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Monthly Archives: March 2012

Identity Theft Shifts to Kids Under 18

“Axton Betz had just rented her first off-campus apartment in West Lafayette, Ind. when the power company told her she needed to pay a $100 deposit to turn on the electricity. Betz, who was 19 at the time, assumed they required the large deposit because she had no credit history. But, for safe measure, she requested a copy of her credit report. “I thought it would be just one page on student loans,” Betz says. Instead, she found 10 pages of defaulted credit cards – showing someone had been using her identity since she was 11 years old.

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Stealing social security numbers to buy cars, apply for credit and obtain driver’s licenses has now shifted to a new demographic: those under the age of 18. Credit companies and other firms are responding offering monthly services promising identity-theft protection for children. According to the Federal Trade Commission, there is a market for this:  19,000 child identity theft complaints were reported in 2009, the most recent data available, up 217 percent since 2003. What’s more, a study done by the Carnegie Mellon CyLab showed children are 51 times more likely to have their identity stolen than adults. And while most of these stolen IDs are used by undocumented immigrants or organized crime rings, there’s also the chance a child’s own parents could use their kid’s digits, says Bo Holland, CEO of AllClear ID, an identity protection company.

Prompted by those numbers, on Monday Equifax launched a family plan that keeps tabs on the identities of two adults and up to four children. The service, which costs $29.95 a month, alerts parents by e-mail or text message whenever someone tries to use any of the family’s IDs. It also scans the Internet for personal information found on websites and monitors the adults’ files from the three credit bureaus. Earlier this month, AllClear ID debuted a free ID theft mobile app for the iPhone and iPad that lets a parent make sure her child’s identity hasn’t been compromised. (There’s also an option for daily monitoring, which costs $14.95 a month.) And AllClear formed a partnership with the National Cyber-Forensics and Training Alliance to let consumers see the reports of stolen data that, before now, were only shared with companies….”

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House Democrats Unveil Their Budget Plan Increasing the Deficit by $6 Trillion

“House Democrats on Monday night introduced their 2013 budget plan to compete with the Republicans’ proposal on the chamber floor this week.

Sponsored by Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), senior Democrat on the House Budget Committee, the $3.6 trillion proposal is not expected to pass, but nonetheless provides the Democrats with a comprehensive plan from which to distinguish their policy priorities from those of Republicans this election year.

The proposal adopts much of President Obama’s job-creation agenda, including tens of billions of dollars for near-term stimulus spending on infrastructure and other federal programs, while keeping Medicare and other entitlement benefits largely intact. The budget adds $6 trillion to deficits over 10 years, compared to $6.4 trillion for the president. It contains $643 billion less in spending, and $219 billion less in revenue.

 

Van Hollen said his proposal “stands in clear contrast” to the GOP bill, which the Democrats have attacked as a giveaway to the wealthy at the expense of seniors and the middle class.

“This budget will reduce the deficit in a balanced and credible way, making difficult choices while providing investments that help create jobs now and build an even stronger economy for the future,” Van Hollen said in a statement. “But unlike the Republican budget — which ends the Medicare guarantee while providing tax breaks to millionaires — we ask the very wealthy and special interests to share responsibility for reducing the deficit.”

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Fed’s Bullard: Policy ‘Too Loose’ Across Global Economy

“The Federal Reserve doesn’t need to jolt the economy with a third round of liquidity-inducing quantitative easing (QE3), as the inflationary effects could be damaging, says Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard.

Under quantitative easing, the Fed buys Treasury bonds, mortgage-backed securities or other assets from banks, pumping liquidity into the financial system with the aim of juicing the economy, encouraging more hiring and stabilizing prices.

The Fed has rolled out two such policies since the downturn, which are often seen as tools used to kick-start the economy when normal policies like interest-rate cuts aren’t enough, with mounting inflationary pressures seen as an eventual side effect.

Now is not the time for such a move, Bullard says, as the economy would really have to tank to consider such policy.

“I think QE3 would require the economy to deteriorate somewhat from where it is right now,” Bullard says, according to CNBC.

“The basic story on the U.S. economy is that we’ve had good news over the last six months or so, especially compared to the recession scenario that was being painted in the August-September time period of last year.”

Liquidity from quantitative easing often finds its way to commodities markets, and another round could send already pricey crude oil even higher.

“I think one of the biggest mistakes is continue to throw us much more in the way of monetary injections into the economy and with that, you get a much higher increase in commodity prices and potentially produce less global consumption across the world, which slows economic activity down,” Bullard says….”

