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Monthly Archives: November 2011

Asian Markets Trade Mixed While Europe and U.S. Futures Inch Higher

Asia

Europe

Futures

Currencies

Commodities

Italian 10 Year @ 6.63…down 25 basis points

The story is about hope and belief that the EU will advance solutions for sovereign debt woes.

Austerity measures in Italy will be voted on and once the bill is voted upon Berlusconi is expected to step down. Italy could have a new government by Monday next week.

Both Italian and French 10 year yields ease a bit.

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BREAKING: Man Shot at #OccupyOakland over a ‘Bag of Weed’

UPDATE 3 (7:42 PST): According to this new video, released by an Occupy Oakland activist who witnessed the incident, the shooting occurred during a fight over “a bag of weed.” He concludes: “It’s gotten real nasty down here, real fast.”

Read the rest and see the video here.

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You Need Not Speak German

For shits and giggles

[youtube://http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MsQoFZZceQ&feature=related 450 300]

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EuroZone Dual Mandate: Keep Euro Intact, Not Do Things Which Keep Euro Intact

Nov 9 2011, 4:38 PM ET 575

When I was a young and naive economics writer, I used to write about developing countries a fair amount.  Time and again they would make these bizarre and pointless moves, like suddenly and for no apparent reason defaulting on a bunch of debt.  They would engage in obviously, stupidly unsustainable fiscal practices that caused recurring crises.  They would divert critical investment funds into social spendingwhich was going to become unsustainable when underinvestment reduced government revenue.  And the other journalists and I would cluck our tongues and say “Why can’t they do the right thing when it’s so . . . bleeding . . . obvious?”

Then we had our own financial crisis and it became suddenly, vividly clear: democratic governments cannot do even obvious right things if the public will not tolerate it.  Even dictators have interest groups whose support they must buy.

This has come home to me forcefully several times over the last few years, but never more than now.  The leaders of the eurozone have a dual mandate to keep the euro intact, and to not do the things which could keep the euro intact.  They cannot fiscally integrate to the extent necessary because, as I wrote for the Daily the other day, the Greeks do not want to act like Germans, and the Germans do not want to share their credit rating with anyone who won’t.

It is obvious that either Germany is going to have to guarantee massive ongoing fiscal transfers to the PIIGS, or Greece and probably Italy are going to have to undergo a massively contractionary austerity program, or they will have to leave the euro.  Yet in the face of these three choice–which exclude both each other, and any other mathematically possible outcome–their governments have chosen d: half measures.  No, half-measures is too generous.  Quarter measures.  Window dressing that only covers a single pane.

With Berlusconi’s obviously counterproductive antics tanking markets worldwide, the sort of hopeful pessimism that has pervaded the economic commentariat has now turned to open despair.  Their cri de coeur is ably summed up by Brad DeLong:

I have been complaining for some time now that Reinhart and Rogoff think that the time is always 1931 and that we are always Austria–that the great fiscal crisis is about to erupt and send us lurching down toward Great Depression II. Well, right now guess what? The time is 1931, and we are Austria. The Federal Reserve needs to buy up every single European bond owned by every single American financial institution for cash before the increase in eurorisk leads American finance to tighten credit again and send us down into the double dip. The Federal Reserve Needs to do so now. Paul Krugman: >This Is The Way The Euro Ends: Not with a Bang, But with a Bunga-Bunga: [W]ith Italian 10-years now well above 7 percent, we’re now in territory where all the vicious circles get into gear — and European leaders seem like deer caught in the headlights. And as Martin Wolf says today, the unthinkable — a euro breakup — has become all too thinkable: >>A eurozone built on one-sided deflationary adjustment will fail. That seems certain. If the leaders of the eurozone insist on that policy, they will have to accept the result. >Every even halfway plausible route to euro salvation now depends on a radical change in policy by the European Central Bank. Yet as John Quiggin says in today’s Times, the ECB has instead been part of the problem. >I believe that the ECB rate hike earlier this year will go down in history as a classic example of policy idiocy… the sheer stupidity of obsessing over inflation when the euro was obviously at risk boggles the mind. I still find it hard to believe that the euro will fail; but it seems equally hard to believe that Europe will do what’s needed to avoid that failure.

For all my cynicism, I too want to cray [sic] out, “For the love of Mike, why?”

Why can’t they do the any of the obvious things–not even necessarily the right ones?  Why are they picking the only path that is obviously not going to work?

But I come back to the answer above: they can’t.  Government, like soylent green, is people. And people are not always rational.

Read the rest here.

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Why iBC Insists On Trading Only In Genuine Leather Chairs

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) – A suburban Kansas City woman was left sitting in a vinyl recliner for so long that her skin had fused to the chair and she had to be pried out to be taken to a hospital after suffering an apparent stroke, authorities said.

Read the rest here.

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