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A Flight to Safety in Europe Occurs as German Bonds and Rates of PIIGS Rise

“German bunds rose amid concern measures to increase the euro-region’s financial firewall will fail to stem the euro-area crisis, spurring demand for the region’s safest assets.

Italian government debt fell as it sold 3.82 billion euros ($5.11 billion) of bonds today. Ten-year bunds gained for the fifth time in six days after a German industry report predicted consumer confidence will decline in April. Finance ministers from the 17 euro nations will meet in Copenhagen on March 30 to discuss bailout provisions. German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave her first indication yesterday that Germany could let temporary and permanent rescue funds run in parallel.

“It’s far from certain that we will have an increase in the rescue funds’ capacity and also the devil will be very much in the detail, whether Germany would go ahead with raising the capacity of the permanent funds or not,” said Elwin de Groot, a market economist at Rabobank Nederland in Utrecht. “That will keep markets on guard. This confidence figure that we saw this morning was really a small dip, but overall consumers remain fairly downbeat.”…”

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Asia welcomes comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke

SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Asian shares rallied Tuesday, with investors welcoming comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that signaled U.S. monetary policy will remain accommodative.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HK:HSI +1.33%  rose 1.3%, Shanghai Composite CN:000001 +0.32%  advanced 0.3%, and Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average JP:100000018 +1.75%  jumped 1.7%, hitting a fresh 2012 high in the session.

South Korea’s Kospi KR:0100 +0.56%  and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index AU:XJO +0.66%  each rose 0.8%.

Bernanke remarks, German data boost U.S. stocks

Stocks rise after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signals more easy monetary policy and positive German business confidence data cheers Europe. (Photo: AP/Seth Wenig)

The gains in Asia followed a strong performance for U.S. stocks Monday, after Bernanke said that it’s not yet certain the recent pace of improvement in the nation’s labor market will be sustained but improvements may be supported by “continued accommodative policies.” Read more on U.S. stockmarket action.

“Chairman Bernanke’s palpable disappointment in terms of jobs growth played out like music to the ears of market sentiment,” said Stewart Hall at RBC Capital Markets.

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Consumer Confidence in Germany Rises Unexpectedly on Recent Stimulus Programs

German business confidence unexpectedly rose to an eight-month high in March, suggestingEurope’s largest economy will return to growth even as the sovereign debt crisis curbs euro-area demand for its exports.

The Munich-based Ifo institute said today its business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, increased to 109.8 from a revised 109.7 in February. Economists forecast it would remain unchanged at the initial February reading of 109.6, according to the median of 44 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

Unemployment at a two-decade low is fueling domestic demand, while the European Central Bank’s injection of more than 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion) into the banking system has helped to bolster investor sentiment. Germany’s benchmarkDAX share index is up 18 percent this year. Still, manufacturing output unexpectedly contracted this month as governments and households reduced spending across the euro region,Germany’s largest export market….”

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Singapore’s Industrial Production Grows Less Than Expected

Singapore’s industrial production grew less than economists estimated in February as a slump in electronics output persisted.

Manufacturing rose 12.1 percent from a year earlier after a revised 9.6 percent decline in January, the Economic Development Board said today. The median of 13 economists surveyedby Bloomberg News was for a 16.2 percent gain.

Asia’s manufacturing rebound from the first two months of the year, when the output numbers were distorted by the Lunar New Year holidays shutting factories, may be limited by Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis and China’s slowing economic growth. The region’s currencies have declined in March even as six months of the strongest U.S. job growth since 2006 bolstered the outlook for demand.

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Italy’s Monti Worried About Contagion From Spain

“Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti expressed concern about Spain’s public finances on Saturday, and said it would not take much to reignite the euro zone debt crisis and revive the risk of it spreading to Italy.

Mario Monti
Bloomberg | Getty Images

Speaking at a conference by Lake Como where he was discussing the Italian government’s new labor reforms, Monti praised Spain’s efforts to reform its jobs market but said it had fallen behind on budget control.

Spain shocked markets last month when it said it had missed its 2011 budget deficit target and a few days later set itself a softer goal for 2012.

“It (Spain) certainly made profound reform of the labor market, but it did not pay the same attention to public finances,” Monti said. “This is causing us big concern because their yields are rising and it wouldn’t take much to recreate trends that could spread to us through contagion.”

He added that any fresh eruption of the euro zone sovereign debt[cnbc explains] crisis could cancel out the progress made in Italy and “take us back months.”

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South Korea nuclear summit terse amid planned North Korean missle launch

Seoul, South Korea (CNN) — President Barack Obama travels to South Korea Saturday on a three-day trip centered on an international nuclear security summit in Seoul.

