The 97 Percent

Do you know what number 97 percent is?

I’ll give you some hints. It’s not some unbearable political promotion. It’s not a reference to obnoxious twenty year olds camped on my lawn; urinating on the bushes. It’s not even the Congressional disapproval rating (which I’m told is much higher…).

No. 97 percent is AEC’s occupancy rate at the close of the quarter.

Oh yeah, and those predictions of rental rates topping appear to be premature. Rates are still up just under 6%, year over year.

It would seem the renter nation is alive and well.

I drained much of my remaining cash position, adding to BAS and CCJ.

I’m committed to a holiday rally. I have only a trace amount of cash left. I have not dipped into margin trading.

If a bottom doesn’t materialize within a week to a week and a half, I will reassess.

Needless to say, I decided to edge long at exactly the wrong time. Ben suckered me in, and my once strong 30% cash position has been whittled away to a mere 10%.

This selloff is going to hurt, delivering its full force directly against the 9th floor, shaking the very walls.

But I find that I am willing to wait it out. The concerns that are driving this selloff are immaterial.

Spanish insolvency, fiscal cliffs, Chinese communists and Ben’s retirement – the four horsemen are dotting the sky and Twitter is like a dumping ground for snarky comments.

Earnings and growth are slowing and Bob Pisani is nowhere to be found.

The funny thing is I was sitting around in exactly the position of the bears this time last year, guffawing in between comments of doom and chugging from a golden chalice.

Let me tell you how this ends for the shorts.

First, they get run over by a stampeding flock of turkey’s. Seasonality adjustments and earnings projections tick up with bad modeling methods. A bottom in housing prices is called for the spring. Employment looks extra rosy with the holiday shopping.

Then Santa comes and mows the surviving shorts down with his sleigh.

This is how the holiday season works.

Let’s review the “impending demise” of civilization. Spanish insolvency can be flooded with EU money. The EU collapse comes from price inflation and manufacturing contraction, not outright defaults. Chinese communists are scary but China can’t exactly afford to have foreign investment flee the country at this precise moment. The fiscal cliff can be voted away.

And after his presidential inauguration, Mitt Romney is going to be ushered into a back room where central bankers will begin the process of extorting him. But even if they fail, Ben has plenty of time to sink so much money into dark pools there’s no chance of reversing his policies.

Why do we need to embrace the end of humanity right now? It’s the holidays. Can’t it wait until next June?

Gee, today would not happen to be the who-cares-th year since probably-unrelated-to-what’s-happening-now happened, would it?

My, that would be a horribly repeatable statistic-with-no-bearing-on-the-present, wouldn’t it?

I’m sure if I were running some sort of column that I tried to get people to read, that would be a crutch of a subject I could lean against without putting much effort into, in order to avoid having to take the 15 minutes required for some strain of originality.

Why, I would probably look at the most recent string of bad data coming out of Europe/China/US/Planet Earth and try to correlate them too, sloppily of course. I would likely do so in complete ignorance to the point that bad data has been coming out of these places uninterrupted for three years and that this does not seem to be a turning point of any real consequence.

In fact, I would probably also have to pretend like the proposition that a major correction fed off a stream of the same crap we’ve had non-stop for three years could happen to coincide with the anniversary of another totally unassociated and major event – the only linkage seemingly being my lackluster and piss poor effort.

Especially with the futures off .2%.

Thank God nothing like that is happening today…

I must work late tonight, to fix issues for clients who are using data storage methods apparently determined by random analog systems for each and every datum.

No matter. I’ll let today’s gains comfort me – which were mammoth.

BAS was the strongest, now back to profitability. BAS is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this resurgence in natural gas pricing. As pricing picks up, the economics of gas extraction become workable again. BAS is currently pricing in a huge slowdown of business which will not emerge should natty prices continue running higher.

Natural gas is experience a glorious rebound. For the moment, it appears my fears of a double dip are unfounded. We shall readdress this subject at a later point.

Prepare for full steam ahead, into Christmas. Santa is barreling towards us, and no man can stop his mighty sleigh.

The QE3 sniffles have been cured, by a double dosage of money lozenges administered straight down this markets throat.

Like it or not; we are going higher.

Yields on EU debt continue to act favorably. The highest risers today were the safehaven countries. The continents’ red-headed step children have better yields by the day.

That won’t last. But for the moment I don’t care.

Because Ben is dropping another $600 Billion into the economy in the short span of one year.

Why should I worry about there being no buyers tomorrow, when someone is ready to buy the store out today?

Meanwhile, I find myself very long with only a trace cash position just north of 10% – holding AEC, CLP, CCJ, BAS and silver.

In other words, tonight I discover myself home at a reasonable hour; finally having escaped the pile of work that has chained me to my desk for two weeks now. It is only a slight reprieve, however. The eye of the storm is overhead, giving me a lull to prepare for the next deleterious wave.

Having just had a small refection, I will withdraw now to spend the evening with the lady, who I have, sadly, been unattentive to of late.

Good night, friends, and peace for you.