Another Winning Day

The oil sell off isn’t even the crux of my delight today; I need ERX and UCO to go much lower before I begin a dance of elation.

No, no, my joy is in watching a much older strategy begin to really take off.

AEC was up another 2% today, in a quarter’s end buying spree in anticipation of what I expect to be blowout earnings from the multi-family space.

If you missed out on the multi-family REITs, it is entirely your fault, I’m afraid. I highlighted them and their superior barganing position back when I first joined the iBC team.

Friends, watch amazed at the daring feats to be performed before your eyes. Rental rates are rising and occupancy has never been higher.

So far, YTD, my performance has left much to be desired, when discussing paper performance. However, that’s the way life is sometimes. I am quite convinced that I am making the right decisions now, in order to set myself up for massive gains later.

The unfortunate thing about some of my strategies like jumping into distressed assets (CCJ, for instance) is that they are volatile. The fortunate thing about these strategies…is that they are volatile.

Gains is my remaining silver position, AWK and REITs have generally done well at damping losses in the uranium miner, oil and energy shorts, and disappointing performance of BG.

My strategy is completely dependent on my analysis of a few positions and developments being correct. If I am right about my convictions, then I will see you soon, seated in a golden altar. If I am not…well, life could suck a little…

They are having a grand ol’ time today, up 3% and breaking out again to new highs.

Anticipate them posting record profits as they have been expanding aggresively into new rental units, at a time when occupancy rates remain elevated and rent rates have been increasing.

CLP should also be on your radar, as they are basically a bigger, slightly less aggressive version of AEC. CLP has also been expanding but more reservedly.

Are you getting nervous?

I warned you weeks ago; do not think that the debt ceiling issue will be resolved so readily. With two weeks before the oh-so-important unimportant August 2 deadline, there is no indication that talks are about to break way to a solution. No one is interested in a political game like McConnell’s solution.

The mistake many are making is to try and make this into a discussion about Democrat versus Republican. This comparison invites calls of hypocrisy from people who remember all the spending the GOP did during the George W. Bush administration years.

However, a great number of the Republicans in Congress right now were never present for those years. That’s half the reason they ran for election last cycle.

The Tea Party members are not interested in you reminding them of how much money the last GOP Representatives spent. If anything, that is only making them angrier, as they make the push to tame government by chaining it to the ground.

Combine their perceived mandate with a disinterest in the repercussions of a default, and you have a very dangerous situation; one which I feel many of you are sorely unappreciative of.

As I said, never underestimate the ability of zealots to be zealots.

The question here is not who blinks first, but rather, how long will the Democrats’ stomachs hold up before they cave, as the Republicans will not be blinking at all. Because I can tell you, the Tea Party GOP has no hesitation flooring it right as they head into the wall.

If Democrats try to counter zealotry with zealotry, then we will have a most spectacular display of fireworks; one which perhaps changes the very status of this country. But regardless, a great amount of change is coming to Washington. The New GOP is most insistent about that point.

Don’t forget: these people do not care if they get re-elected (most don’t even want to be their long term). They don’t care if government borrowing costs explode (that will make it harder for the country to borrow). They don’t care if SS checks go out the door (plenty of them would cripple SS; this is just a technical way of doing that).

Really, all they do care about is cutting spending and not raising taxes. You should position yourself in anticipation of that outcome, rather than trying to fight it, for it is coming either way.

“Bitch, I got ants all over me!”

Crude oil has been gagged and bound and unceremoniously thrown off a cliff, as people start coming to terms with the fact that the Fed WILL NOT continue permitting the flow of “the sacred sauce.”

Bernanke’s magically liquid elixir is being put back on the shelf, and those of you busy whoring yourselves for a taste are going to withdrawal like a red light district on Sunday.

You underestimate the man.

It’s become a joke, in the past two years.

Finances in distress? Clam prints money.

Governments in peril? Clam prints money.

Baby seals being poached in the Arctic circle? Clam prints money.

But somewhere along the way, you should have realized that Bernanke understands the limits of money printing better than you characterized. Surely, a man who has spent his entire life studying economics and various business cycles would not be so one dimensional?

The convolution and intricacy of the system would require a more elaborate response than “push the button, get a cookie.”

I have said; Bernanke & Co. will not be unleashing the flood again, unless economic perversity runs rampant once more. I will cash in my oil and energy shorts long before that point.

If you wish to take oil to $200 a barrel, fine. But you do so at your own risk and without support of dollar destruction. And Bernanke will not save you when you collapse the recovery; not until you are long after broken and insolvent.

The only way I ultimately lose on my crude trade is if everything stays put. And if the price of crude stays put, how much can I really lose?