In order to prevent systemic risk the Fed has rolled out new rules that are similar to that of Basel 3.

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Profits up 3%. NKE posted a buc per share. Margins got slashed, but the company just managed to pass it on to customers.

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Revs up a meager 2%

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A stronger euro, a better than expected Spanish bond auction, lower sovereign bond yields, good data in Germany, great data in the U.S., and perhaps some pent up demand sprinkled with short covering gave us the mother of all rallies today.

Santa went on a seek and destroy mission to kill the bearshitters in burlap garb.

DOW UP 335

NASDAQ UP 80

S&P UP 35

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIct9ZyL2WA 450 300]

 

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Read here:

The stock market rose sharply on Tuesday in part on the strength of a solid government report on new housing starts and permits. Housing starts in November checked in at an annual rate of 685,000, up 9.3 percent from October 2011, and up 24.3 percent from October 2010.

This would seem to be a strange time for a housing construction boom. As blogger Barry Ritholtz Tweeted: ” Yeah, more inventory! Just what we need!” Indeed, a sharply higher amount of unsold homes would seem to fall near the bottom of the long list of things the U.S. economy needs. Existing home sales, while up this year, are way below their recent peaks. And so at the end of October, there were “3.33 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.0-month supply at the current sales pace,” according to the National Association of Realtors. That figure probably estimates the impending supply given the number of homes that are in foreclosure and likely to be puked onto the market by banks. Meanwhile, new home sales are running at a low pace — an annualized rate of 307,000 — which means it would take 6.3 months to clear the 162,000 new homes from the market. A four-month supply of new and existing homes would be much more healthy.

So why are housing starts rising? A look inside the data reveals the answer. Builders have learned their lesson. They aren’t foolishly building amenity-rich McMansions and Tudors with four-car garages to sell to highly indebted aspirational consumers. Rather, they’re building smaller, practical abodes that they plan to rent out. Indeed, recent housing data help flesh out a post-crisis cultural, societal and financial shift toward housing: less owning and more renting. Thanks to foreclosures, walking away and a general inability to get financing, the homeownership rate has fallen in the U.S. from 69 percent in the third quarter of 2006 to 66.3 percent in the third quarter of 2011. That translates into several million households that used to own homes that are now renting.

Builders have reacted to this shift. They’re building fewer family homes and more multifamily buildings. Look at the data. Yes, in November, the headline housing starts number was up sharply from October 2011, and from November 2010. (See Table 3 in the above document) But single-family starts haven’t done much: They were up only 2.3 percent from October 2011, and down 1.5 percent from November 2010. But the market for structures with five units or more is going gangbusters. In November 2011, starts in this sector came in at an annual rate of 230,000, up 32 percent from 174,000 in October 2011, and up an eye-popping 180 percent from November 2010. Through the first 11 months of the year, single family housing starts are off about 10 percent from the first 11 months of 2010. By contrast, starts of structures with five or more units were up 60 percent in the same time period, from 97,700 to 156,200. The sharp rise in apartment construction is more than compensating for the continuing decline in house construction. The data on permits (Table 1) tells a similar story. Through first 11 months of 2011, permits for free-standing houses are off 7.7 percent from the first 11 months of 2010, while permits for 5+ unit structures are up 36.4 percent.

Rather than indicating optimism about the housing sales market, the data on housing starts and permits point to optimism about the apartment rental market. Builders, and the lenders who enable them, are looking ahead and concluding that it makes more sense to build multifamily units, which tend to be more efficient, smaller and less expensive than single-family homes. In addition, this type of housing offers developers far more flexibility. Depending on market conditions, they may decide to sell the units as condos, or rent them out. In recent years, as in the single-home market, the bias has shifted away from ownership. Check out the Census Bureau data that breaks down completed housing by purpose and design. (See Table Q6) In 2007, only 62 percent of the housing units in buildings with two or more units were built for rent; the percentage rose to 84 percent in 2009 and 87 percent in 2010. In the first three quarters of 2011, 90 percent of such units completed were built for rent.

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Crazy days like today bring out the restrictions.

Today on restriction for short sale is: TZA, EDZ, ERY, & SMDD

Usually after such a restriction there is a huge reversal. Make what you want of this info for I’m just a simple man.

GLT

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFl0nlHaWa4&feature=related 450 300]

 

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Bill Gross says to enjoy Santa’s rally as a cold winter is upon us.

Source

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Sighting fragility in their recovery the IMF suggest putting up a firewall to prevent a bond crisis that may stem from the rest of the region.

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Read an excerpt from his recent Dow Theory letter here.

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The usual suspects; but Tesla is an interesting new comer 

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Everyone expects bad news for the first half of next year, but some analysts a pointing to a surprise in 2012.

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A 50% haircut is expected 

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CNN Poll: President’s approval nearing 50%

President Barack Obama’s approval rating, a crucial indicator of his reelection chances, is on the rise, according to a new national survey.