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Bill Gross Throws in the Towel Over the Fed Forcing Risk On Trade

“First it was Bob Janjuah throwing in the towel in the face of central planning, now we get the same sense from Bill Gross who in his latest letter once again laments the forced transfer of risk from the private to the public sector: “The game as we all have known it appears to be over… moving for the moment from private to public balance sheets, but even there facing investor and political limits. Actually global financial markets are only selectively delevering. What delevering there is, is most visible with household balance sheets in the U.S. and Euroland peripheral sovereigns like Greece.” Gross’ long-term view is well-known – inflation is coming: “The total amount of debt however is daunting and continued credit expansion will produce accelerating global inflation and slower growth in PIMCO’s most likely outcome.”The primary reason for Pimco’s pessimism, which is nothing new, is that in a world of deleveraging there will be no packets of leverage within the primary traditional source of cheap credit-money growth: financial firms. So what is a fund manager to do? Why find their own Steve McQueen’ianGreat Escape from Financial Repression of course. “ it is your duty to try to escape today’s repression. Your living conditions are OK for now – the food and in this case the returns are good – but they aren’t enough to get you what you need to cover liabilities. You need to think of an escape route that gets you back home yet at the same time doesn’t get you killed in the process. You need a Great Escape to deliver in this financial repressive world.” In the meantime Gross advises readers to do just what we have been saying for years: buy commodities and real (non-dilutable) assets: “Commodities and real assets become ascendant, certainly in relative terms, as we by necessity delever or lever less.” As for the endgame: “Is a systemic implosion still possible in 2012 as opposed to 2008? It is, but we will likely face much more monetary and credit inflation before the balloon pops. Until then, you should budget for “safe carry” to help pay your bills. The bunker portfolio lies further ahead.”

From Bill Gross:

The Great Escape: Delivering in a Delevering World

  • When interest rates cannot be dramatically lowered further or risk spreads significantly compressed, the momentum begins to shift, not necessarily suddenly, but gradually – yields moving mildly higher and spreads stabilizing or moving slightly wider.
  • In such a mildly reflating world, unless you want to earn an inflation-adjusted return of minus 2%-3% as offered by Treasury bills, then you must take risk in some form.
  • We favor high quality, shorter duration and inflation-protected bonds; dividend paying stocks with a preference for developing over developed markets; and inflation-sensitive, supply-constrained commodity products.

About six months ago, I only half in jest told Mohamed that my tombstone would read, “Bill Gross, RIP, He didn’t own ‘Treasuries’.” Now, of course, the days are getting longer and as they say in golf, it is better to be above – as opposed to below – the grass. And it is better as well, to bedelivering alpha as opposed to delevering in the bond market or global economy. The best way to visualize successful delivering is to recognize that investors are locked up in a financially repressive environment that reduces future returns for all financial assets. Breaking out of that “jail” is what I call the Great Escape, and what I hope to explain in the next few pages….”

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Scam Alert: EPA Said to Be Close to Limiting U.S. Greenhouse-Gas Emissions

“The Environmental Protection Agency is close to issuing the first limits to cut U.S. greenhouse gases from power plants, with an announcement possible as soon as today, according to people familiar with the matter.

The rules from President Barack Obama’s administration would set emissions for all power plants at the level established for a natural-gas plant, or about half what is released from a coal-burning facility. Any new coal plants would need expensive carbon-capture equipment, according to the people, who declined to be identified before an announcement.

The proposed nationwide standards would be the first by the EPA for carbon-dioxide from power plants, the largest source of those emissions in the U.S. Environmental groups such as the Sierra Club are pressing the Obama administration to issue tight standards to head off an increase in global warming that they warn could be catastrophic.

“It will make it nearly impossible to build a new coal plant,”Michael Brune, executive director of the Sierra Club, said in an interview. “The market has been moving in this direction already” so the rule “captures the end of an era.”

While the initial impact would be minimal because utilities are not building coal plants as naturalgas prices fall to 10- year lows, adopting the EPA proposal would fuel industry complaints in coal-dependent states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania. The rule would only apply to new plants.

Coal Versus Gas…”

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Gapping Up and Down This Morning

Gapping up

OPXT +61.9%, BZH +5.5%, KBH +2.7%, PHM +1.9%,  ISTA +7.9%, RBS +2.8%, ING +1.2%, BCS +0.7%, UBS +0.6%,

ISTA +8.6%, RBS +2.8%, LEN +2.7%, RIO +0.9%, BCS +0.7%, WAG +3.3%, ARNA +2.0%, VALE +1.5%, ATVI +1%,

DANG +2.9%,

Gapping down

MAPP -28.2%, NBIX -8.6%, MMR -5.3%, APOL -4%, HTS -2.9%, TOT -2.7%, DG -1.4%, BP -1.3%,

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Upgrades and Downgrades This Morning

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Activision Blizzard, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.

Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) Cut to Neutral at Baird.

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (NASDAQ: BWLD) Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank.

