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Monthly Archives: October 2011

ACOM MISSED EPS

Ancestry.com prelim $0.40 vs $0.36 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $103.1 mln vs $103.3 mln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate

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STATEMENT OF EU HEADS OF STATE

STATEMENT OF EU HEADS OF STATE OR GOVERNMENT

At today’s meeting, in line with paragraph 7 of the European Council conclusions of 23 October concerning relations between the EU and the Euro area, the members of the European Council were informed by President Van Rompuy about the state of preparations of the Euro Summit that will take place later in the day

They discussed the situation and underlined their common resolve to do their utmost to overcome the crisis and to help face in a spirit of solidarity the challenges confronting the European Union and the Euro area.

They welcomed the consensus on measures to restore confidence in the banking sector reached by the Council (ECOFIN) on 22 October. On this basis, they agreed the text annexed to this statement subject to agreement on the measures indicated in this text forming part of a broader package, including the decisions to be taken by today’s meeting of the Euro Summit. The Council (ECOFIN) will finalise the work and adopt the necessary follow up measures.

Brussels, 26 October 2011

EN

1Consensus on banking package

1. Measures for restoring confidence in the banking sector (banking package) are urgently needed and are necessary in the context of strengthening prudential control of the EU banking sector. These measures should address:

a. The need to ensure the medium-term funding of banks, in order to avoid a credit crunch and to safeguard the flow of credit to the real economy, and to coordinate measures to achieve this.

b. The need to enhance the quality and quantity of capital of banks to withstand shocks and to demonstrate this enhancement in a reliable and harmonised way.

Term funding

2. Guarantees on bank liabilities would be required to provide more direct support for banks in accessing term funding (short-term funding being available at the ECB and relevant national central banks), where appropriate. This is also an essential part of the strategy to limit deleveraging actions.

3. A simple repetition of the 2008 experience with full national discretion in the setting-up of liquidity schemes may not provide a satisfactory solution under current market conditions. Therefore a truly coordinated approach at EU-level is needed regarding entry criteria, pricing and conditions. The Commission should urgently explore together with the EBA, EIB, ECB the options for achieving this objective and report to the EFC.

ANNEX

EN

ANNEX

2

Capitalisation of banks

4. Capital target: There is broad agreement on requiring a significantly higher capital ratio of 9 % of the highest quality capital and after accounting for market valuation of sovereign debt exposures, both as of 30 September 2011, to create a temporary buffer, which is justified by the exceptional circumstances. This quantitative capital target will have to be attained by 30 June 2012, based on plans agreed with national supervisors and coordinated by EBA. This prudent valuation would not affect the relevant financial reporting rules. National supervisory authorities, under the auspices of the EBA, must ensure that banks’ plans to strengthen capital do not lead to excessive deleveraging, including maintaining the credit flow to the real economy and taking into account current exposure levels of the group including their subsidiaries in all Member States, cognisant of the need to avoid undue pressure on credit extension in host countries or on sovereign debt markets.

5. Financing of capital increase: Banks should first use private sources of capital, including through restructuring and conversion of debt to equity instruments. Banks should be subject to constraints regarding the distribution of dividends and bonus payments until the target has been attained. If necessary, national governments should provide support , and if this support is not available, recapitalisation should be funded via a loan from the EFSF in the case of Eurozone countries.

State Aid

6. Any form of public support, whether at a national or EU-level, will be subject to the conditionality of the current special state aid crisis framework, which the Commission has indicated will be applied with the necessary proportionality in view of the systemic character of the crisis.

ANNEX

EN

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Apartment values, rents on the rise

Make sure you read the whole thing; AEC is mentioned explicitly.

Eat crow, doubters.

Strong growth of rents and occupancy levels of rental apartments have pushed some building values to record levels as Americans shift away from home ownership.

While concerns about the economy are cooling the market for most other types of commercial real estate, apartment rents and occupancies continue to be boosted by demand from millions of people who are victims of foreclosure or are unwilling or unable to buy their own homes.

