Yesterday’s narrative was a pretty crowded opinion. If you didn’t step into the trap yesterday, it’s a little more fashionable to do it here, as stops are run.
For shits and giggles, I bought some weekly $CMG calls that expire today.
#YOLO
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Eerily quiet here … must be a lot of positioning going on.
lol…not many played this rally. I’ve been polling from the lows.
I think a lot of people were short in our forum. re-positioning going on.
Or paralysis. 🙂
Feels like a rally that will lose air as the day progresses.
Ok
2100 next week
Hey OA – why did you say you liked SCTY as a short? Thanks mang
I bought some the other day but now I’m sorta itching to get out
The spot. Remind me to show you a chart.
No opinion until near the eod. I thought this rally would have fizzled by now, but I was wrong. No fear or worries, though.
I feel ya. Lured in trolls yesterday. That camp pretty quiet today.
Shits & Giggles trades, OA ??
I like it !!!!
I’m up 1.7% today. That is a good sign for my diversified portfolio.
Last leg is TBT. I bot MOAR this morning. 5% position. Rare for me.
Neutral oil and gas. Expecting 40-42/barrel by 4/1. 2.50 Natgas by 7/1.
…and bot SHAK @ 34.25
nice entry
OA, in regards to your most previous post, are there “inflection points” or specific market conditions in which you look for and want to anticipate the pain trade? Thanks for the knowledge man; always appreciated.
Spots where traders are most likely to engage (obvious support/resistance…etc) or news events where everyone is forced to participate.
Thanks OA, really appreciate the response. It provides a ton of insight.
The moments where the crowd gets most engaged. Those occur during sharp price swings, obvious support/resistance areas, news, events, etc. Pain trade only applies to moments where everyone is forced to engage, participate, or react.
MCD & KO are confirming today’s move in equities. Leadership has been identified and CMG is going to continue to rape shorts with its share buyback. I like DRI & PNRA here.
FIT is getting jiggy here —
Been on a helluva run
My portfolio is well diversified. About 25 stocks. I accumulated them starting in last November and recently added heavily in early Feb.
Only six stocks that are trading above their 50d since Feb opex had to “check back to theit 50d. 90% of my holdings are above their 50d. My banks are now above.
That is a primary reason for my bullish stance into June. It would take a surprise global fuck up to take down the market. I do not bet on said fuckups. I stay diversified.
Nothing in a straight line. S&P 2100.
Software stocks excelling today. DATA has nice volume pocket above. Also like MANH here.
The greatest market psychologist of all time. I continue to be amazed by your insights.
Thank you.
monster yolo with CMG – always impressed
it’s possible for the $SPX to kiss 2020 and the market to pull the lever on the trap door
Checking in from the murky depths of tax season…. WNR looks nicely coiled although its a laggard in the space.
OA considering we are up at the 200 day on SPX, how much more room do you think this runs before finally taking a break?
You’ll get a reaction there, similar to how we reacted to draghi. After the first sell, you’ll see another pop back through the 200 day to stop the eager ones out. If the market is to fall, you’ll see a lot of bearish divergences happen into that move.
I played the Sept move wonderfully. The majority of this move has been so frustrating, if for no other reason because it’s exactly the same as Sept and you kept saying such. So obvious I couldn’t believe it. Kudos on being exactly right this ENTIRE move.
bio ready for another run, anyone??
Options expiry week next week makes for a good potential turning point. Someone did a study back whenever about how op/ex weeks are more likely than other weeks to mark significant swing highs or lows. So perhaps we grind out the shorts a bit longer in these overbought conditions. Those who bought premium when it was lower end of the range find the market around the same price (dec 2015). Those that got short on the rip find it higher, and those that actually bought calls had to do it when premium was expensive.
max pain grind higher?
SPY to around 205/206 range next week before Yellen, is the same range off the lows as last Sept. Plus it’s over the 200 day like then as well to trigger more buys is my guess. Just in time for an interest rate hike.
Spot-on on the China thesis from yesterday’s AHWOA. $SINA, $WUBA, $JD, $NOAH, etc. absolutely ripping.
$SINA was brilliant. Those coiled up explosions are beautiful.
Look at MNK for classic wedge breakout. Also ABBV.
Thoughts on MNST? Looks like it at the top of its range. Thinking about buying puts for next week
Was going to try a few of these next week. Nothing planned here into the weekend.
Didn’t take $LABU and it’s ripping as well.
yup. just sold. I’m sure i’ll regret it on monday.
Russell showing strength post crossing 200 day MA for the second time on S&P. If this run still has legs, next short term S&P target has got to be 2043, which was S&P price on December 31, 2015.
These moves make bears become bulls.
Jeez OA man you play this market like a fiddle
I’ve been so inactive trading the last 9 months. At least my long term holdings are up about 15% from the trough in January.