“Commodities snapped two days of gains before a report forecast to show the U.S. isn’t adding jobs fast enough to cut the unemployment rate. The euro weakened, while stocks and equity-index futures were little changed.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 raw materials slid 0.4 percent at 7:45 a.m. in New York, with copper falling 0.7 percent and oil dropping 0.8 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.1 percent and S&P 500 futures added less than 0.1 percent. The euro declined 0.5 percent to $1.2883 as the dollar strengthened against all but two of its 16 major counterparts.”

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“The natural gas glut that’s straining drillers is creating a bonanza for pipeline operators, spurring the biggest increase in exports to Mexico and Canada since the 1970s.

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (KMP), the biggest U.S. pipeline company, and its rivals are planning to add 2.4 billion cubic feet a day of export capacity within three years, or enough gas to heat 32,000 U.S. homes. That’s a 58 percent increase on this year’s total, which in turn was up 34 percent from 2011.”

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“BANGKOK (AP) — The restart of refineries in the storm-hit northeastern United States helped lift oil prices on Thursday.

Benchmark oil for December delivery rose 7 cents at late afternoon Bangkok time to $86.31 inelectronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose 56 cents to finish at $86.24 per barrel in New York.

Nine oil refineries that make up 8 percent of U.S. refining capacity sit in the region hit by superstorm Sandy. Nearly all were affected by the storm, and two still were not operating late Wednesday.

Crude prices were up “following reports that a number of key Northeastern refineries were back in operation after Hurricane Sandy, which was seen bolstering near term demand for crude oil,” CME Group said in an energy market report.”

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China’s PMI climbed back above 50 to 50.2. Copper, oil, and other commodities rose in celebration that a slowdown may be over in  China.

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“The deepest slump in Australian wheat shipments in six years will exacerbate the biggest contraction in global exports in a generation after droughts withered crops around the world.

Sales by Australia, last year’s second-largest supplier, will tumble 31 percent to 17 million metric tons in the 12 months through Sept. 30, based on the median of seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The prediction is 1 million tons lower than forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The most widely held option on the Chicago Board of Trade gives holders the right to buy the grain for delivery in December at $10 a bushel, or 15 percent more than now, bourse data show.”

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Think futures…..

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“Oil rose from a four-month low in New York as better-than-expected company earnings bolstered confidence that economic recovery will support fuel demand.

West Texas Intermediate crude climbed as much as 0.8 percent as European equities advanced after results from BP Plc (BP/) and Deutsche Bank AG beat analyst estimates. Prices fell earlier after Phillips 66, Hess Corp. (HES), NuStar Energy LP (NS) and PBF Energy Inc. reduced refinery operations on the U.S. East Coast because of Atlantic storm Sandy. Gasoline traded near a two-week high because of the storm’s disruptions to supply.

“We do not see much downside risk for oil demand,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London. The impact of Sandy is “mildly bearish” for crude prices, he said.”

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WTI is down below $86 while Brent is firmly below $109…

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” Only a few months ago, traders and investors were fretting about whether tensions in the Middle East and production problems elsewhere would lead to a shortage of crude oil. Now, many are worried there may be too much.”

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“Gold futures may slump to $1,600 an ounce by the end of the year, according to technical analysis by Paul Kavanaugh at FuturePath Trading LLC.

The contract for December delivery settled below its 50-day moving average for the second straight day, signaling the metal may slide 6 percent from yesterday’s closing price of $1,701.60 on the Comex in New York, Kavanaugh, the Chicago-based director of business development, said in a telephone interview.

“The downside risks are growing, and prices have peaked for this year,” said Kavanaugh, who correctly predicted in early April that the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials would slump by the end of the second quarter. “Gold will correct further.”

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After five days of losses oil gets a pop. WTI is up a stick at $86.71 and Brent is up  $1.18 @ $109.03….

