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Mr. Cain Thaler

Stock advice in actual English.

August payroll worse than expected, July revised downward

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The pace of U.S. private sector job growth slowed in August for the second month in a row with employers adding 91,000 positions, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 100,000 jobs. July’s private payrolls were revised down to an increase of 109,000 from the previously reported 114,000.

August’s gain was the smallest number of private jobs added since May’s disappointingly small reading of 35,000.

The ADP figures come ahead of the U.S. government’s much more comprehensive labor market report on Friday, which includes both public and private sector employment.

That report is expected to show a rise in overall nonfarm payrolls of 75,000 in August, based on a Reuters poll of analysts, and a rise in private payrolls of 105,000.

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Mortgage applications dropped off further last week

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Applications for U.S. home mortgages tumbled last week as demand for refinancing sagged for the second week in a row, an industry group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, dropped 9.6 percent in the week ended Aug 26.

The MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications slumped 12.2 percent, while the gauge of loan requests for home purchases edged up 0.9 percent after setting a 15-year low set the week before.

“Refinance application volume declined for a second week from recent highs, despite rates staying near a 10-month low, while purchase volume remained near 15-year lows,” Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s vice president of research and economics, said in a statement.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 77.8 percent of total applications from 79.8 percent.

Fixed 30-year mortgage rates averaged 4.32 percent, down from 4.39 percent the week before.

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U.S. crude supplies grow unexpectedly

LONDON (AP) — Oil prices slipped below $88 a barrel on Wednesday after a report showed U.S. crude supplies unexpectedly jumped last week, a sign demand may be weakening.

Benchmark oil for October delivery fell $1.16 to $87.74 by early afternoon European time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude rose $1.63 to settle at $88.90 on Tuesday.

In London, Brent crude for October delivery was down 35 cents at $113.67 on the ICE Futures exchange.

The American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that crude inventories rose 5.1 million barrels last week while analysts surveyed by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., had predicted a drop of 1.2 million barrels.

Inventories of gasoline dropped 3.1 million barrels last week while distillates increased 276,000 barrels, the API said.

The Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration reports its weekly supply data later Wednesday.

Signs of waning consumer sentiment also weighed on crude. The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index sank more than expected in August from July, dropping to the lowest since April 2009.

“The latest readings on consumer behavior underscore the notion that the economy still has an awfully long way to go,” energy trader and consultant The Schork Group said in a report.

In other Nymex trading for October contracts, heating oil fell 1.1 cents to $3.07 per gallon and gasoline futures slipped 0.4 cents to $2.84 per gallon. Natural gas for October delivery gained 0.1 of a cent to $3.91 per 1,000 cubic feet.

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Michigan looks to avoid defense R&D cuts

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Michigan’s $385-billion defense contracting industry — the 10th-largest in the country — likely will be spared a direct hit when the newly formed Joint Selection Committee on Deficit Reduction begins targeting potential cuts in the federal budget in September, said key federal lawmakers.

Cuts will come first to U.S. bases abroad, said U.S. Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee. The last to be cut will be research and development of weapons and other equipment aimed at the post-Afghan war military. And R&D is one of the biggest items Michigan sells to the defense industry, especially with the Army’s key research and development arms located here.

“The focus is going to be on a new ground combat vehicle with new technologies on it, and that’s where our great strength is,” Levin said.

Defense, homeland security and related businesses comprise one of the few growth areas in Michigan’s economy.

“There’s always going to be a percent of the budget spent on defense and homeland security,” said U.S. Rep. Candice Miller, a Harrison Township Republican. “It’s not as though border security is going to go away. If anything, we are going to continue to ratchet it up.”

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Metro Detroit remains the worst housing market in nation

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Metro Detroit home prices were down 6.6% annually through June, as the region continues to struggle in its position as America’s weakest market, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Yet, prices gained a seasonal boost, rising 2.2% in June as compared to May data for the metro area, according to the data released today.

While the rest of the country returned to 2003 home pricing levels, metro Detroit and Las Vegas are the only two major metropolitan areas where prices were at pre-2000 levels.

The seasonal rise should “wear off in the fall” and prices will likely drop again as demand wanes, said Patrick Newport, U.S. economist with IHS Global Insight.

Newport said in a statement that seasonally adjusted prices were down in 11 cities.

“Detroit, where prices have dropped nearly 50% since peaking in late 2005, remains, by far, the weakest market,” he said. “Detroit avoided a big run-up in housing prices during the boom years, but was hit hard by the recession.”

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Libyan freedom fighters demand Qaddafi forces surrender

TRIPOLI, Libya – Libyan rebels pledged Tuesday to launch an assault within days on Muammar Qaddafi’s hometown, the ousted strongman’s last major bastion of support.

