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Fun With Twisters

Excuse the lapse of writing, particularly during such an eventful day as yesterday. A family member realized some damage to their house from the wind storms that struck Wednesday; missing shingles, broken trees, some little things like that…and I said I’d help them out.

Today, I’m rather tired and, since I forgot to apply sunscreen, baked like a manicotti.

My outlook on equities remains cautionary. I have a large cash position and ample shorts with SCO and EUO that give me, I feel, a 50/50 cash/invested stance. My longs are AEC, CLP, CCJ, BAS, RGR and silver.

AEC was hammered yesterday, one of the top losers in the market. They announced another secondary, which they’re using to get their debt lower. AEC executives I believe are very concerned about the ability of interest rates to hold. They have been for over a year now. And not just for interest rates from treasury yields, but also there have been subtle drops of fear about what would happen if a push to reform Freddie and Fannie upended the new loan origination process. So possibly expect more dilution. But, earnings are set to improve from the move, FFO remains strong, and as long as they keep pushing the business towards expanding operations (California is their big push at the moment), I will be willing to stomach some stock sales.

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Hunkered Back Down

There wasn’t much need to, but I took profits in the RGR and BAS shares I most recently purchased on the last “selloff”. The RGR shares were bought on 4/4 for $48.03 and the BAS shares were bought on 4/26 for $13.03.

I unloaded them for $50.78 and $13.98, respectively.

I also added to my SCO hedge for $37.30.

Even if I wasn’t expecting the annual recession scare(s), energy demand is clearly falling, and since most of my book is in CCJ and BAS, that leaves me exposed. As I believe this is the start of the next washout, it just makes sense to bunker myself.

Net equivalent cash position now stands north of 50% again, counting on EUO and SCO hedging.

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BOOOYAAAHHH RGR

When I’m willing to quote Jim Cramer in my title, the news I’m carrying can only be of such a variety, of such a lofty level, of such unrivaled immaculateness…

RGR just announced $1.20 earnings per share, when analyst estimates were at $1.01. The $1.01 number was already, what? 30% above the December original estimates. We’re now sitting 50% above the earnings trend that was already justifying $55-60 pricing before Newtown.

I know, you paid “professional” analysts are busy frenziedly scribbling your next hate piece on the firearms industry – I mean, Michael Bloomberg hates guns. Michael Bloomberg…

Do you want to see why you’re wrong? Fine, I’ll show you.

Firearm sales are not going to collapse, but rather gradually return to pre-Newtown levels (elevated even as they are) because these are the guys who actually buy guns:

4_wheeler_mudding

Does that look like a source of rational, informed consumerism? All of your logic…roll it into a ball and choke on it. I told you, mere moments after Dianne Feinstein was finished speaking in the wake of the Newtown tragedy, that the cat had been let out of the bag.

Watch the FBI background checks. While the gun debate remains in the forefront of the public sphere (Washington DC or in any of the States), the panic buying continues. And the gun debate can’t get out of the public sphere, because Barack Obama pulled a classic Obama move and opened his mouth when he should have kept it shut. Now, he can’t not push gun control, because a loss this public this early in his presidency would shatter any second term agenda narrative, rendering him a lame duck. It may even now be too late.

Maybe just delete that “gun stocks are overpriced” piece you’re working on. Do yourself a favor and quit while you’re ahead.

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GE Capital Is Digging Its Own Grave

The 9th floor office sits high set against swirling black clouds scattering snow flurries mixed with rain. And my heart is black as ice.

I’ll give the administration this – blackmailing GE was a clever move. Clipping the financing from aiding gun manufacturers is one way to attack the issue without congressional approval. One unethical, shady, probably illegal way…

Fine, if that’s the way this game will be played, let’s have it. Does Immelt think he’s immune? How many sweetheart deals has that bullshit company had to cut to keep that pathetic growth rate coming? You cannot believe that GE would even exist in its current form, if they hadn’t slipped down the Executive Office’s trousers enough times in the past.

I wonder, how long will preferred tax laws aid Immelt (those come from Congress, I believe) if he makes the NRA’s blacklist? I’m tired of GE anyway; choke it off and watch it splinter.

In the meantime, there are plenty of work arounds for RGR. Other banks are expanding their financing, and the executives of the company are sharp. GE may even help them worm through, if they haven’t completely lost the desire to make money.

Your days are numbered Immelt. I look forward to watching you squirm.

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Gun Drama Is A Distraction From Making Money

RGR prices spiked this morning back above $50, and I have to say my buy from $48 is looking good. I have made big money on every single dip, purchase, accumulation, or wild guess I have made so far in this stock, starting in December.

Then just before noon, the Senate announced cloture of the background check deal and around that time RGR began to settle back down again.

Look, I’m going to be very straight with you. This measure means nothing. N-O-T-H-I-N-G.

Look where we’re at; this whole debate began with Dianne Feinstein so coked up on how many different makes and models of weapons she’d have free reign to ban, there was almost too many to decide. There was no limit to the damage to be done to gun manufacturers. Private gun ownership was in check.

Where are we now? Record sales and surging background checks later, and they’re trying to decide if they even have the ability to mandate closing loopholes that largely don’t exist on the State level; it remains to be seen whether that’s on every purchase (a measure as damn near a plurality of this country has ever supported), or just a tiny fraction of all gun sales – you know, weapons you buy between 3-6am while standing on your left foot in a gymnasium…or something

This is over. The likes of Piers Morgan are now scraping the bottom of the barrel, desperate not to look like total fools. Because they’re ultimately advocating authoritarian controls here. And the only thing worse than an authoritarian…is an ineffectual authoritarian.

I told you months ago that B. Obama would hang himself in his own eagerness. The man who began his first term parading historians in front of himself, pridefully seaking to cement his legacy for the ages, has now managed to choke off his second term before accomplishing anything. He made the cardinal error. Democrats have zero leeway to get dragged into the gun debate, because more than half the country doesn’t trust them with it.

Game. Match.

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Added RGR – $48

I dipped in and threw a couple percent on top of my RGR position for $48, which is way off following a fail to long-term moving averages.

I’m not sure what caused the selloff, but it’s a good buy here.

I’m still being very conservative with my cash. From last fall to date, I’ve played my hand flawlessly, and I don’t intend to start letting performance slip through my fingers now.

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