At the end of the third quarter, 5.6% of the nation’s apartments were vacant, down from 5.9% in the second quarter, and the lowest level since 2006, according to Reis Inc., a real-estate data service.

.Rents are up even in some cities that have been hard hit by high unemployment and the housing crash, like Orlando, Fla., Detroit and Phoenix. Effective rents, which include landlord discounts in some markets, rose to $1,004 a month in the third quarter, up 2.3% from a year earlier, according to Reis. Of the 82 major markets that Reis tracks, only Las Vegas saw rents decline compared with a year earlier.

Forecasters say rent increases could slow or stop if the economy weakens further. But for now, these trends are producing outsized returns for real-estate companies, compared with other commercial-property classes.

Values of apartment buildings in the best locations—with modern amenities like resort-style swimming pools and outdoor movie viewing areas—went into record territory in the third quarter, according to an index compiled by Green Street Advisors. The previous record had been set in the second quarter of 2007.

Investors who bought apartment buildings just a few years ago are selling for big profits. Regency Club, a 372-unit complex in Jackson, N.J., with two swimming pools and tennis courts, sold for $44 million in August, compared with $39.9 million in early 2009, according to Marcus & Millichap.

At the same time, though, the rise in rents is squeezing large swathes of the middle class by increasing living costs just as wage increases are anemic and unemployment high.

Glen Guile, a 40-year-old information technology and marketing employee for an auto-parts company in Raleigh, N.C., says he’s looking on Craigslist, an online classified-ad service, for a roommate because he just heard his $629 rent for a one-bedroom apartment could be increased another $30 to $40 a month. He’s already working a second job at a Costco store. “I don’t get a day off. I work seven days a week,” he said.

But thanks to rising rents and occupancies, some analysts predict that real-estate companies will have the highest growth in property net income this year and next year since 2006.

Associated Estates Realty Corp. kicked off the earnings season for apartment-building companies Monday by reporting a 12.5% year-over-year increase in funds from operations, a common metric used by real-estate companies to measure performance. When looking at apartments owned for a year or more, rents for Associated’s 12,000-unit portfolio were up 4.6% compared with the third quarter of 2010.

“Some people try to make the argument that what’s going on in the job market affects apartment demand,” said Jeffrey Friedman, Associated’s chief executive. “We don’t believe that.”

The apartment sector has been insulated from high unemployment because it continues to inhabit a sweet spot in the economy created by demographic factors and the anemic home sales market. The U.S. is expected to see 1.5 million rental household formations in 2011, a record year, according to Green Street.

The main reason for the rental increase is a faster-than-expected decline in the home ownership rate, according to Green Street. The nation’s rate came in at 66% in the second quarter, down from 66.4% in the first quarter and 66.9% in the second quarter a year ago, according to the Census Bureau.

Some industry watchers say the rate could fall to as low as 60%. Each 1% decline in the home-ownership rate represents the movement of one million households to rentals.

If a current tenant balks about a lease renewal including higher rent, Mr. Friedman says he isn’t overly concerned. “There’s someone coming right behind them who can afford it,” he said.

To be sure, the economics of apartment investments aren’t detached from the concerns about financial problems in Europe and the possibility of a double-dip recession in the U.S. As a result, landlords have started to temper rent growth in some areas, including Denver, Atlanta and the Baltimore area, according to Green Street.

If another recession hits and unemployment rises, millions of renters could likely double up or move home with their parents, putting a crimp in demand. “People just aren’t going to write bigger and bigger rent checks into infinity,” warns Andrew McCulloch a Green Street analyst.

The high rents are also being supported by a lack of new supply. Developers have scrambled to launch new projects, but most of them won’t start hitting the market until late 2012. Roughly 8,200 new apartments hit the market in the third quarter, the second lowest number since Reis began tracking data in 1999.

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Uncle Sam Wants YOU to Be a Crip or a Blood: Gangs Infiltrate Military

October 25, 2011 10:08pm4 Comments

byJoel Gehrke Commentary Staff Writer
Follow on Twitter:@jsgehrkejr

Hell’s Angels graffiti written on the back of a military vehicle in Iraq. / FBI

Gang members have been signing up with the United States Armed Forces, posing a “significant criminal threat” to law enforcement, according to a report by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI).

