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Zulauf: Periphery Countries in Europe That Have Been in Extended Recession Will Enter Depression and Break Up the Euro

“I think the periphery goes into depression. When you look at a country like Greece, it’s now been in recession for three years. GDP is probably down 15 percent from the top. The stock market is down 90 percent, which is the equivalent of 1929 to 1932 in the U.S. This is depression-like,” Zulauf tells King World News, as reported by Business Insider.

“I expect next year one country, probably three, will exit the euro. That will make 2012 very interesting because there are no rules on how to exit the euro.”

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Argentina poised to become major oil/gas player?

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Argentina could be nearing a shale oil and gas boom similar to the one that transformed the US energy landscape as former state monopoly YPF eyes another 1bn barrel discovery adjacent to a Patagonian field whose reserves were more than six times bigger than thought.

YPF has almost finished drilling a 502 sq km area just north of the discovery zone and believes full results will be equally vast. Two of the three wells are in production and “the yield is exactly the same,” says Tomás García Blanco, YPF’s executive director for upstream.

Asked if this heralded another 1bn barrel discovery, Mr García Blanco says: “Yes. But until the third well is drilled … I would like to be cautious. We hope to know by the end of the year or January 2012.”

The group, which is 57.43 per cent owned by Spain’s Repsol, announced in November that it had discovered 927m barrels of oil equivalent in a 428 sq km zone of the Vaca Muerta (“Dead Cow”) formation in south-western Argentina – more than six times higher than its initial estimate in May of 150m barrels. The discovery is three-quarters oil and one-quarter gas, it says.

That, Mr García Blanco notes, is based on “conservative” estimates that only 4 per cent of all the hydrocarbons will be extracted. Some in the US believe recovery rates of 8 per cent or even 15 per cent may be possible in time – something that will lead to eye-popping estimates of the potential for shale worldwide.

Argentina has some of the world’s biggest and best-quality reserves of shale hydrocarbons, which are trapped thousands of metres underground and released by fracturing rocks using high-pressured water, sand and chemicals. The US Energy Information Administration this year ranked Argentina third globally in terms of technically recoverable shale gas resources with 774,000bn cubic feet.

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El-Erian: EU Treaty Good but Not Great

“Additional tensions are likely to surface as leaders return to their domestic constituencies and, importantly, as the summit’s broad agreements get translated into specifics. This is not only about stress between the 17 eurozone countries and the 10 other members of the European Union (such as Britain) that are not members of the zone. It is also about frictions within each group,”

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