Dril-Quip, Inc. (NYSE: DRQ) named as Bear of the Day at Zacks.

Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: EA) Started as Buy at Stifel Nicolaus.

The Kroger Company (NYSE: KR) named Bull of the Day at Zacks.

Micron Technology Inc. (NYSE: MU) Started as Buy at Jefferies.

Saia Inc. (NASDAQ: SAIA) named as value stock of the day at Zacks.

SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) started as Hold at Jefferies.

Southern Copper Corporation (NYSE: SCCO) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE) Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.

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U.S. Equity Preview: OPXT, NBIX, MAPP, LEN, LNDC, HTS, BWLD, & APOL

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Apollo Group Inc. (APOL) fell 6.3 percent to $40.50. The biggest U.S. for-profit college company was cut to neutral from outperform at Credit Suisse Group AG.

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD) decreased 2.4 percent to $92.11. The operator of about 800 namesake restaurants was cut to hold from buy at Deutsche Bank AG, which said the stock is less likely to beat expectations after its valuation rose.

Hatteras Financial Corp. (HTS) declined 2.6 percent to $27.32. The real estate investment trust that invests in mortgage securities issued or guaranteed by U.S. government sponsored entities will sell 15 million shares in a public offering.

Landec Corp. (LNDC) : The maker of packaged food products reported third-quarter earnings were 18 cents a share, surpassing the average analyst estimate by 5 cents.

Lennar Corp. (LEN) increased 3.9 percent to $27.44. The third-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue reported first-quarter earnings excluding some items of 8 cents a share, beating the average analyst estimate of 5 cents.

Map Pharmaceuticals Inc. (MAPP) plunged 22 percent to $13.45. The biopharmaceutical company failed to win U.S. regulatory approval to sell its inhalable version of a 60-year- old migraine drug after regulators questioned the manufacturing process.

Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NBIX) : The San Diego-based drugmaker said results from a phase II trial of NBI-98854 in tardive dyskinesia patients didn’t meet the primary endpoint when data was included from a site where efficacy assessment protocol wasn’t followed. With that site removed, the results shows a “significant” reduction in symptoms, the company said.

Opnext Inc. (OPXT) surged 54 percent to $1.74. The maker of optical components for communications networks will be purchased by Oclaro Inc. (OCLR) in an all-stock deal. Holders of Fremont, California-based Opnext will get 0.42 shares of Oclaro stock, or about $1.96, for every Opnext share they own.

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Regional Banks Have Yet to Rally Like the Big Banks; Is There Value ?

In 2012, large bank stocks have outperformed regional banks.“In 2012, large bank stocks have outperformed regional banks.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Investors may be able to find some big bargains while betting on smaller regional banks.

Financial stocks are in the midst of a 2012 comeback, but shares of regional banks haven’t enjoyed the same surge as their larger peers. While Keefe Bruyette & Woods’ large bank index (BKX) is up more than 26% in 2012, its regional bank index (KRX) is up about 15.5%.

Still, analysts say it could be time for the stocks of regional banks to shine.

Several hundred banks closed or were taken over by the FDIC since 2008. The remaining community and regional banks are a healthier bunch and are well positioned to benefit from the nascent uptick in demand for consumer and business loans.

“So many banks went belly up during the crisis that the regional and community banks that are left are in much stronger condition to pick up market share now that lending is picking up,” said Scott Siefers, head of equity research at Sandler O’Neill.

The Wall Street multibillion scandal no one is talking about

Merger activity among community and regional banks may finally be set to increase too….”

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Yale’s Shiller: It’s Too Early to Say Housing Market at Turning Point

“Despite clear signs that housing is finally bottoming out, it’s too early to make the call if the sector has hit bottom and ready to turn the corner to better days ahead, says Robert Shiller, Yale economist and co-founder of the Case/Shiller Housing Index.

“What we did notice for the last four months is that prices have been falling, at the same time indicators are looking stronger — permits are up, the NAHB housing market index is up and in the economy, the confidence is up,” Shiller tells CNBC, referring to the National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, which rose in January and in February and came in flat in March.

“There are signs that it could be a turnaround. I give it a chance that this could be a turning point but I’m not saying it is — I think it’s still too uncertain to call a turning point and it could continue to go down.”

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Goldman’s Jim O’Neill: Glass ‘More Half Full Than Empty’

“The world economy is on the mend despite problems in Europe, but investors are still scared and react by retreating to cash every time they hear bad news, Jim O’Neill, chairman at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, told CNBC on Tuesday.

Jim O'Neill
Ben Stansall | AFP | Getty Images
Jim O’Neill

Investors are “obsessed” with the problems in Western economies, but actually the U.S. economy is recovering, and in Europe there are some countries that are doing better than others, O’Neill said.

