A DIFFICULT DECISION

Let’s hit the bullet points here:

Speed – none.

USD/JPY – at its September lows.

IBB – Likely going to close at/near $303

Relative strength in momo…(NQ unch)

Oil – so poised.

Semi’s, Transports, FXI, EEM – green.

In the face of some serious disaster out there ($BOFI, $WMT, etc), I’ll admit…I’m impressed. Maybe in denial, but impressed.

In other words…I’ll stay.

The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.

What’s the take on this chart? This action here is the one thing I am uneasy about today.

What’s next here?

I got some stuff to run by you in a bit. Just wanted to make sure you noticed this.

I had that last blog written up, and waited to publish it at just the right time. Right at the point you started thinking I was sniffing glue.

More in a bit,

OA

This action is suspect. For the signals I mentioned in my last post, you might want to consider enduring into the close.

I have a feeling this action will be the opposite of what happened yesterday. Draw participants into opening action, reverse mid-morning. I’m starting to think that this is why there were no gaps this morning. Allow everyone to participate at fair prices. If this doesn’t change as I think it might, I’ll be forced to make some adjustments.

This $IBB is heavy as shit, but as we mentioned in After Hours with Option Addict last night, I have to give this the fullness of the day to determine its fate.

Would you consider this action fast? It feels a little heavy, but you’ve seen fast. Is this fast?

I booked my $GOOGL and $FB here and picked up some $TSLA. I’m going to have to salvage some software/security plays here today as well.

FYI yesterday we reversed the opening move at roughly 11:00 am ET.

More later,

OA

No gaps this morning, which I find odd. The market wanted you to participate here, rather than pin you into a corner. I’m still trying to wrap my mind around why that is.

In the meantime, here are the morning signals I am watching…

USD/JPY – We dipped another toe towards the lower end of it’s range. A good tail was dropped, but I’d feel better overall if this were back north of 119.50 today.

$IBB – Thus far yesterday’s movement was an attempt to draw offsides. We snapped back into the range in a vicious manner. $303 needs to hold here on a retest. If it does, this confirms the long bias.

Crude – Oil is a buy here. If it rallies, there’s another reason to grab stocks.

Finally, I want to watch momo stocks here and make sure they don’t shy away from yesterdays highs.

More later,

OA

Trying to be objective. Here’s the days action in SPY. Mind you the majority view this move as bearish.

Trader’s were given a gap down to engage. They took action. The current drifted lower until any longs at the open were stopped, or changed their mind. Late buyers that engaged here were given the negative feedback loop.

I didn’t take a trade today. First time in 2 weeks.

I was intrigued by the number of traders wanting to engage the market on the downside here. Who wouldn’t after such a winning streak?

Anyway, what’s the pain trade?

Speed was my #1 signal I wanted to watch this week. In my opinion the market was walked down. No speed.

Should the speed change, I’ll adjust. This action confirms my opinion of range bound week this week, especially when we gap up tomorrow.

OA