This week’s play is to fade each days price action, up until the end of the world on Wednesday at least.
For example, I stumbled upon a circle jerk of bears last night, each trying to climax over how much we’d open down this morning. I tried to get long NQ futures, but missed my fill. Sucks, because that happened to be the overnight low. Markets opened green, and if you bought a green open, you got cut up here a bit.
If we stay red into the close, we’ll rally tomorrow.
Tonight, I want to be long some USD/JPY, some /NKD, and some /NQ down around here. I am already short /GC at 1132 and change.
I’ll likely book this $BIS we bought on Friday and put on some weeklies in $GOOGL and $NFLX.
What are you up to out there?
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imo market preparing meltdown
Why?
because of price action , breath ( and btw we’re in bear market cycle )
Where along the way did you wake up and say, “bear market” ?
i did notice 2015 was all quitly selling on highs .. fuel was really missing lately , i speculated or another leg higher to distribute last time or fuel missing to do it ..but there’s more then 1 index calling for long term support check
What are you using to determine this?
*quietly
determine what ? fuel missing ? tide turned ? assett changing course ? i use prevalently price action.. and basic volume accumulation and distribution analysis.. but there’s more calling for downside at this levels on long term charts …
Have you added basic trend analysis and channel support? Tide hasn’t quite turned yet…
http://imgur.com/BGPROwH
Yep. The monthly close last month was very constructive too….for monthly charts and longer.
we may get another flup up but it’s the same story .. downtrend awaits..top of this if you really want go TA you will see lot of interesting things of indexes, not just 1, and across the globe..
Global enough for you? It covers everything except U.S. indexes, and the long term support looks interesting.
http://imgur.com/aKUdFoD
very typical bear market price action on many boards .. today open speaks more then lil weakness imo as many charts couldn’t even reach basic resistences
i see assets sold with violence at this level
You don’t think bio has some follow thru too the down side tomorrow?
Not sure yet.
Been scalping extreme RSI in either direction. Working great. Superb analysis broseph.
Great strategy for this week my dude.
Weekly TNA calls and puts…Just got out of this week’s $70 TNA put, right into a $72 call…
What’s your target on /GC?
OA,
Are you planning to hold /GC for more than a day?
Yeah, decent swing location, IMO
😉
?
i guess we have to be payers to get any levels of guidance these days
Just banked a nice pop on a nflx weekly day trade put…not sure which way to go with nflx weekly for overnight trade..call or put since it looks to me like we are right in the middle
Trying to figure out when to buy into these gold miners actually. I need to set aside some more time to look at the fundamentals and match them up with the charts. I’m thinking maybe slightly higher lows is the spot…
OA – A lot of people are talking about a bear market, but let’s face it, people have been talking about it since 2011. Talk is cheap.
Did you see that graph I posted for the search “market crash?”
Maybe that’s because the market crashed in August. Look, what I’m saying is all kinds of people are talking shit and fear-mongering. I would bet a very small percentage of those people have money where their mouth is.
Why are they mongering then you think?
Why does ZH exist?
I wasn’t being antagonistic…was just chatting.
I am actually short, and not fear-mongering. Actually, I’m scared shitless to hold.
Didn’t think you were. Saying that people are talking bearish for the same reason as ZH exists.
Right, got it.
I challenge everyone here to put on a sizable SPY short and tell me it’s an easy trade to hold.
I honestly have no clue what is going to happen next in the market so I’ve just been staying on the sidelines for the most part. Seems way too hard right now. I hear people saying without a doubt this or that is going to happen. I don’t quite understand where the conviction is coming from.
My conviction come from the fact that I am john the baptist.
I am Antipas…just lurking in the distance.
LOL Of course you are. IBC=(@#
Antipas was supposedly roasted alive in a hollow life-size bull, which had a bonfire under its belly, because Antipas refused to renounce his faith in Christ Jesus.
When Antipas was advised:
“Antipas, the whole world is against you!”,
Antipas reputedly replied:
“Then I am against the whole world!”
Or I could be Herod Antipas, who beheaded John the Baptist.
Wish we had taken this to twitter, lol
OA, my thoughts here are to sell weekly puts on a down day, especially because I’m positioned with a fair amount of cash, so if we catch a very sharp day down I’ll either have no problem having those positions getting called, or taking profits after two up days. What are your thoughts on this?
Why not sell more time, for some more money?
Purely risk control reasons at this point and really not having a strong sense of where the market will be in a month. However, if I sold deeper out of the money, then that would balance out the time risk. Appreciate the response, and allowing stream of conciseness.
Thesis of 5-10 more days of chop, followed by range break, still intact. I’m leaning towards a retest of the balance of upper range, before failing.
China PMI on Wednesday (9/23) will be a major market mover:
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/20/china-pmi-japan-inflation-singapore-taiwan-data-risks-to-asia-markets.html
Yes, 9/23
NINE TWENTY THREE! Lol
Shit guys, we are fucked
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c21qNyeb0kY&sns=em
“For example, I stumbled upon a circle jerk of bears last night, each trying to climax over how much we’d open down this morning.”
Beautiful prose.
Since we closed green today then we won’t rally Tuesday.
Sounds good to me.
today may be that you get convinced of the downtrend
Ooooh….I like that confidence.
Jeff – What was the area of balance for the past few weeks? I think you said 1950? How far of a move out of the range would you consider it to be a true trend change?
Cash Index…1950. / 1940.
So a move how far out of that zone would make you think it’s a change?
Watch the yen. The yen made a move out of balance, then back into it. Currently sitting right on it.
you welcome bro
Whoa, when did you turn asshole?
there was not sarcasm in my line, bro ..all fine here.. hope you are fine too ..
if you prefer I retire bro* and use *Jeff
or OA. as you wish
TWtR weeklies. Looked less pessimistic than the rest.
Bought
TSLA weekly 265’s and 270’s
GOOG 670’s
FXI Oct 40’s
URI Oct 70’s
Watching AMZN if it can’t hold 538, could get slippery….no price history at these levels
Being defended so far
Now, not so much, but no panic selling
adding on xgti
could check 0.44$ but it seems there’s some serious client here , lack of sellers too
very interesting R/R in any case
Jeff – I know you look at those wedge patterns a lot. I’m not the greatest technical guy but if I flip those bullish wedge patterns upside down it looks like a lot of the indices are breaking down out of what i guess you would call a bearish wedge. Do I have this wrong?
I guess on the flipside if I look at a chart of UVXY…that’s a bullish wedge right? Same with SDS? Looks like both are breaking out above them
SDS, yes…I don’t see it in UVXY.
DISBELIEF!
If it helps anybody, I just capitulated on my FOGO stock in all accounts. Still holding WING, though.
All in..bought more TSLA weekly 265’s and 270’s and more GOOGL 670’s.
Going for a walk…
everyone panic
Panic!!!!! PANIC!!!! Panic!!!!
(new avatar just for the occasion)
bitcoin chart looks pretty good on higher time frame. Falling wedge, equal high, and now the dip.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btce/btcusd
Balls fucking deep in TSLA and FIT out of the money weekly’s —
Good luck – hopefully your balls are retained…