Suppose for a moment you are a fund manager.
Are you starting to perspire? You’re already behind the SPY YTD and you didn’t buy as much as you should’ve in September.
Uh-oh, we’re halfway through October, and heading into a fairly bullish time of the year.
What’s your play? You can’t hide anymore. The higher this thing goes, the more screwed you are.
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hahahaha. classic post. HF managers… come out, come out wherever you are….
$SSEC pretty interesting chart on the weekly. Could be right shoulder forming, but also looks a little like a falling wedge breakout, and possible discouragement bottom on the daily, with positive seasonals as Fly just pointed out.
Suppose you’re an uber smart fund manager, who recognises the bear is here for good, for obvious reasons.
You’ll be selling every rip.
And that’s why the market is setting up for its next little tumble down below 1800.
Too many smart people are getting out, not enough late-comer idiots to keep things levitated.
Exactly like 2007-08.
We’re hitting moon resistance tho…
i agree..there’s a fundamental difference between buying the dip for the last 6 years, and selling the rallies if you believe a major top is in place
but everyone here is a trader so we really don’t give a shit about macro..just give me the next 3 points and we’re all happy
hell, I actually trade better in bear markets…the best short term rallies occur in bears…look at gold and energy since aug…your ‘year’ has already been made in 2 months
USD/JPY could be set up here for a nice move upward right when everyone thinks it is breaking down. See chart: http://tos.mx/rcrkM4
Chart link not working for some reason, BTW. That TOS sharing feature used to work, but it doesn’t appear to be right now. Small picture when you go to that link shows me having a massive profit that, unfortunately, is inaccurate.
More generally, this is an amazing time. I can look at dozens of charts of key assets and find reasons to be bearish. I can look at various others — and in numerous cases, the same charts that contain reasons to be bearish — and find many reasons to be bullish.
if fundamentals don’t align with the technicals, you’re gonna eventually get screwed…be careful
In that regard, not that I think we’re in a similar situation, necessarily, but do people remember there being a lot of reasons to be bulled up in May 2008?
Shit no. Energy/alt energy and select tech was the only place to be long then.
Gotta assume trend is up here.
Sold UWTI at 11.15 from 10.38. Still in my SCO from 79.50. Based on the action and fundamentals I am taking the o/n risk. My profit from this long should shield me from gap risk……..
….. unless it’s a QE announce! Ha!
BID downtrend line capping the price. This is going to give is my thinking
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/stream_44011501.jpg?1444934245
Short answer is probably to 1) scoop up things that sold off (energy, biotech); 2) buy flyers (nflx, goog)…
I’d suspect the FEYE/CYBR complex too… growth that has sold off… speaking of which, those charts look like shit IMO. Still like them?
I do, oddly enough.
Also, media names have been crushed and are all “cheap”
the yen topped at 11:40..the spy bottomed at 11:55….guess what controls these markets..it ain’t fundamentals people
A nice cold glass of FOMO. Still see many doubtful of upside – good call other day OA
OA, when to add more LABU? is there a pull back tomorrow ?
This morning, when you caved into the idea that it was going lower.
yes, I knew. Good call. I guess my fear dominated me in the morning. Any suggestion when to add from now on? Thx
Nope.
Pullback @~ 325-328 is my guess
You are the man
This market is done going down. My guess is QE is coming and the big players already know it. The only way to negate the massive sell off from August is massive amounts of liquity.
Best plays right now are energy including dare I say coal, precious metals, and XIV. All IMO
I fully expect to take a 100% loss on my Oct 16 TSN 41 Puts tomorrow.
Looking at the weekly chart for a 2 year period and my thinking that because of the Bird Flu there my be a shortage of birds for Thanksgiving negatively impacting the Quarter earnings I purchased Nov. 43 puts on TSN.
I’m still positive from my 4 different strikes from Sept.(hit 3 out of 4) but tomorrow will substantially reduce that gain. Time will tell.
A close above 11.45 on UWTI for the week & I’ll let my oil short be stopped out instead of adding to the 1/4 position. Looks like continued range trading.
Japan +2.6% VPL
Chinese Burritos +2.3% VWO
Healthcare +2.3% VHT
Energy +1.5% VDE
‘Merica +1.4% VTI
AMZN +3.2%