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Monthly Archives: November 2012

The Aussie Dollar Falls as the RBA Sells Currency to Foreign Central Banks

“Australia’s dollar declined against most of its major peers after the nation’s Reserve Bank said it increased sales of the currency last month to a category of buyers that includes foreign central banks.

Demand for the so-called Aussie was limited after an Israeli air strike on the Gaza strip and signs of a global slowdown reduced demand for riskier assets. Australian bonds rose, sending the benchmark 10-year yield to the lowest level in almost one month. The Australian and New Zealand dollars rallied versus the yen after Japan’s opposition leader Shinzo Abe called for unlimited central bank easing until deflation is defeated in the world’s third-largest economy.

“There will likely be more chatter that the RBA is perhaps conducting off-market, central bank-to-central bank transactions,” said Emma Lawson, a Sydney-based foreign- exchange strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd. “The Aussie is considered to have been strong due to these market transactions for investors buying our government debt. If it’s being conducted off-market, then perhaps that takes some pressure off the upside for the currency.” ”

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Moody’s Places a Negative Outlook on the U.K. Given its Slowing Economy

“The U.K.’s top Aaa rating will be assessed at the beginning of next year as the nation’s economy slows amid government efforts to reduce deficits and Europe’s debt crisis, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

The economic recovery in the U.K. is likely to be slower than forecast as the private and public sectors reduce their debt loads, Moody’s said late yesterday in a report. The government’s Autumn Statement, scheduled to be released in December, may reveal “the likely speed of fiscal consolidation, the growth outlook and, most importantly, the assurances offered that the debt trajectory will stabilize and start to decline within the rating horizon,” Moody’s said.”

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The Euro Zone Falls Into a Second Recession

“The euro-area economy succumbed to a recession for the second time in four years as governments imposed tougher budget cuts and leaders struggled to contain the debt crisis that broke out in October 2009.

Gross domestic product in the 17-nation bloc slipped 0.1 percent in the third quarter after a 0.2 percent decline in the previous three months, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. The result matched the median forecast in a Bloomberg News surveyof 44 economists, as unexpected strength in Germany and France was outweighed by contractions elsewhere.

Europe’s economic malaise is deepening as governments across the region impose budget cuts to narrow their fiscal deficits. Spain and Cyprus this year joined the list of countries seeking external aid, following Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Unions across the region have held protests against austerity measures.”

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Hulbert: Meaning of 200-day Average’s Violation

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — The stock market’s 200-day moving average has now been decisively broken.

According to many technical analysts, that means that the market’s major trend has turned down. But how good a track record does this trend-following indicator really have?

Read the rest here.


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Old Man Buffet Discloses New Investments in $DE, $WB, & $PCP

Buffet also made changes to some of their holdings:

“Berkshire added to its existing investments in Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), General Motors (GM) DirecTV (DTV), DaVita (DVA), National Oilwell Varco (NOV) and Viacom (VIA).

Berkshire also reduced its stakes in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Kraft Foods (KRFT), Lee Enterprises (LEE), Procter & Gamble (PG) and US Bancorp (USB). It sold off 5.3 million shares of CVS Caremark (CVS).”

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FEMA Holds a Fire Sale on Disaster Shelters Moments Before Frankenstorm Sandy Rolled In

Perhaps moments was a bit to much, but none the less your tax dollars go to pay these people. The thought that they did this given all the technology to predict what might happen is a SERIOUS FUCKING PROBLEM.

I mean insurance companies had models telling them years ago that storms would slam into the east coast over the coming years to decades; this prompted them as early as 2004 to start dropping the maximum amount of hurricane and flood insurance policies all up and down the east coast.

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CEOs Wrong To Promote Dangerous Budget Cuts, 350 Economists Say

More than 80 high-profile CEOs just penned a letter calling for deep budget cuts to avert to reduce the deficit, but hundreds of economists warned on Wednesday that such austerity measures are medieval medicine that will exacerbate the economy’s underlying ailment: high unemployment.

On Wednesday, 350 economists, many left-leaning, signed a letter calling for “jobs and growth, not austerity.” The letter, written by Robert Borosage and Roger Hickey, co-directors of the Institute for America’s Future, and Robert Kuttner, founder of The American Prospect, emphasizes that mitigating long-term unemployment is the key to ensuring higher economic growth, lower unemployment and lower deficits.

“The budget hawks have the sequence backwards…. Budget cuts in a deep slump lead only to a deeper slump,” the economists said. “We need jobs first. With recovery, deficit reduction will come of its own accord thanks to increased revenues in an improving economy.”

