Freakonomics’ Stephen Dubner: Who Is President Matters Much Less Than We Think

On Tuesday, Nov. 6, Americans will head to the polls to elect the next President of the United States. Millions of dollars have already been spent on the election. Super PACs representing both President Obama and the Republican presidential candidates are experiencing a flood of monetary contributions while Americans are witnessing firsthand the effects of unlimited donations on their televisions and radio airwaves.

As the election nears, the records of both President Obama and his Republican Party challenger will be analyzed and scrutinized over and over again. Voters will decide who they think will do a better job not only governing the nation but also of leading it out of economic disaster.

But does the President have as much influence over the nation – and specifically the economy – as the electorate thinks he does?

“The president generally matters so much less than we think,” says journalist and Freakonomics Author Stephen Dubner. “Especially when it comes to the economy.”

Read the rest here (or watch the video).

WASHINGTON, Feb 6 (Reuters) – The IMF’s chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, said on Monday it looks like the ‘haircut’ on Greek private debt will be “very large” as negotiations between bondholders and the government drag on to cut Greece’s debt burden.

“With respect to private creditors at this stage it looks like the haircut will be very large,” Blanchard told an event at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Read the rest here.

Read: Ritholtz schools El Rushbo.

by CalculatedRisk on 2/06/2012 12:13:00 PM

There have been some recent articles arguing the “housing bottom is nowhere in sight”. That isn’t my view.

First there are two bottoms for housing. The first is for new home sales, housing starts and residential investment. The second bottom is for prices. Sometimes these bottoms can happen years apart.

For the economy and jobs, the bottom for housing starts and new home sales is more important than the bottom for prices. However individual homeowners and potential home buyers are naturally more interested in prices. So when we discuss a “bottom” for housing, we need to be clear on what we mean.

For new home sales and housing starts, it appears the bottom is in, and I expect an increase in both starts and sales in 2012.

To see the graphs and read the rest, go here.

By Derek Thompson

Who they are, where they are, and how they got left behind.

Understanding this chart: I’m tracking the growth in unemployment by DURATION with the shortest-term unemployed in orange at the bottom, and the long-term unemployed in blue at the top. I’ve indexed all numbers to begin at 100 in January 2007. Takeaway 1: People unemployed for 15-26 weeks (red) have doubled. Takeaway 2: People unemployed for 27 weeks and over have quadrupled.

See that graph? Click it. Print it. Tape it to your wall, and maybe give it some lamination. This is what the tragedy of long-term unemployment looks like, with the blue line tracking the quadrupling of those unemployed six months or longer.

The U.S. economy got some much-needed good news this afternoon when the January jobs report showed the unemployment rate falling to its lowest level since the second month of Obama’s presidency. Every single indicator — from hourly pay to unemployment among non-college graduates — got better.

But here’s the really bad news: There are still 5.5 million people out of work for six months or longer. That’s enough to fill the state of Minnesota. And even this stat probably understates the crisis. Another 6 million people who should be in the labor force have stopped looking for work entirely. It’s safe to assume many of them dropped out of the market for jobs because they were unemployed for so long. Taken together, it’s an 11 million-person crisis. Big enough to fill Ohio.

Who are the long-term unemployed? They’re mostly the very-long-term unemployed. Of the 5.5 million people out of work for more than 27 weeks, 4 million have been out of work for more than 52 weeks, according to this fantastic report from the Pew Charitable Trusts. Here are four things we know about the very-long-term unemployed:

Read the rest here.

By SHRI NAVARATNAM

SINGAPORE—Asian stock markets rose on Monday after an upbeat jobs report from the U.S. suggested the recovery in the world’s biggest economy was picking up pace, driving cyclical stocks higher and buoying the U.S. dollar.

There was some caution in markets as Greek debt restructuring talks dragged on, keeping the euro under pressure.

Still, regional investors worked off positive cues from Wall Street after Friday’s above-view U.S. jobs data, which drove the Nasdaq Composite to an 11-year high and pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its highest close in nearly four years.

Renewed concerns recently “over the slow U.S. economy have been overturned by the latest jobs data, euro zone fears are easing, and there’s abundant liquidity being pumped in by developed nations all over the global stock markets,” said Samsung Securities analyst Park Seung-jin in Seoul. “If Greece finalizes talks with the private sector over its debt issue, there could be an even stronger rally.”

Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.2%, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 advanced 1.2%, and South Korea’s Kospi Composite tacked on 0.7%. Markets in New Zealand were closed for a public holiday.

Read the rest here.

Via Dynamic Hedge

When the markets are dropping and volatility is high, traders are well advised to disregard garden variety technical tools.  The same goes for momentum markets, which are an odd inverse of markets in panic.  Momentum is a club-footed sprinter who occasionally stumbles on resistance (and himself) on the way to higher prices — making a fool of every top caller in the process.  $SPX 1370 is the number now, and the momo crowd has it in their sights.  The reason?  There are buy stops there that must be taken out.

If and when we get to 1370 there will be a massive rotation of holders.  We’ve seen how this movie plays out a few times before.  My guess is that shorting at 1370 will look really good until it doesn’t.  Similar to how shorting 1220 looked good in 2010 until it didn’t.  See chart here.

Read the rest and see the charts here.

By SUSANNE CRAIG

Lloyd C. Blankfein, the chief of Goldman Sachs who has become a lightning rod for Wall Street critics, might seem an unlikely advocate for same-sex marriage. But his credentials — a public figure in a conservative industry — could make him a powerful voice for that cause.

The Human Rights Campaign, a national organization that promotes equal rights for gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender people, has persuaded Mr. Blankfein to be its first national corporate spokesman for same-sex marriage, an issue that will come up for a legislative vote in several states this year, including Washington and Maryland. Fred Sainz, an executive with the Human Rights Campaign, said the organization sought Mr. Blankfein, in part, because he is “an unexpected messenger.”

“Lloyd Blankfein is not someone average Americans would think is going to support marriage equality,” Mr. Sainz said. “The green visor crowd is not typically associated with socially progressive policies, and this is further proof that a diversity of Americans are coming to the same conclusion.”

Read the rest here.

Via Rortybomb

“Here’s an interesting response to the pretty good job numbers from Friday.  Tyler Cowen at marginalrevolution: “The ‘big loser’ here?: Old Keynesianism.  You really can get a recovery when the real shocks are moderately positive.  You will note, as we have been told many many times by many many sources, fiscal and monetary policy have not been extremely pro-active in recent times; in fact the stimulus has been trickling to a close.  The big winners, apart from the American public?: real business cycle theory.”

Read the rest here.

Rapid staff turnover is raising fears that the department is precariously short of seasoned professionals.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=XxFYYP8040A

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VhkDdayA4iA

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=FKe6nyORbrM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=dAFvrAbogSc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=fYL-JOBRfpw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=T8XmdQjJ7BM

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Go here to watch it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=3DGCDpP-kfQ