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Oil rallied strong overnight after China PMI data was released. During the overnight session Europe’s poor PMI data and declining business confidence in Germany helped Brent to pare gains.

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China released preliminary data showing growth in manufacturing. The reading is the 12th consecutive data point below 50, but was an increase and therefore copper and other commodities found risk on traders.

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“Gold fell to a six-week low in London on speculation a stronger dollar will curb demand for an alternative investment. Other precious metals declined.

The U.S. Dollar Index, a measure against six major trading partners, climbed to a one-week high. Bullion has erased gains made after the Federal Reserve announced a third round of debt- buying on Sept. 13. The Fed concludes a meeting tomorrow. Stimulus measures taken by central banks from Europe to China helped drive gold to a 10-month high of $1,796.05 on Oct. 5.

“The dollar has been stronger and that’s one of the reasons why gold has been under pressure,”Afshin Nabavi, a senior vice president at bullion refiner MKS Finance SA in Geneva, said today by phone. “It could be a healthy correction. It’s just a matter of time before gold can reach $1,800 an ounce.”

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WTI is firmly below $89 per barrel and Brent is finding more resilience due to global  political  risk.

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See the graphic here.

“Oil headed for a second weekly gain in New York after TransCanada (TRP) Corp. shut its Keystone pipeline for repairs, disrupting crude supplies to the U.S. Midwest.

Futures rose as much as 0.2 percent, extending the longest run in more than a decade of daily price moves of less than 25 cents. Crude pared a decline of as much as 1.6 percent yesterday after TransCanada shut the 590,000 barrel-a-day link for three days, saying it found a “small anomaly” in a section running from Missouri to Illinois. Improving U.S. fuel demand is being met by rising local supplies, a government report this week showed. The latest U.S. growth data were mixed.

“The macro-economic side is not showing big enough figures to pull the market up significantly,” Thina Saltvedt, an analyst at Nordea Bank AB, said by telephone from Oslo. “Any move upwards will be driven by the political risk increasing or further supply disruptions such as the pipeline in the U.S. having to close for three days.”

Crude for November delivery was little changed at $92.09 a barrel, in electronic trading on theNew York Mercantile Exchange at 12:09 p.m. London time. Futures slid 2 cents yesterday to $92.10. Prices are 0.3 percent higher this week and down 6.8 percent this year.

Brent for December settlement was at $112.66 a barrel, up 24 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The front-month European benchmark’s premium to the corresponding West Texas Intermediate contract was at $20.56. The gap has narrowed since reaching a one-year high of $23.95 on Oct. 15.”

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The numbers are in to determine further who was more accurate in Tuesday’s presidential debate….

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“Oil traded close to a one week-high after industrial output and retail sales accelerated last month in China, the world’s second-biggest crude consumer.

West Texas Intermediate futures were little changed after closing at the highest since Oct. 9. China’s industrial production increased 9.2 percent in September and retail sales rose the most since March, the National Bureau of Statistics said in Beijing today. The physical oil market is tight, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“The China numbers are in line with what people expected, so that’s the good news,” said Andy Sommer, a senior oil analyst at Axpo Trading AG in Dietikon, Switzerland, who predicts Brent crude will trade at $112 a barrel by year-end. “Chinese officials suggested fourth-quarter growth would be better, which is hopeful for demand.”

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“Oil traded near the highest level in a week in New York on signs Germany may ease its resistance to a Spanish bailout and after industrial production rose more than forecast in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer.

Futures were little changed after rising as much as 0.7 percent today. Two German lawmakers said the country is open to Spain seeking a precautionary credit line. Output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities rose 0.4 percent in September, twice as much as the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, data from the Federal Reserve in Washington showed yesterday.

“All the measures taken to show some progress in the European debt crisis should improve sentiment for commodities and for crude as well,” said Hannes Loacker, an analyst at Raiffeisen Bank International AG in Vienna, who predicts Brent crude will trade at about $114 a barrel at the end of the year.”

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