“Generally speaking, cash is king; people are really reluctant and cautious,” he said, citing the example of last week, when at the first sign of disappointment in Europe after some bad economic data investors were in a “panic.” “That is the mood across the board,” O’Neill added.

This mood makes it hard for investors to get back into stock markets because the focus is on short-term results, he explained.

“At the core of it, everybody worries about the next quarter and, linked to it, the volatility of last year is what scared a lot of longer-term investors. It’s tough for a lot of pension fund trustees to live through that,” O’Neill said.

Added to this is the fact that the past decade has been weak for stock markets so “there’s a broad anti-equity culture out there,” he said, but added that the prospects for stocks are good.

“I continue to see the world glass more half full than empty… on the account that the U.S. is on the way back, as it has been for some time.”

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Starbucks Serves Up a Bug Frapuccino

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“Luzmila Ruiz holds a spool of dyed yarn, made from the cochineal insect, which is crushed in her hand as well as a ball made up of thousands of crushed insects, in this Nov. 2006 file photo.

You can get your Starbucks Strawberry Frappuccino venti, grande or tall. You just can’t get it without insects, to which it owes its pink and rosy color.

In what the company, in a statement, says was a move intended to reduce its use of artificial ingredients, Starbucks has started using cochineal extract to supply its Frappuccinos’ strawberry hue. Cochineal extract is derived from grinding up insects, the dried bodies of cochineal bugs, found primarily in Mexico and South America. Cochineal dye has been used as a coloring agent since the 15th century.

Before you get all cold-and-bothered about your insect-Frappuccino, be advised: Cochineal is considered safe by the FDA, and is widely used for coloration in jams, preserves, meat, marinades, alcoholic drinks, bakery products, cookies, cheddar cheese and many other food products.

It has been found by the World Health Organization, however, to cause asthma in some people, and in some others an allergic reaction.

Starbucks’ statement, issued partly in response to vegans’ asking if the use of this ingredient makes Strawberry Frappuccino vegan or not, reads in full:

“At Starbucks, we strive to carry products that meet a variety of dietary lifestyles and needs. We also have the goal to minimize artificial ingredients in our products. While the strawberry base isn’t a vegan product, it helps us move away from artificial dyes.

“Many Starbucks ingredients can be combined to create a beverage free from animal-derived products; however, we are unable to guarantee this due to the potential cross-contamination with other animal-derived products in our retail locations.”

A vegetarian website, ThisDishIsVegetarian.com, brands the strawberry insecto-Frapp non-vegan.”

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The OECD Proposes a $1.3 Trillion Eurozone Crisis Fund

“BRUSSELS (AP) — The 17 countries that use the euro need to build a €1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) firewall to help the struggling currency union return to growth, the head of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Tuesday.

Angel Gurria, the secretary-general of the Paris-based international development body, said existing plans for a €500 billion ($664 billion) European rescue fund were not enough to restore market confidence in the eurozone.

“The mother of all firewalls should be in place,” Gurria he told a told a news conference in Brussels, where he was flanked by Olli Rehn, the EU’s economic affairs commissioner, who has also been pushing for a larger bailout fund.

A permanent bailout fund of at least €1 trillion would give governments the breathing space to focus on kickstarting growth and restoring the competitiveness of their economies, Gurria added.

As well as shoring up the financial defenses, the OECD chief pointed to a raft of economic reforms that individual countries should enact. According to the organization’s annual report for the eurozone, which was released Tuesday, vulnerable states may need more than €1 trillion in aid over the coming two years and Gurria said eurozone finance ministers should take a decision to boost their bailout funds at their meeting in Copenhagen on Friday.

Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, signaled on Monday that it would support an increase to around €700 billion ($929 billion), but only until some €200 billion in loans already promised to Greece, Ireland and Portugal have been paid back….”

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A Flight to Safety in Europe Occurs as German Bonds and Rates of PIIGS Rise

“German bunds rose amid concern measures to increase the euro-region’s financial firewall will fail to stem the euro-area crisis, spurring demand for the region’s safest assets.

Italian government debt fell as it sold 3.82 billion euros ($5.11 billion) of bonds today. Ten-year bunds gained for the fifth time in six days after a German industry report predicted consumer confidence will decline in April. Finance ministers from the 17 euro nations will meet in Copenhagen on March 30 to discuss bailout provisions. German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave her first indication yesterday that Germany could let temporary and permanent rescue funds run in parallel.

“It’s far from certain that we will have an increase in the rescue funds’ capacity and also the devil will be very much in the detail, whether Germany would go ahead with raising the capacity of the permanent funds or not,” said Elwin de Groot, a market economist at Rabobank Nederland in Utrecht. “That will keep markets on guard. This confidence figure that we saw this morning was really a small dip, but overall consumers remain fairly downbeat.”…”

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