The rebels and NATO said that Qaddafi loyalists were negotiating the fate of Sirte, a heavily militarized city some 250 miles east of the capital, Tripoli.

Mustafa Abdel Jalil, the head of the rebels’ National Transitional Council, said that negotiations with forces in Sirte would end Saturday after the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr, when the rebels would “act decisively and militarily.”

We can’t wait more than that,” he told reporters in the eastern city of Benghazi. “We seek and support any efforts to enter these places peacefully. At the end, it might be decided militarily. I hope it will not be the case.”

Col. Roland Lavoie, a NATO spokesman, said it’s possible Sirte might surrender without a fight.

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Justice department restructures after Operation F&F

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Acting ATF Director Kenneth Melson has been reassigned to a lesser post in the Justice Department and the U.S. attorney for Arizona was also pushed out Tuesday as fallout from Operation Fast and Furious reached new heights.

Melson’s step down from his role as head of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives to the position of senior adviser on forensic science in the Department of Justice’s Office of Legal Programs is effective by close of business Tuesday, administration officials announced. U.S. Attorney for the District of Minnesota B. Todd Jones will replace Melson.

U.S. Attorney for Arizona Dennis Burke, one of the officials closely tied to Fast and Furious, is also a casualty in a shakeup tied to the botched gun-running program. Burke was on the hot seat last week with congressional investigators and, according to several sources, got physically sick during questioning and could not finish his session.

The purge of those responsible for the firearms trafficking scandal continued as new documents reveal a deeper involvement of federal agencies beyond ATF.

In Phoenix, Assistant U.S. Attorney Emory Hurley, who oversaw Fast and Furious on a day-to-day basis, was reassigned from the criminal to civil division. Also in Phoenix, three out of the four whistleblowers involved in the case have been reassigned to new positions outside Arizona. Two are headed to Florida, one to South Carolina.

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Cameco Corp. goes forward with offer to acquire Hathor

SASKATOON, SASKATCHEWAN–(Marketwire -08/30/11)- ALL AMOUNTS ARE STATED IN CDN $ (UNLESS NOTED)

Cameco (TSX: CCO.TO – News) (NYSE: CCJ – News) today announced that it has commenced its offer to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Hathor Exploration Ltd. (TSX: HAT.TO – News) for cash consideration of $3.75 per share in a transaction which values the fully diluted share capital of Hathor at approximately $520 million(1) (the “Offer”).

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Bill Gross says he feels like a jackass – basically

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Treasuries rose before a report that economists said will show U.S. residential real-estate prices dropped. Bill Gross, who runs the world’s largest bond fund, said it was a mistake to cut his Treasury holdings.

U.S. government debt has returned 2.58 percent in August, the most since December 2008, Bank of America Merrill Lynch data show. Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Gross said in a Financial Times interview that it had been a “mistake to bet so heavily against the price of U.S. government debt.” Treasuries slid yesterday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said last week the economy isn’t weak enough to warrant immediate stimulus.

“Watching the data continues to confirm this dip is going to lead to at least a quarter of negative growth,” said Peter Chatwell, a fixed-income strategist at Credit Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank in London. “Then I think the market will be happy to assume that some further stimulus from the Fed does indeed come its way, and that will be bond supportive, particularly the long end.”

Benchmark 10-year yield dropped four basis points to 2.22 percent at 10:29 a.m. in London, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. The 2.125 percent note maturing in August 2021 rose 3/8, or $3.75 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 6/32.

The rate has fallen 57 basis points, or 0.57 percentage point, since July 29.

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Home prices rise in U.S. cities for 3rd month

WASHINGTON (AP) — Spring buying pushed home prices up for a third straight month in most major U.S. cities in June. But the housing market remains shaky, and further price declines are expected this year.

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index shows prices increased in June from May in 19 of the 20 cities tracked. A separate figure shows prices rose 3.6 percent in the April-June quarter from the previous quarter. Those numbers aren’t adjusted for seasonal factors.

Over the past 12 months, home prices have declined in all 20 cities after adjusting for seasonal factors.

Chicago, Minneapolis Washington and Boston posted the biggest monthly increases. Metro areas hit hardest by the housing crisis, including Las Vegas and Phoenix, reported small seasonal increases.

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Republicans take aim at regulation

WASHINGTON (AP) — The House Republican agenda this fall will focus on repealing environmental and labor regulations that GOP lawmakers say are driving up the cost of doing business and discouraging employers from hiring new workers.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., says in a memo to his fellow Republicans that as soon as Congress returns to Washington next week he will start bringing up bills to repeal or restrict federal regulations. He also said the House would also act on a small business tax deduction.