A CNN/ORC International Poll out Tuesday also indicates that the partisan battle over extending the payroll tax cut may be partially responsible for the jump in the president’s numbers.

Full results (pdf)

According to the survey, 49% of Americans approve of the job Obama’s doing in the White House, up five points from last month, with 48% saying they disapprove, down six points from mid-November. The 49% approval rating is the president’s highest since May, when his number hit 54% thanks to a bounce following the killing of Osama bin Laden. Since then, in CNN polling, Obama’s approval rating has hovered in the mid-40s.

“President Barack Obama’s approval rating appears to be fueled by dramatic gains among middle-income Americans,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “The data suggest that the debate over the payroll tax is helping Obama’s efforts to portray himself as the defender of the middle class.”

Obama’s gains have come at the expense of the Republicans in Congress and the GOP in general. By a 50% to 31% margin, people questioned say they have more confidence in the president than in congressional Republicans to handle the major issues facing the country. Obama held a much narrower 44% to 39% margin in March.

And the GOP’s overall favorable rating has dropped to six points, to 43%, since June, while the Democrats’ positive rating remained steady at 55%.

“The Democrats do particularly well among middle income Americans, while the Republicans win support only from the top end of the income scale,” adds Holland.

Overall, only 16% say they approve of the job Congress is doing, with 83% giving lawmakers from both parties the thumbs down. The Congressional disapproval rating has topped 80% since August in CNN polling.

The survey indicates that Obama remains personally popular, with three-quarters saying they approve of him as a person.

“Overall, it’s not a bad position for an incumbent to be in as the calendar turns to an election year, but there are many months to go,” says Holland.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from Dec. 16 to Dec. 18, with 1,015 adult Americans questioned by telephone. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

via 

 

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(via HuffPo)

Researchers in the UK have found that 92 percent of over 100 public baby changing tables carry traces of cocaine. Say what?

The study was conducted by a team of Real Radio journalists from a local station in North West England. While not the most science-y of scientists, they used specialist wipes to test facilities in shopping centers, hospitals, police stations, courts, churches, supermarkets and department stores.

Their efforts were fueled by last month’s announcement that the UK is the cocaine capital of Europe. Changing tables are only the latest germy hotspot being tested.

As Jezebel’s Margaret Hartmann points out:

“Considering that money (and plenty of other things we touch) are coated in traces of the drug too, it seems unlikely that the contamination is solely due to addicts doing lines off of Koala Kare changing stations. Though, you should still be cautious about putting your precious child directly on those tables, because according to our scientific research they’re coated in baby poop.”

So thank you British journalists. We were already icked out about putting our kids down on those stations. Now, we’re thinking a nice quiet corner of a bookstore, a hidden booth at a restaurant, a park bench… really anywhere, may be a better bet.

Via Jezebel

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SOURCE

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That sound you just heard was Paul Krugman’s head exploding.

PolitiFact’s Lie of the Year 2011

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I say this is not the first time BLS has leaked employment info. I’m sure there are hedge funds out there who have the ability to pay well for such important information.

Perdue Media Team Used Confidential Data To Spin Jobs Reports

Federal officials question legality of getting employment info before official release

RALEIGH — Since as early as January 2011, and perhaps before then, Gov. Bev Perdue’s press office has received access to confidential employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics hours if not days before its scheduled release, quite likely in violation of federal law. The governor’s staff used its early access to massage the monthly employment press release that reported jobs data to the public.

Documents and correspondence obtained by Carolina Journal show that the Division of Employment Security, formerly known as the Employment Security Commission, sent a draft of the press release each month to Perdue’s press office. The governor’s spokesmen typically rewrote the text and added a positive spin, even if the data did not support Perdue’s talking points.

The glowing quotes were attributed to Lynn Holmes, director of the employment agency, but the documents show the quotes were approved and probably written by a Perdue press aide, either Chrissy Pearson or Mark Johnson.

In several instances, DES spokesman Larry Parker cautioned Pearson or Johnson against using extraneous or unverifiable information in a release to boost Perdue’s image. At times, the Perdue communications team would push back, and the release would undergo several revisions before final publication.

While the operation may sound like a harmless effort to add political spin to the release of jobs data, sharing confidential BLS estimates while they are protected by an embargo violates a federal law barring the early release of employment data. This is no small matter: A conviction for breaching the Confidential Information Protection and Statistical Efficiency Act of 2002 carries a fine of up to $250,000, up to five years in prison, or both.

The data, including monthly estimates for current job totals, the labor force, and the unemployment rate, are produced by BLS with some minor assistance from the Labor Market Information Division of DES.

Former Gov. Mike Easley’s administration received an early briefing on the employment reports from ESC staff for several months in 2003 and 2004, if not longer, but those briefings apparently stopped after CJ learned of and reported on them in 2004.

