOV]], [[OMNI]], [[SLB]], [[SYNM]]
It was fun!!
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Joined Jan 27, 2008
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Ragin –
Look at GOOG.
Could be breaking a descending triangle.
Great fun …
What are you looking at next ?
Coward.
time to buy SRS, SKF, FXP, when will you listen to Fly’s sage advice?
short refineries (VLO), short oil (USO 09 puts), buy silver+gold (GLD, SLV)
post holiday sell off should be very significant this year. Tboone calims oil $150, but then he puts his cash to work and buys yahoo because he knows his energy stocks are done for awhile and he wants to hype up the prices so he can sell, it’s the classic pump and dump. After shorting oil he comes out and says “oil to $150? Cmon!SURE supply and demand, but what about future supply and demand? With the brazilian find, the Bakken, the Alberta Sands, etc… and future demand with China and Sweeden going solar and wind power completely by 2020, conversion of algee to oil and politicians making it a focal point, futures traders and speculators bidding it up when they’ll never own the pyshical asset behind it… and refineries crack spread getting too tight for refineries to make it?
Way to conqure greed and sell now Cajun, I have a feeling it will be a very nice move. I’ve been peeling off peices of my energy stocks, I sold DUG puts at a very timely spot mid day. I’m still long a couple names, but as of the end of the day I now also own some Jan 09 puts on USO to keep me protected, and I’ll continue to take profits. The only real “theme” I see right now is short the banks and be neutral, and now I’m leaning slightly bearish overall.
Hats —
If oil is going to dump, why short the refiners?
It’s more of a short term hedge, where as gold/silver is a long term hedge. I’ve shorted VLO at 50, I think it will tank before oil does, but if it breaks 51, I’m out. I believe that the refineries tanking is one of many potential catalyst that will cause the dump in crude oil prices. Wouldn’t surprise me if refineries like VLO and TSO tank as oil peaks, giving you a chance to sell your puts/cover shorts on refineries,easing the pain on the peak of oil prices before oil follows shortly and tanks, THEN the refineries recover. But I could be wrong and I’m willing to be nimble and I am okay with losing the entire position if oil tanks on my JUNE OTM puts. I’ve also got more money on oil puts that I will add too next week.