The memo was released Monday.

The GOP approach to job creation comes as President Barack Obama prepares to announce after Labor Day a broad jobs package expected to include tax cuts, infrastructure projects and help for the unemployed.

“By pursuing a steady repeal of job-destroying regulations, we can help lift the cloud of uncertainty hanging over small and large employers alike, empowering them to hire more workers,” Cantor said in his memo.

He said that in the first week after Congress returns from its August recess the House will vote on a bill preventing the National Labor Relations Board from restricting where an employer can locate in the United States.

The bill is in response to an NLRB lawsuit against Boeing Co. claiming that the manufacturer violated labor law in opening up a new airplane production line in South Carolina. The agency alleged that Boeing was punishing workers in Washington state for past strikes and wants the company to return the work to Washington. Boeing denies the claims.

The next week the House will consider a bill to delay implementation of new Environmental Protection Agency emission and air pollution rules for utility plants until the full impact of the Obama administration’s regulatory agenda has been studied. Cantor said the new rules could drive up electricity bills in many parts of the country by 12 to 24 percent.

Also on the agenda are new EPA emission rules for boilers that Cantor said could put 200,000 jobs at risk and similar regulations for cement and coal ash.

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Argentina judge overules tax agency on Bunge

Bunge Ltd. (BG), Argentina’s second- biggest corn exporter, must be returned to the Argentine tax agency’s grain exporters’ registry, an appeals court said.

The tax agency, known as AFIP, must “refrain from suspending or excluding,” White Plains, New York-based Bunge from its registry, federal judges Ignacio Velez Funes, Luis Martinez and Roque Rebak said in a ruling dated yesterday. AFIP didn’t give Bunge enough time to defend itself against its exclusion from the registry in May, the judges said.

Exclusion from the registry means the company lost certain sales tax breaks within Argentina and had limited access to permits required to transport grain. AFIP has said Bunge underpaid about $252 million in taxes between 2007 and 2009.

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Oil companies vie for Libya; existing infrastructure intact

Prepare for several hundred thousand barrels a day flowing out of Libya, in a matter of weeks (read a few months, in realistic expectations).

Do not tell me the market has priced this in; everyone was thinking Libya would be a ten year bloody war with zero output from the country only a matter of weeks ago. If oil actually flows from Libya’s ports, crude prices go down. Saudi output offsets are irrelevant, as everyone will be calmer about net production capabilities.

(CNN) — International oil companies are jockeying for advantage in the new Libya, buoyed by news that damage to the energy infrastructure appears to be slight. But they remain anxious about a lack of security and are holding off sending workers back into the country.

National Transitional Council officials report little damage to oil export terminals in eastern Libya (at Ras Lanuf and El Brega) and have appealed to employees to return to work. The two terminals handle the bulk of oil exports pumped from the Sirte basin. But the rebels have also begun to use, with help from Qatar, a terminal at Tobruk.

The NTC official in charge of oil and the economy, Ali Tarhouni, told Reuters news agency Thursday that he expects production can reach 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day within a few weeks, and return to the prewar level of 1.6 million within a year.

Some industry analysts believe that is optimistic. Sources at Italian oil company Eni (the largest producer in Libya) forecast production at 750,000 barrels by sometime early next year. Energy consultants Wood Mackenzie estimate it will take three years for production to recover to the prewar level. But that would depend on the prompt return of foreign workers.

In a recent report, Wood Mackenzie estimated “six months will be required for NOC (Libya’s state-owned oil firm) staff, international companies and foreign workers to return and re-establish supply lines and assess and repair damaged infrastructure.”

Libya has always relied on foreign expertise to exploit its oil, but expatriate workers may be reluctant to return before the violence — and the threat of abduction — abates. The waters off Tripoli, where heavy gunbattles continued Thursday, contain important fields like the Bahr Essalam. But in the east, too, there are still pockets of fighters loyal to deposed leader Moammar Gadhafi and there are ongoing clashes.

Spanish oil company Repsol said last month that its assets in Libya were intact, but said staff would only return to the country when fighting ceased and it would take at least four weeks to resume production. Marathon Oil, based in Houston, said it has had preliminary talks with the National Transitional Council about restoring production when the situation stabilizes.

The worst scenario for the NTC — and the oil companies — is a prolonged campaign of sabotage by opponents of Libya’s new rulers. Wood McKenzie noted that Gadhafi supporters sabotaged the pumping station that moved oil from the Sarir and Messia fields early in the conflict and said: “Libya’s oil fields are located in the vast, remote Saharan desert, making them impossible to defend from attack.” Other analysts point out that only now, after a prolonged insurgency, is Iraq’s oil output recovering to pre-invasion levels.