Perdue and her staff may not receive formal briefings, but Parker told CJ in September that he shares the jobs report with Perdue’s staff roughly 24 hours before the announced time for the monthly release. Emails obtained by CJ involving Parker, Pearson, Johnson, and in one instance Department of Commerce spokesman Tim Crowley, show officials discussing the data more than 48 hours before the embargo was lifted.

“BLS does not support the release of employment and unemployment data before the established dates and times,” said Janet Rankin, BLS regional commissioner for the southeast office in Atlanta in an email. She notes that states are required to publish the dates they will release employment data on Dec. 31 of the previous year and follow that schedule.

She added that state agencies enter a cooperative agreement with BLS to gain access to its confidential data, and that the agreements “state that estimates cannot be shared outside of the LMI unit until they are final and ready for publication. The data are embargoed until the state predetermined release date and time” (her emphasis).

When CJ reported on the briefings Easley received in 2004, Rankin said at the time: “A person associated with developing the data that is caught releasing it or commenting on it prematurely is subject to fines and jail time.”

CJ initially suspected Perdue was receiving employment information that was under embargo in August, when she discussed information in the jobs report at a meeting of the Rotary Club of Asheville the day before the data were released to the public.

The statewide employment report typically is released the third Friday of each month at 10 a.m. The December statewide employment report will be released Tuesday at 10 a.m. (To download a PDF of the release schedule, click here.)

A review of several 2011 email exchanges reveals how the monthly process, in which Perdue aides insisted on overseeing the releases, worked.

February release

Parker and Johnson had reviewed a draft of the February report no later than Thursday, March 24. The public release had been set for 10 a.m. the following day. In an email sent to Parker at 5:36 p.m. Thursday, Johnson wrote:

Also, please start using the message points that Chrissy included in her email to all the [public information officers]. The Governor’s message on jobs should be reflected. For example, Lynn’s quote could say something to the effect of: ‘As Gov. Perdue continues to fulfill her No. 1 priority of bringing new jobs to North Carolina, the state saw a significant number of job gains in February.

At 8:51 a.m. March 25, an hour before the scheduled release, Parker told Johnson he had difficulty following Pearson’s directive:

Mark, I looked through Chrissy’s generic messaging and found nothing to ‘totally’ fit.

• The most pressing problem in NC and my top priority since taking office has been to create new jobs. (we don’t know how many of these jobs – over-the-month or over-the-year – are new)

• We are in the top ten states to improve our unemployment rate – which has dropped by nearly one-and-a-half points compared to where we were last February. (Our unemployment rate has improved because our labor force has dropped NOT because we have grown jobs. This is a DANGEROUS assumption until more consistent job growth takes hold. The data show this.)

• Since the start of my term, business have pledged to create 58,00 jobs and are investing 12.5 billion dollars – (This is a Commerce number, not ours.)

With that said – here is what I wrote in the revised quote.

‘North Carolina added a significant number of jobs in February,’ said ESC Chairman Lynn R. Holmes. ‘This was the second consecutive month with job gains as several sectors showed improvement. Gov. Perdue’s top priority is growing and keeping jobs in North Carolina, and in February there were a notable amount of job gains as well as over-the-year increase throughout many of the job sectors. Our statewide offices will continue to provide services to assist our state’s citizens who are looking to find work.

Also at 8:51, Parker sent Johnson a slightly different version:

”North Carolina added a significant number of jobs in February,” said ESC Chairman Lynn R. Holmes. “North Carolina experienced back-to-back months of job gains, showing that the state is forging ahead of the difficult recession. The Governor continues to focus on growing jobs in North Carolina and in February there were a notable amount of job gains, as well as over-the-year increases throughout many of the job sectors. Our statewide offices will continue to provide services to assist our state’s citizens who are looking for work.”

At 9:29, Johnson responded to Parker, “Chrissy still needs to review, but see the tweaked version of what you sent below.”

At 10:07, seven minutes after the scheduled public release, Parker had not received a go-ahead from Perdue’s team to finalize the language. “Do we have an update,” he asked Johnson. “BLS has already released the data.”

BLS posts data for all the states on its website at the time designated for release.

The final version released to the public read:

“Clearly Gov. Perdue’s focus on growing jobs in North Carolina should continue to be the No. 1 priority for North Carolina leaders,” said ESC Chairman Lynn R. Holmes. “We are showing signs of slow but steady progress, with job gains in February and over-the-year. Here at the ESC we remain committed to assisting out-of-work citizens with training and services to get them through these hard times and back to work.”

Read the rest here.

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Not so bad if you trust the FDA

Also keep on drinking that soda pop

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No social media companies make the list…

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A new measure for funding banks will be released tomorrow by the ECB. It has received mixed reviews, but the markets seem to like it as some news was released this morning or afternoon in Europe.

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