[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgcGZ7WLocI 450 300]

I thought i was pessimistic, but Russell takes the cake.

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“After getting off to a positive start this year, many key economic data points like manufacturing and job numbers have disappointed.  And the risks of a U.S. recession are on the rise.

In today’s Breakfast With Dave report, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg says we are seeing some incredibly rare things happen. He points to 7 key signs that recession risks are rising:”

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“UBS technical analysts Michael Riesner and Marc Müller make some grim predictions for the stock market in their latest weekly market commentary.

Riesner and Müller write that the continued outperformance of U.S. stocks versus the rest of the world does not seem sustainable.

From their note:

Last week we highlighted the increasing divergences on the inter-market side between the still resilient SPX and the weak picture in Asian markets, underperforming cyclical sectors, declining inflation expectations, and the intact bull trend in the US dollar. All this finally results in a major divergence forming in the SPX versus the MSCI World, which was not able to break its May 2011 reaction high.

Last week we said that pressure in the financial system is building. If we are correct then it is very likely that this pressure will unfold in a short and sharp correction and the most likely timeframe for this move/event will be later Q3 and/or Q4.

They think 1325 is an especially important level to watch on the S&P 500, saying that if the index breaks below that level, the next stop could be somewhere in the 1100s”

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“Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is set to report earnings after the close on Tuesday. With a great sell-through in iPads but a weaker iPhone demand ahead of the upcoming iPhone 5, everyone is looking for guidance, and it could boil down to the computer sales being the ultimate driver today. Of course, you better be looking for any hint and projection around the Apple television release.”

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“People aren’t going to buy cars every two or three years anymore, an automotive website says based on an unscientific poll it conducted online.

Now, 78% of the more than 4,000 people polled by AutoMD.com says they will keep their cars at least 10 years.”

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Really ?

Full comments via Z.H.

Watch closely friends. These are the times that unclever men craft quotes which will be held eternally above their heads.

China’s economic resilience is under the spot light following a slowdown in growth rates in recent months. The big question facing investors in China and the global economy is can the world’s second biggest economy avoid a hard landing.

A rather interesting argument over the future of the Chinese economy has erupted following Jim Roger’s, the CEO of Rogers Holdings decision to call out two China bears in an interview with Investment Week.

Rogers dismissed fears over a hard landing and said both Hugh Hendry, who runs the Eclectica Absolute Return Fund and SocGen’s Albert Edwards are dead wrong to be so negative on the Chinese economy.

“Hugh has been dead wrong about China for three years now and China has not collapsed as he predicted, loudly, verbally and widely” said Rogers. Hendry used an interview with the Financial Times last week to predict bad things for investors and the global economy but has otherwise been keeping a low profile after betting on difficult times for China.

Rogers dismissed Edwards as being negative on everything, even Catholic saints.

“Albert has been bearish on everything for a long time. So if you are telling me he is bearish on China and bullish on everything else that would be different. But no, he is bearish on everything, including you, me and Mother Teresa” said Rogers in the interview with Investment Week.

Read here:

“Harry Dent, the financial newsletter writer and CEO of economic forecasting firm HS Dent, has one of the most bearish calls on stocks we’ve heard in a while.

Appearing on CNBC yesterday, Dent explained the demographics-driven thesis behind his Dow 3000 call:”

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“Stock prices were essentially flat in the decade through 2009, but the next 10 years will turn out a lot better, according to Seth Masters, chief investment officer of Asset Allocation and Bernstein Global Wealth Management.

He sees the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching 20,000 within five to 10 years. That represents a 58 percent gain from recent levels.

“This argument may seem provocative,” Masters told The New York Times. “But that’s only because market conditions are so unusual, and so many people have become so pessimistic.”

He – and plenty of other experts – says the United States, Europe and emerging markets will ultimately recover from their woes.”

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In Play ,

On the Wires 

“Investors looking to preserve their purchasing power will have to avoid Treasurys and put their money in “real assets” such as stocks and real estate, Bill Gross, Pimco co-founder, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Monday.”

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This article explores the apporaches we have taken and why they may not be working.

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According to one industry worker who is ‘genuinely frightened’  ratings agencies have not learned from their mistakes.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gcvVJoxJeg&feature=g-all-u

Via Ivanhoff, a great collection of quotes from the new Schwager release.

Read the quotes here.

(CNN) — There will be no new gun laws after the Aurora shooting for the basic reason that the American people do not want them.

Over the past 20 years, support for gun control has collapsed in the United States.

Three-quarters of Americans want to keep the right to own handguns, weapons whose only function is to kill human beings at close range. In 1959, 60% of Americans wanted handguns banned outright for all but police officers.

Responding to public opinion, states have loosened gun laws to allow citizens to carry weapons with them almost anywhere they go. In Georgia, Arizona, Tennessee and Virginia, it’s legal to carry a gun into a bar. Guns and booze: What could go wrong?

But here’s the odd thing: At the same time as Americans have become more enthusiastic about gun rights, fewer and fewer Americans actually want to own a gun themselves.

In the 1990s, the proportion of Americans who kept a gun in the home tumbled from one-half to one-third. And while gun ownership has risen in the Obama years, it remains lower than in the 1960s when strong majorities of the American people demanded stricter laws.

How can we make sense of this weird divergence between beliefs and behavior?

Read here:

I was struck last week to hear that the city of San Bernardino, California is declaring bankruptcy. It follows similar moves in the past month by Mammoth Lakes and Stockton, also in California. Before them it was Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, Jefferson County, Alabama, Central Falls, Rhode Island – the list continues.

What in the world is going on? Companies go bankrupt all the time – but what happens when a city goes under?

In reality, the two aren’t that different. Companies file for what’s known as “Chapter 11” – a provision which enables them to renegotiate deals, to downsize, to fire people. But filing Chapter 11 also gives them the option of liquidating – or breaking up. That would be essentially impossible for a city – it also happens to be unconstitutional. So cities go for “Chapter 9,” which covers municipalities: that’s cities, but also towns, villages, taxing districts and utilities.

641 cases of municipal bankruptcy have been filed since Chapter 9 was created. Most have been smaller cases involving utilities. But when an entire city goes bankrupt, things are much more complicated. It affects public sector jobs and vital services like fire and police departments.

Now, naturally, we assume all bankruptcies are a bad thing. They’re humiliating, they impact business, they’re difficult to recover from. The situation is far from ideal. But it’s actually not without its benefits.

Take for example San Bernardino. It was running a $45 million deficit (on a $130 million budget.) But its creditors – workers and retirees – were unwilling to help out. The best the unions were able to do was to offer what they thought was a major concession: allowing newly-hired public safety workers to retire with 90 percent of their salary at the age of 55 – instead of 50, which had been the earlier deal!

That won’t work in a chapter 9 bankruptcy. An independent judge brings all parties to a table where an agreement has to be reached – no matter how painful. And, we need some of those painful decisions – not just at the federal level, but at local and state levels as well. At its heart, the bankruptcies you keep hearing about these days aren’t about taxes being too low or spending on city services being too high – they’re about pensions.

Read the rest here:

The clam has to consider how much is too much when buying treasuries. Some do not expect any action until September or later. As the clam stated last week he would like to see congress get its act together and stop playing politics in a election year.

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“Earnings season is well underway. 18 percent of S&P 500 companies reported earnings this last week and 34 percent more are slated to report this week.

Rather than dwell on company-specific performance, we wanted to see what these industry leaders were saying about the global economy.”

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