My favorite part is at the end of the section I highlighted, where some guy suggests that the oil fields being located in a desert makes them impossible to defend.

Sure it does…

More like, it makes it easier for NATO to carpet bomb anything that gets close to them. You’re nuts if you think the U.S. isn’t watching those fields intently. We’re not going to let some useless Libyan ex-regimists pull another Kuwait.

Can you say “dead zone”?

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Uranium production market remains soft

NEW YORK, NY–(Marketwire -08/25/11)- The uranium market has slowed to a halt in recent weeks amid continued uncertainty surrounding the global nuclear energy industry. Meanwhile, uranium producers are posting lackluster results as demand for the radioactive material slows. The Bedford Report examines the outlook for companies in the Uranium Sector and provides investment research on Cameco Corporation (NYSE: CCJ – News) (TSX: CCO.TO – News) and Uranium Resources, Inc. (NASDAQ: URRE – News).Access to the full company reports can be found at:

The spot price for uranium has declined 24 percent since the week before the March 11 earthquake and tsunami damaged Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s Fukushima Dai-Ichi power station. According to Ux Consulting Co., “A number of market participants have indicated that recent market activity has been very limited… This lack of activity has been described as the market looking like a ghost town.”

“Some activity still proceeds as the spot price floats near the $50 level,” Ux said. “Several spot transactions have been posted over the past week, most involving smaller quantities.”

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Chinese corn import laws increasingly define agriculture trade

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A legal battle between two of the world’s most powerful agribusiness companies is shedding light about the growing role of China in agricultural commodities markets.

Syngenta, the Switzerland-based agrochemicals producer, is suing New York-listed Bunge, one of the world’s largest food traders, for refusing to accept a type of its biotech corn. Bunge – the “B” of the “ABCD” group of companies that includes ADM, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus and control agriculture trading – refuses to buy from farmers growing Syngenta’s new Agrisure Viptera corn because it has not been approved for sale in China.

Syngenta said the action was illegal and that its new corn is approved for sale into “major” export destinations, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, the Philippines, Korea and Taiwan. But, it acknowledged, not in China.

The lack of approval for sale into China would not have been a problem only a couple of years ago, as Beijing was self-sufficient in corn. But China has recently become a big importer. And Bunge said on Tuesday it was expecting that imports would “grow significantly this year”, one of the strongest statements yet from a trading house about the issue.

The US Department of Agriculture estimates that China imported 1.5m tonnes of corn in the 2010-11 season, which is about to end, the highest since 1994-95. For most of the 1990s and early 2000s, China’s corn imports were negligible, at just a few tonnes. For 2011-12, the USDA forecasts imports of 2m tonnes. But private sector analysts are far more bullish, predicting imports anywhere between 5m-10m tonnes, the biggest ever.

The legal battle between Syngenta and Bunge reveals that the trading house believes that imports from China would grow much more than the level suggested by the USDA. It also confirms an open secret in the industry: all the ABCD companies are battling to establish themselves as Beijing’s favourite party to carry the corn deals. Until now, Louis Dreyfus of France has been a leading seller, but Cargill and Bunge are battling to keep pace.

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John Thain buying up CIT shares

Former Merrill Lynch CEO, engineering student, and $75,000 Persian rug connoisseur John Thain has been openly buying up shares in his new company. Unfortunately, Ken Lewis is not around to buy this one from him for an undefinable premium.

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The recent woes that have troubled the market haven’t got the head executive at CIT Group worried. He’s plunking down cash and buying up shares of the commercial lender.

On Tuesday, Chairman and Chief Executive John A. Thain bought 40,000 shares of CIT (ticker: CIT) for nearly $1.2 million, an average of $29.91 each. That same day CIT stock hit a 52-week intraday low.

This is his first open buy on record since the company declared bankruptcy, restructured and resumed trading in 2009. Following this transaction, he directly holds 319,575 shares of the lending company…

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Foreclosures made up 31% of 2Q home sales

WASHINGTON (AP) — Foreclosures made up roughly one-third of all home sales this spring. While that’s a smaller share of sales from the previous quarter, it’s six times the percentage of foreclosures in a healthy housing market.

Foreclosure sales, which include homes purchased after they received a notice of default or that were repossessed by lenders, accounted for 31 percent of the market in the April-June quarter, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.

The share of the market would likely have been larger this spring if not for a state and federal investigation into faulty paperwork by banks and servicers. The probe has led many banks to delay foreclosure sales. Once that is complete, foreclosures will likely surge later this year.