Economists that signed the letter include Jared Bernstein, a former Obama economic adviser; Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan; and former Labor Secretary Robert Reich. Paul Krugman’s wife and collaborator Robin Wells signed the letter, but Krugman himself did not, even though he has madesimilar arguments in his pieces for The New York Times.”

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Millions More Americans In Poverty Than Previously Estimated: Census Bureau

“WASHINGTON — A different way of calculating America’s poor by taking into account medical costs and work-related expenses finds a higher total than the government’s official count.

This measure is aimed at providing a fuller picture of poverty. It found there are 49.7 million poor people in the country – or 16.1 percent of the population. That compares with the 46.2 million, or 15 percent, as reported in September in the Census Bureau’s official count.

According to the newly developed measure, those more likely to live in poverty are people 65 or older, urbanites and Hispanics – the result of medical expenses and higher living costs in cities.

California had the highest share of poor people, followed by Arizona and Florida. In the official tally, it’s Mississippi, New Mexico and Arizona.”

Full article & slideshow

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Senate Delays Vote On Bill That Would Banish Financial Regulation To Cost-Benefit Analysis Hell

“Financial reformers have won a small battle in their fight with Wall Street over financial regulation, but they’re still at risk of losing the war.

It appears that heavy pressure from an unusual coalition of financial regulators and reform advocates has convinced the Senate Committee On Homeland Security And Governmental Affairs to delay a vote on a controversial bill, the Independent Agency Regulatory Analysis Act (S. 3468), that would give the White House unprecedented power to frustrate independent regulatory agencies trying to make new rules, including rules meant to prevent another financial crisis.

Homeland Security Committee Chairman Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) reportedly had planned to push the bill out of committee on Thursday for a quick vote on the Senate floor. But it is not on the agenda now, according to a Lieberman spokeswoman. The bill is not dead, however; it has merely been delayed. And other, potentially more dangerous, bills designed to gut financial reform are still lurking in Congress.

“I would expect them to keep pushing it,” said Marcus Stanley, policy director of Americans for Financial Reform, a nonprofit advocacy group. “But there was a tactical victory won in pushing this timing back.”

The bipartisan IARAA, supported by the bank lobby and sponsored by Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Mark Warner (D-Va.), gives the president authority to force regulators to jump through 13 different analytical hoops when writing new rules. Regulations that might affect the economy by $100 million or more per year have to go through even more stringent analysis.”

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How to Make Money With Mary Jane

“Although federal law prohibits the sale or possession of marijuana, Massachusetts last week joined the ranks of states — 18 plus Washington, D.C. — that allow its use for people suffering from chronic illnesses like cancer, HIV/AIDS, multiple sclerosis and epilepsy. In Washington and Colorado, meanwhile, voters passed an initiative to allow pot for recreational use.

Those changes have kickstarted a small but fast-growing medical-marijuana industry, estimated to be worth about $1.7 billion as of 2011, according to See Change Strategy, an independent financial-analysis firm that specializes in new markets. In Colorado alone, sales topped $181 million in 2010, and the business employed 4,200 state-licensed workers, says Aaron Smith, executive director of the National Cannabis Industry Association , a nonprofit trade group that campaigns for marijuana’s federal legalization.

In addition to profiting itself from growing and selling marijuana, the industry benefits a slew of other businesses, such as insurers, lawyers and agricultural-equipment firms, experts say. “Call it the ‘green rush,’” says Derek Peterson, CEO of GrowOp Technology, an online retailer of hydroponics — products used in the cultivation of indoor plants — and a subsidiary of OTC stock Terra Tech TRTC +2.86% . “The industry is expanding, and there are all kinds of investment opportunities.” “

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[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-ADAr9-Aqs 450 300]

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CASHIN: The Way The Markets Are Behaving In The Last Hour Of The Day Is Worrying


“Art Cashin’s most recent market commentary provides a bleak assessment of the last-hour selloffs that have been occurring frequently since the election.

Cashin reaches into his archives for a snippet he wrote back in November of 2007 that remains very relevant to investors today:

Longtime readers know of the value we place in final hour action. Stock trading is a bit like playing poker. Throughout the session you can bluff and posture revealing only part of your intentions, hoping to confuse your adversaries. Your only liability is the clock. If you have not accomplished your goal by the time the bell rings, you have failed.

Therefore, old traders see the final minutes of trading as truth time. The bluffing and posturing is cast aside. Folks do what they need to do to get the trade on the tape. Everything up until then is a stage play. That’s why the action in the final thirty minutes both yesterday and Friday is of concern to old fogeys.

Cashin seems bullish on stocks given this assessment, and his advice to investors is to “stay alert and very nimble.” ”


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