He is due to arrive in Seoul early Sunday, where he will later hold a bilateral meeting with his South Korean counterpart Lee Myung-bak.

Top officials from 54 countries, including China and Russia, will attend the summit meeting on Monday and Tuesday.

But its message of international cooperation has been overshadowed by North Korea’s announcement last week that it is planning to carry out a rocket-powered satellite launch in April.

South Korea has said it considers the satellite launch an attempt to develop a nuclear-armed missile, while the United States has warned the move would jeopardize a food-aid agreement reached with Pyongyang in early March.

President Lee has already said he will use the summit to drum up international support against the actions of his northern neighbor.

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Goldman: This Awful Decade Could Be the Century’s Best for Global Growth

If demographics are destiny, then this might be the best decade for global economic growth in 70 years. Take that, Great Recession.

The following chart from Goldman Sachs breaks down global growth over the past 30 years and projects forward for the next 40. The good (or maybe bad) news is that despite the whole “global financial crisis” thing you might have read about, the 2010s are the big winner. (A note on the chart: The dark blue shows Brazil, Russia, India and China’s share of global growth, the lighter blue the next 11 biggest emerging markets, the lightest blue all other emerging markets, and the grey the world’s rich economies.)

To read the rest and see the chart, go here.

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Japan Trade Surplus Sparks Confirmation of a China Slowdown; Dovish Action Expected

“Asian stocks rose after Japan posted an unexpected trade surplus and as a survey that showedChina’s manufacturing may contract this month stoked speculation the government may introduce more measures to bolster growth.

First Tractor Co., a Chinese maker of farm equipment, jumped 7.6 percent in Hong Kong after the mainland’s central bank cut reserve requirements to more branches of Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. Samsung Electronics Co. (005930), Asia’s No.1 consumer-electronics maker that counts China as its biggest market, gained 1.3 percent in Seoul. Honda Motor Co., Japan’s second-largest carmaker, added 1.7 percent in Tokyo.

“I don’t see a hard landing happening in China this year because of the policy offsets that can be put in place,” saidAndrew Pease, Sydney-based chief investment strategist for the Asia-Pacific region at Russell Investment Group, which manages about $150 billion. “China’s housing sector remains a key concern. The anecdotes coming out of the housing market suggest the weakness is quite pronounced.”

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EU Service Manufacturing Falls More Than Expected

“Euro-area services and manufacturing output contracted more than economists forecast in March on declining domestic demand, adding to signs that the region’s economy is sliding into recession.

A euro-area composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries dropped to 48.7 from 49.3 in February, London-based Markit Economics said in an initial estimate today. Economists forecast a gain to 49.6, according to the median of 21 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. A reading below 50 indicates contraction….”

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Bernanke Says Europe Needs to do More Since U.S. Money Markets are Still Exposed to the EU Debt Crisis

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“WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says the threats from Europe’s debt crisis have eased, but U.S. money market funds remain exposed to risky European assets.

In testimony prepared for a congressional hearing Wednesday, Bernanke noted developments that have minimized the danger. He pointed to bailout support that European leaders provided in exchange for deep budget cuts by the Greek government and he highlighted the agreement by private creditors to reduce Greece’s debt.

But he said Europe must take further steps, including strengthening its banking system even more and making “a significant expansion of financial backstops” to guard against troubles in one country spilling over to other nations.

“Europe’s financial and economic situation remains difficult, and it is critical that the European leaders follow through on their policy commitments to ensure a lasting stabilization,” Bernanke said in remarks prepared for the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

While U.S. financial institutions have reduced their exposure to Europe, Bernanke said roughly 35% of assets in U.S. prime money market funds are in European holdings.

“U.S. financial firms and money market funds have had time to adjust their exposures and hedge their risks to some degree … but the risks of contagion remain a concern both for these institutions and their supervisors and regulators,” Bernanke said.

Bernanke said if Europe took a severe turn for the worse, the U.S. financial sector would have to contend not only with problems stemming from its direct exposure to European loans and investments but also with broader market movements, including declines in global stock prices, increased credit costs and reduced availability of funding….”

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The EU Tries a Tit for Tat Economic Reform Policy

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“BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union is seeking powers to block foreign companies from winninglucrative government contracts unless their home countries open their own public-sector deals toEuropean firms.

The proposals unveiled Wednesday appear to be targeted mostly at China, whose companies have obtained public projects in Europe.

The EU says China’s massive government contracts remain mostly reserved for local companies — a claim that Beijing rejects.

But the EU also hopes to gain concessions from the U.S. and Japan, which it says are more restrictive to foreign bidders than the 27-country bloc.

The EU’s Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht, said “This proposal will increase the leverage of the European Union in international negotiations.”

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