As a slice of all home purchases, foreclosure sales peak two years ago at 37.4 percent. In the second quarter, they declined from 36 percent in the January-March period.

In all, 265,087 homes in some stage of foreclosure or owned by banks were sold in the second quarter, down 11 percent from the same period a year ago. Sales of all other types of homes also declined, according to RealtyTrac’s figures, which differ from other home-sales estimates.

Bank-owned homes, which are sold after being repossessed, accounted for nearly 19 percent of all sales. That’s unchanged from the previous quarter.

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France unveils austerity plan and cuts growth

PARIS (AP) — President Nicolas Sarkozy’s government has bowed to economic reality, admitting its growth forecasts were overly rosy and announcing an euro11 billion ($16 billion) austerity package in a bid to ensure that France doesn’t miss a vital pledge to cut its deficit.

The government unveiled the package of spending cuts and tax increases two weeks after France came under fire by investors who feared the country’s high debt and deficit levels, as well as its role bailing out weaker European partners like Greece.

Prime Minister Francois Fillon said the austerity package is vital for France to keep its pledge on deficit reduction and maintain its triple A credit rating.

France has not managed to balance its budget in three decades, and Sarkozy has staked his credibility on hitting a series of deficit targets over the next three years.

Fillon blamed the international economic slowdown for France’s failure to achieve the 2 percent growth this year that Finance Minister Francois Baroin said only last week was still within reach.

The country now expects to grow only 1.75 percent this year, and the same amount in 2012. The government had built its 2012 budget, a critical election year for Sarkozy, on a target of 2.25 percent growth.

Sarkozy’s austerity package consists largely of closing tax loopholes and scraping deductions for the country’s largest companies. But it also includes a euro200 million tax hike on the country’s wealthiest taxpayers via a 3 percent “exceptional contribution” on incomes over euro500,000.

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Homeowner groups try to pull legal chutzpa

Homeowner’s Associations are apparently trying to supercede the law and claim vacant properties from banks who aren’t foreclosing. While I would be irrate if a vacant property was destroying my property value, on the flip side homeowner associations are obnoxious, super legal entities that exist to make the lives of other people hell and usurp property rights without the tedious necessity of putting themselves on the line.

I really don’t see how they have the legal authority to do this.

Members of the Vintage East Condominium Association in Miami Beach got tired of waiting for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) to foreclose on unit 9, so they sued the bank in February to take control of the property.

In June, more than four years after the owner stopped making payments, a judge ruled that JPMorgan lost its claim to the $144,000 mortgage. The apartment is now on the market for $87,500, and the association may stave off insolvency with proceeds from the sale and a new owner who pays monthly dues, said Jane Losson, a board member at the complex. Four of the 11 other owners at the property are also behind on dues.

“I find it an outrage that the bank had decided to do nothing and the other owners got stuck,” Losson, who’s had her Vintage East condo since 2004, said in a telephone interview. “If we get this unit sold, we’ll have a little money.”

Financially troubled condo associations are taking banks to court as foreclosure delays enable delinquent homeowners to stay in their buildings for years, often without paying dues that keep boards running. The groups start by pressuring lenders to speed up home seizures and take over payment of the monthly fees. In extreme situations, like the Vintage East case, associations may force banks to give up rights to the property.

“The lenders are stalling foreclosures,” Ben Solomon, the Miami Beach attorney for the Vintage East association, said in a telephone interview. “Our complaints say the banks abandoned their interest and either need to accept responsibility for the title or walk away.”

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Home prices drop another 5.9%

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U.S. home prices fell 5.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the biggest drop since 2009, as foreclosures added to the inventory of properties for sale, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Prices declined 0.6 percent from the prior three months, the Washington-based agency said today in a report. In June, prices retreated 4.3 percent from a year earlier, while increasing 0.9 percent from the previous month.

Foreclosures are boosting the supply of properties on the market and undercutting the confidence of homebuyers, sapping demand even as mortgage rates tumble to near-record lows. The U.S. inventory of homes for sale averaged 3.7 million during the second quarter, the highest since the third quarter of 2010, data from the National Association of Realtors show. The mortgages on 6.5 million U.S. homes had late payments or were in foreclosure in June, according to Lender Processing Services Inc. in Jacksonville, Florida.

“Foreclosures water down home prices because banks want to get rid of properties as fast as they can,” said Patrick Newport, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “The key number driving foreclosures is the unemployment rate, and we saw that worsen in the second quarter.”

Today’s FHFA report measures changes in real estate values using repeat data on individual properties with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. It doesn’t include a dollar value for homes. The U.S. median home price was $171,900 in the second quarter, according to NAR.

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