Mis or dis information has a funny way of making into your head. Here are some interesting facts that may contradict what you believe have occurred in relation to the stimulus package.
Comments »Monthly Archives: September 2012
$KORS Insiders Look to Dump 23mn Shares
$HPQ to Pink Slip an Additional 2k Employees
How Elections Influence the Markets
“One of our favorite cycle tools for many years is the Presidential Cycle Pattern. I first started writingabout this topic back in 1994, and have used it extensively for both macro and micro analysis in our newsletter and our Daily Edition.
The basic idea is that there is a relationship between the political calendar and the movements of the stock market
. Since the U.S. has a regular 4-year election cycle dictated by the Constitution, we can examine the behavior of each four year period to find similarities and differences.
I do this by taking the SP500 data and chopping it up into 4-year chunks of time. I prefer to use Nov. 1 of election years as the start point rather than January 1, since the market tends to react to whoever gets elected as soon as the results are known. Usually that is right away (the hanging chads episode of 2000 was a rare exception).”
Comments »Should We Expect a Flash Crash in the Treasury Market ?
Open Table for MDs: A Better Service for Your Busy Life
“This is my personal vendetta against the broken healthcare system,” Ari Tulla tells me, mid-pitch, while standing on the sidewalk after a recentTechCrunch event in Redwood City. He’s talking about BetterDoctor, a startup he co-founded last year after struggling to find the best, local physicians in San Francisco during a series of family medical emergencies. Ari left his position as the head of Nokia’s App Studios not long thereafter, teaming up with Nokia’s Chief Architect Tapio Tolvanen to pursue BetterDoctor.”
Comments »Say Goodbye to Coral Reefs
Gapping up and Down This Morning
Gapping Up
DB +3.3%, JASO +3.2%, RBS +2.4%, RIG +2.4%, RIO +2.4%, TTM +0.7%,
APKT +1.6, KFT +0.9% , NBS +1.4%, PPHM +6.7%, CTIC +4.3%, TSO +2.1%,
RIG +2.4% , TLM +3%
Gapping Down
KORS -3.6%, AIG -2.4%, BUD -1.6%, ASML -1.6%, NVS -1.2%,
BUD -1.6%, DEO -1.0%, SNY -1.2%, AZN -1%,
Comments »Upgrades and Downgrades This Morning
AMD, AMGN, AAPL, ARIA, AZN, BIIB, CELG, DELL, ERIC, FITB, INTC, IP, ITRI, PHG, LULU, NRG, PNRA, PNC, PGR, SNY, STX, S, WFC, RF,
Comments »In Play and On the Wires
Investors are Scooping Up Raw Land
“(Reuters) – From the outskirts of Las Vegas to the coast of California, stretches of undeveloped land in some of the most depressed housing markets in the U.S. are in high demand.
Money managers such as BlackRock Inc, hedge fund Angelo Gordon & Co and real estate investment firm Starwood Capital, are beginning to cash-in on so-called shovel-ready residential land-tracts with most of the pre-construction and zoning approvals already in place.
The investors snapped up land on the cheap in bankruptcy proceedings, from cash-strapped home developers and banks that seized the properties after foreclosing on them when builders ran out of money.
Now they are re-selling the land, often for returns of more than 20 percent on their initial investment, in the latest sign of a modest recovery in the U.S. housing market. Other investors, meanwhile, are looking to partner with homebuilders to develop the tracts.”
Comments »$JPM: The Floodgates Are Open, Markets Can Rally for Another 6 Months
” We think the positive environment for risk assets can and will last over the next 3-6 months. And this is not because of a strong economy, as we foresee below potential global growth over the next year and are below consensus expectations. Overall, we continue to see data that signal that world growth is in a bottoming process. With most countries having now reported, global GDP looks to have expanded at a tepid 1.9% pace in 2Q12, 1.3%-point below what would simply be trend.”
Comments »$AAPL Expected to Release a Smaller MacBook with Cool Innovations
“Apple is prepared to announce a lot more than just a new iPhone this week, according to Aaron Lee and Joseph Tsai at DigiTimes.
Citing upstream supply chain sources, Tsai and Lee report Apple has begun mass shipping of new iMacs, as well as 13-inch MacBook Pros with retina displays. Retina display is Apple-speak for super high resolution screens.
This isn’t the first time we’ve heard about these products. At the end of August we heard about a smaller MacBook Pro with retina. Last week read reports Apple was preparing for a refresh of the iMac.”
Comments »Does The Fed Have a New Secret Bazooka ?
“On The IOER and Hilsenrath
Bernanke has to do something this week. Most pundits are suggesting it will be more LSAPs (QE). I have trouble with this scenario. To be of any benefit, a new QE would have to be for $600Bn. If QE3 were to be only a paltry $200Bn, it would be received very poorly. I don’t see Ben shooting off a pop-gun this week. He would be better off doing nothing, than something that will fall flat. I think he knows that.”
Comments »Stagnant Incomes Signal Restraint in Spending by U.S. Consumers
“Wages are stagnating as the job market cools, restraining the consumer spending that is needed to sustain the U.S. economic recovery.
Average hourly earnings were little changed in August from the prior month and up 1.7 percent from a year earlier, matching the smallest gain since records began in 2007, the Labor Department reported last week. Payroll growth slowed to 96,000 last month, while theunemployment rate fell as more people left the labor force.”
Comments »Swaps Showing 99% Chance of QE and ZIRP Until 2015+
“Just six months ago, money market traders expected the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by the end of 2013. Now, they see borrowing costs staying at record lows for about three more years as the economic outlook worsens.
Bond market measures from overnight index swaps, which indicate no increase in the federal funds rate until mid-2015, to a 62 percent decline in a measure of volatility in government bonds signal that rates will stay near zero for longer. The gapbetween two- and five-year Treasury yields, which decreases when traders expect benchmark rates to remain subdued, is more than 50 percent narrower than its average since 2008.
Investor expectations for sluggish growth and low inflation remain intact even though the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which triggered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, happened four years ago. While the economy expanded in the second quarter, the unemployment rateremained above 8 percent for the 43rd-straight month in August.”
Comments »The U.S. Treasury Looks to Sell $18 Billion Worth of AIG Position Reducing Tax Payer Risk
“The U.S. Treasury is offering to sell $18 billion of American International Group Inc. (AIG) shares in a transaction that is likely to cut taxpayers’ stake in the firm to below 50 percent for the first time since its 2008 bailout.
The insurer plans to buy back as much as $5 billion of the shares and Citigroup Inc., Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are managing the sale, the Treasury said yesterday in a statement.”
Comments »World Markets Wait on a German Federal Court This Week
On Wednesday the 12th, a German federal court will decide on the use of 500 billion euros as a part of the ESM. This decision could be a make or break scenario for the euro and the ECB bond buying plan .
Comments »Black Gold is Flat to Up on Stimulus Expectations
The Aussie Dollar Falls on Growth Concerns
“The Australian dollar retreated from a two-week high after unexpected declines in domestichome- loan approvals and China’s imports damped the outlook for economic growth.
The so-called Aussie also weakened for the first time in three days after data showed industrial output rose by the least in three years in China, Australia’s biggest trading partner. The New Zealand currency, nicknamed the kiwi, held onto a three- day gain on speculation the Federal Reserve will add stimulus as early as this week after a Sept. 7 report showed U.S. payrolls rose less than projected in August.”
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