“Gang infiltration of the military continues to pose a significant criminal threat, as members of at least 53 gangs have been identified on both domestic and international military installations,” the report says, resulting in American gang graffiti in Iraq, among other things.

Every branch of the military contains some gang members, the FBI reported, but most gang members join the Army, the Army Reserves, and the U.S. National Guard. And gang member enlistment doesn’t require a sinister intention. “Many street gang members join the military to escape the gang lifestyle,” says the FBI, while others join at the behest of a court “as an alternative to incarceration.”

But the military sometimes proves a bad environment for gang members, who “often revert back to their gang associations once they encounter other gang members in the military.”

Numerous U.S. gangs, according to the report, “advise members without criminal records to join the military for necessary weapons and combat training.” Military deployments, in the event, end up placing gang members alongside other members of the armed forces on active duty.

Gang membership in the U.S. military has resulted in “incidents of weapons theft and trafficking,” the FBI warns, which “may have a negative impact on public safety or pose a threat to law enforcement officials.”

You can see a list of gangs affiliated with branches of the military below. For reference, OMG stands for “Outlaw Motorcycle Gang.”

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Crude inventories grow 2,350% more than Platts estimates

Yes, I did run the numbers.

NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices dropped more than 2 percent after the government said U.S. crude supplies grew much more than expected last week.

The price of benchmark oil fell $2.13, or 2.3 percent, to $91.04 per barrel in New York. Brent crude fell $1.32 to $109.60 in London.

The Department of Energy reported an increase of 4.7 million barrels in the nation’s storage tanks last week. Analysts expected supplies to grow by only 200,000 barrels, according to Platts, the energy-information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

For most of the year oil supplies fell in the U.S., as drivers and businesses burned less fuel and refineries cut their inventories to save money. Last week crude oil imports increased as operations at many refineries picked up again following seasonal maintenance. Refineries operated at nearly 85 percent capacity last week, up almost 2 percentage points in a week.

Oil and gasoline demand is still down in the U.S., when compared with a year ago, the government said.

Meanwhile gasoline pump prices fell less than a penny on Wednesday to a national average of $3.441 per gallon, according to AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service.

In other energy trading, heating oil was down about a penny at $3.0388 per gallon and gasoline futures lost 4 cents at $2.6319 per gallon. Natural gas fell 5 cents to $3.610 per 1,000 cubic feet.

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Whitney Tilson is Now Buying NFLX

After getting crushed on his short position, Whitney is now buying the stock.

This is what he had to say:

“it’s been frustrating to see our original investment thesis validated, yet not profit from it. It certainly highlights the importance of getting the timing right and maintaining your conviction even when the market moves against you. The core of our short thesis was always Netflix’s high valuation. In light of the stock’s collapse, we now think it’s cheap and today established a small long position. We hope it gets cheaper so we can add to it.”

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Today’s Biggest Winners and Losers

