We’ve talked a lot about 1998 market comparisons, along with various other asset classes…today I want to turn my attention to Gold.
I started getting bearish on Gold in late 2011, early 2012 when a former co-worker of mine published a book on how to buy gold. That’s about as “bubble” as you can get. Gold is one asset that worked its way into the average household, in one way or another. Reality television about mining for Gold, family members opening businesses in the Gold Rush to buy up gold jewelry, various acquaintances starting collections in precious metals, etc. Shoot, even Mr. T came on the scene to buy Gold in 2011…
Gold was one of the early assets I used to get on this 1998 correlation. Take a look at Gold prices over 1996-1999, focusing specifically on 1998.
Here’s a comparison to 2011-2015…
I took a beating when I started blogging about this here, but I’ve maintained my stance all the way through. Notice that in 1999, one of the most epic squeeze events ever took place in Gold. I think a similar event happens next year. The eventual psychological breach of $1,000 out to clear out my remaining relatives that have interest in this idea and have stayed the course. Once that happens, I think that’s where you start to accumulate…especially if the miners don’t follow Gold down into next year.
Any thoughts? Aside from…”NNNNUUGT”
OA
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Hey just curious, what’s the book?
http://www.amazon.com/All-About-Investing-Gold-Series/dp/0071768343
I hope I don’t get an email or phone call over this later today.
If this rally fails, the bears are going to be deafening.
OA – major kudos for posting these, especially knowing full well the feces-hurlers will be coming
haha.. glad you have so much sympathy for your relatives
They are lucky to have money in the first place.
Jeff I think that sounds plausible to me. I don’t think we have seen the final flush for gold.
You see usd/jpy?
Yeah, blogged about it right at the open.
color me the least bit skeptical here but I’m watching the yen here it still hasn’t made its mind up. To state the obvious gold is tied to fed policy here, Oct….Dec…never? It’s coming to a bit of a crossroads here on the charts. It wouldn’t shock me to see it break out or down. I still think stocks are indecisive here the yen has a failed breakout. All that said if you see a stock rally here I think it’ll also be a gold rally. Fed dovishness the dollar sells off. But yellen hasn’t stopped her bearish tone. She speaks again today we shall see.
+1
I see gold dude also wrote ‘All About Forex Trading and Profiting with Forex’. Awesome. Because it is so very easy to make money in forex!
Both yen and ultrabond futures not on board with this rebound.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0RT2MS20150930
Did France antagonize Russia into strike on ISIS?
usd/jpy rally right on cue wedge working well
Is there an Indexed Life Insurance bubble, because I know more than a few people peddling that stuff for Transamerica now.
+1
I want to totally agree with what’s stated here. In fact, I’m heavily invested in what’s proposed coming to fruition. My concern and fear with the comparison to the late 90’s is this: The Gold market of 1998/99 was probably the real deal; meaning, real buyers and sellers with real deliveries of physical metal. I’m no historical expert on /GC contracts, but I’d be curious if cash settlement was allowed back then, and how many contracts were held to delivery versus today. IMHO, today’s Gold market with cash settlement is just another variant of a Dollar market. If you’re short /GC and are unable/unwilling to cover at expiration, you are allowed to pay up in cash….which is total crap.
Again, I like what this article has to say, but I deeply fear the market has been gamed against us.