If you played $NFLX into earnings with long calls or long puts…or even worse…a straddle or strangle (SHLONG) you are getting kicked down a flight of stairs here in After Hours trade.
For future reference, avoid buying any options with option premiums priced like a stock going into an FDA announcement. Unless you felt $NFLX was getting Phase 3 approval for their Netflix and Chill pill.
Even if this stock moved in your favor, you’d still lose money tomorrow.
Back later tonight,
OA
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I giggled pretty loudly reading this!
One of my favorite headline pics.
That’s the WMT CEO after being tripped up by the BOD’s.
That looks like Cleveland Hopkins Airport. I’m going to have to google image search it
NFLX: P/E = 247 Beta = 1.4 I could never buy something like this.
I draw the line at FB with 99 and .77 respectively but I may ditch it before long. The ride up has been too easy and $100 seems to cause problems.
Futures seem to have found Viagra
Futures looking good tonite…ideal setup for the bulls tomorrow is for USD/JPY to recover all of its prior day losses.
-14.5% and then up 17% in an hour, rather be long than short premium for that but it’s a matter of style bc i trade stock against earnings bets though no position on this one. if long and had bought stock against said strangle or straddle after hours down even 9 or 10% and rode it back up you’d be in fine shape. option payouts are only hockey stick diagrams at expiration. anyone who sold straddles likely panicked and sold into the down 16%
I’d rather be long premium than short in general also. I was just referring to the fact that IV for NFLX is near all time highs.
After the earnings premium deflation tomorrow Oct16 NFLX options do look interesting. My bias is down but it wouldn’t hurt to put on a spread. Wait for open watch volume then trade accordingly. Small amount at risk for these kind of trades.
I suspect all this is noise until the markets open
Yup. Slow fade toward open
Today’s oil OpEx will likely correlate with April and July’s OpEx trading day. The OVX, a measure of oil volatility closed at 42.70 yesterday. That pretty much sits in between the OVX closings the day before April and July’s OpEx. In April, oil traded in a 3.8% range, traded down initially then rallied; finishing up. In July, USO traded in a 2.2% range, and traded straight down.
In April, we were coming off the March low and preparing to consolidate in a range for 2 1/2 months before a trip to 37.75 on 8/24. In July USO pretty muched dropped 27% in a straight line with a few stops along the way.
I am expecting close to July scenario and had bet accordingly at yesterday’s close. I will add to my short as we descend. My plan is negated if we have a day similar to April’s OpEx which likely suggests further consolidation. That is why I only started a 1/4 position toward’s yesterday’s close. Good luck all.
In addition, the inventory number the day before in April and July had no bearing on the trading day. In April we had a slight build in inventory, In July we actually had a drawdown of 4 million barrels preceding Thursday’s selloff. The inventory number is usually noise. It’s the long term trend and technicals that count.
I like that I have a counterpart in this trade. I went long oil yesterday, purchasing a good amount of UCO. My idea is this: the dollar is going lower, so commodities will go higher. That’s really it. Gold has caught a bid on this, and so has oil which should have tanked yesterday after retail sales.
I believe all the fundamentals are just noise [heresy, I know], and I expect this dollar/oil idea to gain traction over the next two weeks.
As for technicals, CL sits right on the trendline from the $38 low and has broken the downward trendline that started back in June of last year. It is now back under that longer term downward trendline, but not by much.
Good lluck to you. Two weeks ago I was an oil bear myself, so I understand your position.
Some articles out this morning to support your position from Barclays and Walk St Examiner. MSM wants oil higher!
Well, it’s noticeably lower this morning
BTW: that was sarcasm! 🙂
Read the Barclays. Basically just says that shale wells will expire at a quicker rate than is currently projected so oil prices will increase at a quicker rate between now and 2020, or something. I’m really not interested in the fundamentals here. I think they play into intraday movement [API slamming oil overnight], but I think prices should be supported and ultimately moved upward by a sinking dollar.
Did not see the Wall St Examiner article.
So shale will expire in 198 years instead of 200…
A priced to perfection option is kind of like the housing market right now. A buyer might wonder where it goes from here, and what’s left in there for me?
For you technical junkies, bullish inverted H & S was just negated a few minutes ago. I look to see how the Algos treat obvious patterns to help with my daily trading.
Congrats Noc. Looks like you win with crude
Thx bchu. I’m on a roll with crude here so I wanna give back while I have a hot hand.
Double bottom just negated at 9:20 on /cl on the 5 min chart. Gotta let these capn obvious signals teigger before entering. Stil moving lower as of 9:23
Beat the Algos by realizing they cannot be imaginative. When I recognize one, I get aggressive.
By the above comment I mean if u wanna take a long shot. I’m still short & looking to add during market hour bounce
So you think it’ll bounce huh? Every mini rallies this week gets sold off even harder
A reasonable r/r before the inventory number would around UWTI 10.24. Gotta use a 2% stop. Mental if you can. The Algos are relentless.
So after $NFLX earnings, is FANG now FAG?
IBB drops even further.
Yup. Both ibb and xbi at their pre market lows
Say what?
OA, you are the man.
OA.. do you have any data on how often the future indexes correctly predict the direction of the corresponding market for that day?
I would say such data does not exist.