No. Ticker % Change Market Cap
1 QCOR 20.11 2,070,000,000
2 MTW 16.99 1,140,000,000
3 PNRA 14.71 3,460,000,000
4 FSLR 13.64 3,730,000,000
5 FFIV 13.15 7,170,000,000
6 ALR 13.02 1,820,000,000
7 ULTI 12.54 1,340,000,000
8 ESRX 12.24 18,780,000,000
9 MDP 11.69 1,120,000,000
10 BIIB 10.99 25,920,000,000
11 ONXX 10.88 2,290,000,000
12 ITRI 10.79 1,320,000,000
13 SLAB 9.89 1,610,000,000
14 VLO 9.66 12,500,000,000
15 MHS 8.73 18,100,000,000
16 AVX 8.65 2,180,000,000
17 XCO 8.54 2,460,000,000
18 NJ 7.51 11,140,000,000
19 MIM 7.19 1,370,000,000
20 ARW 7.02 3,810,000,000
21 HAR 6.79 2,930,000,000
22 SSRI 6.04 1,450,000,000
23 MCK 5.95 18,750,000,000
24 GTLS 5.48 1,560,000,000
25 PCS 5.38 3,290,000,000
26 RHI 5.24 3,660,000,000
27 FMER 5.18 1,440,000,000
28 RFMD 5.07 1,990,000,000
29 SLM 5.06 6,290,000,000
30 CHE 5.05 1,140,000,000
31 ATI 5.05 4,280,000,000
32 TEX 4.97 1,520,000,000
33 AIXG 4.94 1,390,000,000
34 MOLX 4.76 4,090,000,000
35 CNO 4.60 1,410,000,000
36 TSS 4.60 3,600,000,000
37 OC 4.59 3,070,000,000
38 MWW 4.50 1,060,000,000
39 ACAS 4.40 2,490,000,000
40 GEN 4.32 2,150,000,000
41 BA 4.31 47,220,000,000
42 IAG 4.02 7,550,000,000
43 CIG 3.79 10,450,000,000
44 NSU 3.73 1,010,000,000
45 LFC 3.72 65,290,000,000
46 ENDP 3.71 3,270,000,000
47 CRR 3.64 2,660,000,000
48 ADVS 3.64 1,360,000,000
49 AUQ 3.63 1,670,000,000
50 CQP 3.62 2,470,000,000
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No. Ticker % Change Market Cap
1 HGSI -21.76 2,430,000,000
2 DV -17.49 3,150,000,000
3 RSH -12.40 1,330,000,000
4 MASI -12.05 1,340,000,000
5 AMZN -11.34 103,110,000,000
6 BMS -10.48 3,260,000,000
7 GMCR -10.12 9,910,000,000
8 TMO -9.26 20,330,000,000
9 S -9.07 8,080,000,000
10 CHRW -8.40 12,380,000,000
11 JNY -7.76 1,030,000,000
12 TRN -7.61 2,200,000,000
13 YOKU -7.18 2,380,000,000
14 BIN -7.13 2,780,000,000
15 SINA -6.16 5,820,000,000
16 VSI -5.76 1,140,000,000
17 RIMM -5.52 11,600,000,000
18 HTLD -5.46 1,280,000,000
19 F -5.31 47,230,000,000
20 ESI -5.08 1,770,000,000
21 AVY -5.06 2,780,000,000
22 HCC -5.01 3,270,000,000
23 OPEN -4.47 1,210,000,000
24 VECO -4.25 1,050,000,000
25 OMI -4.24 1,970,000,000
26 POL -4.14 1,030,000,000
27 STRA -3.96 1,040,000,000
28 ARE -3.92 4,260,000,000
29 ACOM -3.85 1,090,000,000
30 LMT -3.75 26,290,000,000
31 FTNT -3.73 3,290,000,000
32 AGN -3.73 26,530,000,000
33 BCR -3.67 7,600,000,000
34 HCBK -3.65 2,980,000,000
35 PPO -3.64 2,300,000,000
36 SFLY -3.47 1,650,000,000
37 AUY -3.41 11,570,000,000
38 WAG -3.37 30,470,000,000
39 ADP -3.25 25,500,000,000
40 UAN -3.24 1,830,000,000
41 PCLN -3.14 25,140,000,000
42 BKI -3.14 1,120,000,000
43 SAVE -3.13 1,090,000,000
44 DPS -3.10 8,540,000,000
45 CYOU -3.07 1,560,000,000
46 RENN -3.02 2,340,000,000
47 VRTX -3.00 9,020,000,000
48 WAT -2.93 7,210,000,000
49 QLIK -2.89 2,270,000,000
50 MAKO -2.87 1,590,000,000

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Credit Suisse Thinks China is About to Ease

Premier Wen Jiabao made a statement recently: “well timed and measured pro-active fine tuning.” This has some analysts expecting some sort of monetary policy or easing of rates.

Full article

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FLASH: JOHN CORZINE SUCKS

MF Global is down 30% on news they are looking for strategic alternatives.

I smell bankruptcy.

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