A trap was set today, depending on your perspective. This is where you need to process the days action and try to figure out what the pain trade is.
We gap and go tomorrow…anyone have an opinion on direction?
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I would say pain is up for tomorrow because after today’s action, who can be bullish, especially if you bought the open.
Agree. Though still think we sell off tomorrow.
Stocks are seemingly a long because they managed a decent recovery from the “ECB-is-both-desperate-and-impotent” swoon.
But stocks go lower. Still in the retrace zone of today’s move, rising wedge on longer time frame, low vol recovery this PM, having trouble with the 200 SMA on daily.
Shorts were shaken out at the open and may not have gotten back/stayed back in.
Next major move is down—to try to test the lows of the trading range 1810-1820 SPX.
fly doesn’t seem to think so…
He seems to think the move back inside the wedge today was bullshit and that we’re headed lower.
well, breadth was pretty crap today. maybe that’s all apart of the trap?? not sure anymore.
Breadth was especially shitty today, I think next move is down.
Down. Fly posted leaders of 2016 and it is a sad mix. Meager breadth. IWM lagged today with a rising wedge on it. And I fail to see a catalyst. We go lower.
Moreover, ECB did its thing today – which amazingly now includes corporate bonds – yet markets popped and faded. It also happened to cut its growth outlook.
We often talk of the pain move. Given the run today and medium term, I think longs still have positions and, as said before, shorts were stopped out or exited and only a portion probably engaged again. What hurts more? Losing money, not missing out. I figure pain move is down.
I wish I could predict each day’s moves. Then I’d be really rich.
This market is in the hands of the weak. That alone should explain why it is eventually headed lower, much lower.
How do you know? You sound confident.
lol. When trolls become experts, its time to reevaluate.
I’ve seen so many experts come out today on the back of that “horrible” reversal.
They fell for it too.
Strong hands support the market. Lower highs, lower lows and poor breadth don’t look like strong support to me.
The breadth readings in this last run were only outmatched by 08-09 lows.
But I feel you.
Just finished reviewing my charts. I’m bullish short term into the Fed.
hehe this overnight move was so predictable.
The market clearly was trying to shake out nervous hands. That said, I’m protecting any profits generated today with tight stops. I’ll take a couple singles and doubles.
Valuable insight indeed.